Who will win Macomb County, MI?

[NOVA Green]

It heavily depends on Biden's margin of victory in Michigan; a >5.5% statewide margin will land Macomb in the Dem column.
This is a pure toss-up county; I'd hazard a guess that Biden wins it by <2%.

Welcome to the forum!

I second the motion....

[NOVA Green]

This is a tough one, since although my gut says this a Trump 2020 HOLD, there is also a legitimate argument which could be made for a Biden '20 Flip County.

Still, I had already gone and grabbed all of the MI GE precinct results statewide, as part of side project I was working on: "The largest City in each State to Vote for Trump in 2020 Question".

In the case of Michigan, Sterling Heights was clearly ground zero, which perhaps not coincidentally happens to be located in Macomb County.

Instead of filling up this particular post with something I already posted elsewhere, here is some detailed information about how Sterling Heights voted from 2000 to 2018.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=386520.msg7604222#msg7604222

Still, here we are talking about a County and not just a City.

Macomb County has consistently voted to the "Right" of the State writ large for every GE PRES election from 2000 > 2016



Not quite sure why the 2000 numbers were so low, since there were 50k less voters compared to '04 and '12 and 70k less voters compared to '08 / '16.

Still anyways you look at, there were clearly a number of Kerry / Obama voters who voted Trump in 2016. This phenomenon does not appear to be correlated with '16 3rd Party Voters, since Trump received 54% of the TV in '16, which was even higher than GWB's bare 50.2% majority in '04.

Like many other large Suburban Counties, there isn't really one major "City" which dominates, but rather a patchwork of Cities, Townships, and even some pretty rural areas in the Far Northern reaches of the County.

Naturally, the first order of inquiry would be to examine the vote-share by place within Macomb to see where the voters actually reside.

Let's start with a map of the 2016 Vote Share by % of County Vote by Municipality within Macomb County, not only to provide viewers with a visual frame of reference, as opposed to Pie Chart, which would be needlessly complex for those not familiar with the Political Geography and Cities of Macomb County.



1.) Roughly 13% of the County Vote Share is located in some fairly remote parts from Metro Detroit, located in the far 1/3 of the Real Estate of the County.

2.) Roughly 28% of the County Vote Share is located in the Central Belt which runs from Shelby Township in the West, Macomb Township directly to the East, and all of the way into Chesterfield Township and the City of New Baltimore.

3.) The remaining 59% of the Vote Share in Macomb County is heavily dominated by Cities such as Sterling Heights, Warren, Eastpointe, St. Claire Heights, Roseville, Fraser and Mt Clemons, not to mention Clinton and Harrison Townships.

Now it's time to look at the 2016 GE PRES numbers in Macomb County by Municipality in an Excel Table Format:

This will help create a "baseline" since after all Trump did perform extraordinarily well here, and he's the only GE PRES candidate on the ballot who ran in '16, and although it appears evident that 3rd Party '16 voters nationally are voting hard Biden, we don't really have much evidence yet regarding Obama > Trump voters coming back home to Biden.

One of my favorite little sayings on Atlas, is I will take a voter flipping any day, because it's effectively worth two votes (+1 -1= +2).  "Bird in the Hand is worth two in the Bush, but more than happy to take the flip voters, vs 3rd party or 1st time voters, etc...  I digress...



So--- I will eliminate Municipalities with less than 3% of the County Vote Share, in order to be able to run some comparative demographics, but hell we still got 90% of the County Vote Share represented.

Here is a Table of the 90% of the vote Share of the County by Demographics:



Overwhelmingly workers in the MFG Sector (most likely predominately Union Plants), and although I didn't throw up the numbers Health Care sector workers are 2nd in Industrial Occupational classifications.

So let's roll through some of these places one at a time:

Chesterfield Township:



Clinton Township:



Eastpoint City:



Harrison Township:



Macomb Township:



Roseville City:



Shelby Township:



St. Claire Shores City:



Warren City:



Washington Township:



Already posted a bit about Sterling Heights if you click on my link above,

What does all of this mean?

Many parts of Macomb County are increasingly representing Exurban characteristics, especially in the Townships.

Perhaps most significantly, even in places within Macomb County with the highest levels of education and income, (Macomb, Shelby, and Washington Townships spring to mind), HRC lost significant ground vs Trump '16.

Not even going into the White Catholic Voters and Ancestry by place yet, but Biden will likely significantly overperform HRC numbers in Macomb, while simultaneously likely gaining ground in some of the more educated and upper middle-class communities of the county.

Has Trump brought any Auto Sector Union jobs back, despite his promises?

Last time I checked Big American Auto firms still running out parts to non-union sub-contracting plants throughout the region, while also having their own non-union plants running down south for certain product lines...

I'll toss out a fun song at the end of post, which is a classic Johnny Cash about working in the Auto Factories around Detroit.

