Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Former President tack50]

It basically shows the "fiscal pressure" of each Spanish region. For some dumb reason 100 = the average EU fiscal pressure and not the Spanish average but it still shows the differences in taxation across the country

I always heard the Soain's tax burden was below EU average. As of 2019 Tax to GDP ratio in Spain was 35.4% , while the average in the EU was 41.1%. I don't know why Expansión says fiscal oressure in Spain is 10% above average, but that's not accurate.

EDIT: The source for the inaccurate data on Spain's tax burden used in that graph is a 'libertarian' foubdation. Looks like Ayuso propaganda. Even though I don't dispute Madrid and Basque Country have lower taxes than other Spanish regions, the false claim that Spain's fiscal pressure is above the EU average is used by the right to demand more tax cuts. In the case of Madrid, the new cuts proposed by Ayuso favor a very reduced group of top eearners amounting some 10,000 ibdividuals.

https://www.epdata.es/datos/presion-fiscal-espana-ocde-impuestos-dato-estadisticas/485

Oh, I didn't realize it was pure Ayuso propaganda

I will say however that at least that propaganda is still better than the classic right wing talking point of "actually fiscal pressure is useless and the good metric is the fiscal effort index" (which is a metric even worse)

[Former President tack50]

Isabel Díaz Ayuso claims that people suffering economic hardship and looking for food in the "hunger queues" before organizations like Caritas are a class of subsidized loafers, created by the leftwing government for clientelistic purposes.  I wouldn't be surprised at all if she had also mentioned the existence of "welfare queens". This woman is the likely winner of the upcoming Madrid regional election. Those who understand Spanish can hear the words of Ayuso in the video posted in the tweet below:

For what is worth that just strikes me as the generic right wing point of "socialism loves the poor so much it multiplies them" and/or general critique of "socialism makes people dependent on government to eat, we must break clientelism".

Though the way she worded it it is basically "saying the quiet part loud" lmao

[Former President tack50]

And as it's tradition for me to do, here is a quick overview of the various campaign slogans and posters of the 6 main parties contesting this regional election in Madrid

PSOE: Do it for Madrid

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PP: Freedom

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MM: For what matters the most

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Vox: Protect Madrid

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UP: Let the majority talk

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Cs: Choose the centre

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My thoughts

-Fairly boring poster from PSOE, and one which is too similar to Sanchez's own posters from the 2019 general elections. Unlike Vox at least that was 2 years ago and not 2 months ago but still awful.

-Interesting poster from Ayuso, very centered around her and she seems to have no PP logos, trying to distance herself from the party. A bold move, but Casado is unpopular among conservatives so it will probably pay off

-Fairly normal poster from MM, not much to say about it. They seem to play it safe.

-A very bad poster from Vox, which rips off their poster for the Catalan elections (in fact Abascal's picture is the exact same picture!). I praised Vox on the Catalan elections but repeating the same poster twice is bad.

-Unlike MM; UP has decided to go with a very bold move of not putting their candidate on the poster. Given they have such a high profile candidate in Pablo Iglesias, this is a very surprising thing. Let's see how it goes

-Fairly normal poster from Cs with again not much to say

My ranking

Cs>MM>PP>UP>PSOE>Vox

[Former President tack50]

Yeah regarding the Vox poster it is uh.... very controversial to say the least (I assume the reason Skye didn't find it cause it's been removed; Spanish courts are looking into the matter of whether it can be considered a "hate crime" or not)

I actually looked into the claims of the poster and it seems to be one of those things where there is sort of a grain of truth behind it but it is bending the truth so much it may as well be false. Here is the background, from an El Pais article which I think explains the whole debacle quite well:

Some regional authorities also note that Vox’s message twists the facts. “There is no office that gives minors arriving without a guardian €4,700 to spend on whatever they want,” said a source at the Madrid Department of Social Policy and Family Affairs, which is in charge of seeing to the needs of minors requiring protection, regardless of their nationality or social background. Figures provided by this department show that, to March 31, there were 3,709 minors under the guardianship of the Madrid regional government. Of these, 2,637 were Spanish nationals and the rest from other countries. Out of this latter group, 269 arrived in Spain without an accompanying adult, representing 7.2% of the total.

According to this department’s data, €96.1 million was budgeted in 2020 to offer 1,903 spots at centers for minors, which comes out to an average of €4,208 per spot. The same source noted that this money covers everything from the salary of staff at the center to food and clothing for the minors, and that “some centers are more costly while others are less so.”

The way Vox makes it you'd imagine each of those unaccompanied minors gets 4700€ every month directly into their bank account lmao (which is roughly 3 times the average wage in Spain!)

This other article from El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish) also does a great job at debunking the poster, but it can be summed up as:

1) No, the 4700€ datapoint (really 4200€, Vox is inflating the amount by 500€) is the amount budgeted by Madrid's government for all minors in government centres

2) 71% of minors under government protection in Madrid are Spanish. Of the remaining 29% (1072) only around 269 of them can be classified as "MENAs"

3) Madrid's government has no power over pensions and social security as that is a "federal" power. (I will add to this that 96 million, in the context of Social security, is basically peanuts. The budget for social security in all of Spain in 2021 was 169 Billion €. Even adjusted to Madrid's population, 96 million is roughly around 0.41% of what pensions in Madrid cost)

4) Pensions in Spain are higher than 426€. The minimum persion for a widow or someone who never married is 690€. The average pension is higher, at 1031€

[Former President tack50]

Social services should be reserved for Spaniards, according to candidate Rocío Monasterio. This comes within the context of a pro-working class rhetorical shift in their campaign, along with other statements such as “the left has abandoned the workers” or “where’s the social safety net promised by Iglesias?” (at the same time, the party espouses an economic platform that amounts to radical Thatcherism with Iberian characteristics).