[NOVA Green]

So regardless of all of the other distractions going on upthread, I wanted to follow-up a little more with some of the data points I presented earlier regarding raw votes for PRES by Township / City in Macomb County.

It is a bit strange that HRC performed so poorly in Municipalities with the highest level of household income and education within Macomb County.

Let's just start with a few places:

Macomb Township:   (10.6% of 2016 County Vote Share).

MHI= $90k / Yr
Educational Attainment: 46.0% with a post HS Diploma
Anglo %= 88.0%  (4.3% Black, 3.7% Asian, 2.2% Latino)
Industrial Occupations: MFG (22.8%), Health Care (13.9%), Retail (10.1%), Education (7.7%), Professional (7.0%)
Ancestry: German (21.1%), Italian (19.1%), Polish (18.3%), Irish (10.0%)

So let's look at the % of vote by PRES from 2000 to 2016, including shifts by Party and Swings here.



As I noted in my previous post on this thread, there are certain places in Macomb County which exhibit significant exurban characteristics, and even the population growth (and GE PRES Raw Vote Totals) in Macomb Township, perhaps might make it more difficult than some other places within the County to attempt to use historical election numbers as more stable  baselines from GE-PRES elections every four years.

Between 2000 and 2016 the Total GE-PRES raw vote doubled. Between '12 and '16, there were 4k more voters (+10% increase).

Needless to say, Biden will likely need to capture at minimum 44-45% of the vote in Macomb Township for a chance of winning the County.

Theoretically if "demographics are universal destiny", this could well be a place which swings hard Biden, where smaller shifts elsewhere within Macomb County aren't enough to have Biden take the ball over the finish line.

Washington Township:   (3.6% of 2016 County Vote Share).

MHI= $82.3k / Yr
Educational Attainment: 45.0% with a post HS Diploma
Anglo %= 88.9%  (2.7% Black, 0.6% Asian, 4.1% Latino)
Industrial Occupations: MFG (25.0%), Health Care (11.7%), Retail (12.5%), Education (8.8%), Professional (6.7%)
Ancestry: German (23.0%), Italian (12.9%), Polish (17.2%), Irish (12.3%)

So let's look at the % of vote by PRES from 2000 to 2016, including shifts by Party and Swings here.



Although there are not tons of votes out there, it is still demonstrates how well Trump performed in relatively upper middle-class and educated voters in MI in Macomb County in 2016.

Theoretically once again if demographics are destiny, Washington Township might well swing hard back towards Biden, and even if we assume that Biden looses the Township, there is a big difference between a +2.6k PUB PRES raw vote margin ('08) vs a +6.0k PUB PRES raw vote margin ('12).

Shelby Township (9.6% of 2016 County Vote Share).

MHI= $66.9k / Yr
Educational Attainment: 43.3% with a post HS Diploma
Anglo %= 88.9%  (2.8% Black, 4.1% Asian, 2.3% Latino)
Industrial Occupations: MFG (19.6%), Health Care (14.9%), Retail (12.2%), Education (6.5%), Professional (7.3%)
Ancestry: German (19.1%), Italian (13.5%), Polish (15.7%), Irish (10.2%)

Here are the % numbers from 2000 > 2016 GE PRES:



Let's throw one more data point into the mix from one of the most Educated and higher income municipalities in Macomb County:

Chesterfield Township (5.3% of 2016 County Vote Share).

MHI= $69.2k / Yr
Educational Attainment: 36.1% with a post HS Diploma
Anglo %= 88.9%  (2.8% Black, 4.1% Asian, 2.3% Latino)
Industrial Occupations: MFG (19.6%), Health Care (14.9%), Retail (12.2%), Education (6.5%), Professional (7.3%)
Ancestry: German (19.1%), Italian (13.5%), Polish (15.7%), Irish (10.2%)



Pop increase can close to stabilizing between '08 and '16, so regardless among increased population, pretty clear that the +23% PUB Swing between '12 and '16, was predominately about Obama '12 > Trump '16, as opposed to simply 3rd party defections.

So, after a few additional data points presented, a key question will be is were the massive Obama > Trump swings in Exurban Anglo, Educated, and Upper Middle Class parts of the County a temporary phenomenon, and if so will they snap back harder and faster than the more Middle & Working Class parts of Macomb County in the Southern 3rd part of the County, which accounts for roughly 60% of the vote share.

Thoughts anybody?

[NOVA Green]

What does Biden need to reach in New Baltimore?

Not sure the exact context of the question, since although New Baltimore is part of the "Central Belt of Macomb County", results will likely not be indicative of swings within county as a whole.

Get your point in that this is place which also fits into a Higher Educated, Upper-Middle Class part of Macomb (Plus you get a view or are close to a Great Lake).

Still let's look at the RAW GE PRES Votes in New Baltimore from '00 > '16.



Let's look at it in terms of % and swings for GE-PRES Elections:



Those numbers from '16 were devastating to HRC and DEMs overall, no questions asked nor needed.

Between '12 and '16 there was a +24.0% Presidential swing!

Exception or norm, New Baltimore perhaps exemplifies how hard the "Exurban Belt of Middle Macomb" swung hard PUB in 2016 for PRES.

We can drip the numbers, but honestly part of the American Dream of the Autoworkers (from personal experience and Political Science Professor when I was an Undergrad in Ohio) was talking about Michigan Auto Workers and Union expectations:

The Boat... the Vacation Home or "Cottage" in upstate MI where you can go up and hunt, fish, and play on the likes, because of the Post WW II UAW Pattern Bargaining Contract, regardless of Employer or any Auto related factories, you still all living the American Dream.

That American Dream has now expired, even for many of the proud sons and daughters who grew up in the shadows of the Labor Movement, while American Auto jobs increasingly got shifted to Non-Union facilities from KY, TN, and throughout the former states of the "Old Confederacy".

Part of that was a "failure of imagination" at the hands of the "Big 3" Auto Companies when it came to the '70s and Stagflation and the OPEC boycotts that dramatically increased the cost of gas at the pump. Still American Auto sector effectively abandoned low fuel consumption vehicles and ceded markets to emerging brands from Asia-Pacific (Toyota, Nissan, Subaru).

Other pieces of the equation is that how the "Big 3" increasingly shopped out "suppliers" to the point that even in the Midwest you got tons of Non-Union shops run by sub-contract companies under a complete "outsourced MFG MSA contract.

Absolutely no idea how New Baltimore will vote in 2020, but pretty clear Biden should at least hit 46-47% to be competitive in similar parts of Exurban Macomb County.

[NOVA Green]

I know that sign counting isn't reliable, but Trump support is way higher in northern Macomb county than it was 4 years ago. Doesn't extend as far south as Warren but Shelby Twp and north (comprises most of the county) is shockingly red. Huge Trump rallies on a regular basis. And honestly if you're as far north as Armada, good luck finding more than a dozen Biden voters to rub together.

Welcome to the Forum!

So you suspect that North Macomb (Lowest POP % of County) will actually swing Trump in 2020?

Plus voices on the ground indicate that Trump will hold strong in Shelby Township compared to '16?

Any insights into Macomb Township?

Sounds like you live around the joint, what are your overall thoughts when it comes to Exurban Macomb County (Central Belt) vs the more working and middle-class communities in the Southern 3rd of the County (Sterling Heights, St. Claire Shores, Warren, etc...)?

[NOVA Green]

I know that sign counting isn't reliable, but Trump support is way higher in northern Macomb county than it was 4 years ago. Doesn't extend as far south as Warren but Shelby Twp and north (comprises most of the county) is shockingly red. Huge Trump rallies on a regular basis. And honestly if you're as far north as Armada, good luck finding more than a dozen Biden voters to rub together.

Welcome to the Forum!

So you suspect that North Macomb (Lowest POP % of County) will actually swing Trump in 2020?

Plus voices on the ground indicate that Trump will hold strong in Shelby Township compared to '16?

Any insights into Macomb Township?

Sounds like you live around the joint, what are your overall thoughts when it comes to Exurban Macomb County (Central Belt) vs the more working and middle-class communities in the Southern 3rd of the County (Sterling Heights, St. Claire Shores, Warren, etc...)?

Yessiree I have lived in Macomb for 19 years now. Imo Warren is still solid blue, and St Claire Shores being so close to Detroit will likely go blue as well. I've noticed driving around that there's not a ton of Trump signs down in those areas. But once you get to the middle belt they're everywhere. It wasn't like this in 2016. Entire neighborhoods with Trump signs in every yard. No democrats running for local office. The kind of place where everyone flips off the BLM protestors (feels bad man).

And sure there's the difference between numbers and enthusiasm, and these are mostly my opinions, but I doubt democrats have much of a shot at all north of M-59 (bottom border of Shelby, Clinton). And they don't have enough of a supermajority of Sterling Hts to carry the county. Main thing to understand about most of Macomb is that the tenants of white flight are still insanely present.

Thanks for sharing!

So you got 19 yrs living in Macomb County, and a finger on the pulse of your community after all of those years living out there.

Now--- what are your thoughts regarding the White Ethnic Catholic voters in Macomb, as well as the UAW Union workers and retirees within the Southern Portion of Macomb County?

No snark, no attempt to "own" Atlas / TE members, but more like I prefer sometimes to hear the "word from the streets" vs the CW from Media Pundits, let alone Altas wanna' be pundits.

The Flint Michigan Auto Strike wasn't that far down the road from MoTown back in the early '30...