Yeah, there is a big clash between Vox's platform (I laughed at "Thatcherism with Iberian characteristics" lmao; very true) and Vox's wish to appeal to the working class.

Sadly Vox has been slightly successful at that. Most of their gains between April and November '19 came from working class areas; though it's not really because they took that many votes from the left but rather because Vox seems to have been very successful at grabbing many votes among the 30% minority that votes for the right in such working class areas, stealing the minority of PP votes there.

I will add that Madrid isn't even the kind of place where I could see Vox having some sort of big appeal among working class areas. I would be very surprised if Vox made big inroads in Madrid's poor southern neighbourhoods like Vallecas or Villaverde.

They were very succesful at grabbing votes from the very new exurban "Green Belt" that has grown just outside the traditional "Red Belt" but I don't think those are exactly working class places (though I've heard that there was a decent amount of industry that now no longer exists; which would theoretically point out towards strong far right support; but those claims seem to be more applicable to the Toledo side of the border and quite a bit further west than Madrid; I am thinking here of areas like Talavera de la Reina and its surroundings). The areas Vox won big in Madrid are really right on the average.

[Former President tack50]

To keep with the theme of Vox's vote in Madrid, I decided to take a look at their strongest precincts. There were 4 precincts in Madrid (that I was able to find) where Vox broke 40% of the vote

Madrid 08-002
In a very hilarious twist this precinct covers Zarzuela palace, the house of King Felipe VI lmao. In an equally hilarious twist it also covers El Pardo palace, where Generalissimo Franco used to live.

Realistically however, most of the vote here will come from the part that it covers, just in between Mingorrubio and El Pardo proper. And which is, suprise surprise, a Spanish Army base



Madrid 07-134
This precinct seems to be in the Vallehermoso neighbourhood of downtown Madrid, just in between this neigbourhood and Madrid's main university complex.

And it covers, suprise surprise, the main headquarters of the Guardia Civil (Spain's gendarmerie). Although to be fair this doesn't seem to me like a place where Guardia Civil members actually live in, it just seems to be an office. In a hilarious twist it also covers the main headquarters of Spain's tax collection agency (AEAT).

Neighbouring precincts are all very right wing and with a heavy PP vote, but for some reason in this one Vox's votes spike from around 20% to 41% (while PP remains steady at 40%).


Valdemoro 02-006
The only one outside of Madrid city limits, has 2 distinct areas. In the north, there is an industrial area, with businesses and what not. I don't think many votes come from here.

In the south you have (sigh) the Guardia Civil instruction centre Duque de Ahumada, where young recruits get training and what not; as well as the Guardia Civil headquarters in this town. I am starting to sense a pattern here. Neighbouring precincts are mostly Vox voting though wtih less votes (around 30% instead of 42%)


Madrid 08-130
Vox's strongest precinct in all of Madrid region, with 55% of the vote, this is located along highway A-1, right to the east of Alcobendas. It seems to cover Madrid Autonomous University (not many votes coming from here) to the south and the very tiny housing in Las Jarillas (literally 2-3 households) to the north.

In the middle? El Goloso Army base.


TL;DR: Of the 4 strongest Vox precincts in Madrid, 2 have Spanish army bases, a 3rd has a Guardia Civil base and the 4th, while it doesn't have military or GC bases; has the main HQ for Guardia Civil.

I think there is a pattern here Not like we didn't know that Guardia Civil/the Army votes for Vox. (the most hilarious example is some Guardia Civil base in Barcelona surrounded by heavily left wing and secessionist precincts)

[Former President tack50]

I am extremely disappointed at Vox for finally going full fascist and not even bother to hide it. Like the meme says "Our expectations were low, but holy F***". Extremely disappointed at PP for not being more forceful against it though they corrected quickly at least.

I don't even know what to say. This has to be the most disappointed I've been at Spanish politics that I can think of. Somehow this regional Madrid election has been extremely polarizing, even more so than infamously polarizing campaigns like the 2008 General Election or even the 2017 Catalan election, right after article 155!

Section 151 needs to be triggered against any community that has Vox in a coalition.

I think you mean Section 155 (the one that allows the central government to temporarily take over). Section 151 is a relatively boring and almost irrelevant nowadays section about how the "historical" autonomous communities can be created.

I will also note section 155 is a "last resort" option against a region that is openly rebelling against an important bill passed by the central government and it has only been discussed twice and fully applied just once.

It is definitely not an appropiate tool for this.

[Former President tack50]

I am extremely disappointed at Vox for finally going full fascist and not even bother to hide it. Like the meme says "Our expectations were low, but holy F***". Extremely disappointed at PP for not being more forceful against it though they corrected quickly at least.

I don't even know what to say. This has to be the most disappointed I've been at Spanish politics that I can think of. Somehow this regional Madrid election has been extremely polarizing, even more so than infamously polarizing campaigns like the 2008 General Election or even the 2017 Catalan election, right after article 155!

Section 151 needs to be triggered against any community that has Vox in a coalition.

I think you mean Section 155 (the one that allows the central government to temporarily take over). Section 151 is a relatively boring and almost irrelevant nowadays section about how the "historical" autonomous communities can be created.

I will also note section 155 is a "last resort" option against a region that is openly rebelling against an important bill passed by the central government and it has only been discussed twice and fully applied just once.

It is definitely not an appropiate tool for this.

Show me the evidence. You and Velasco are spreading lies

Evidence of what? The debate happening? Iglesias storming out after Monasterio trying to cast doubt on the death threats and basically making it seem like a false flag thing? There is more than enough evidence of that. (If you didn't notice Velaso posted a link, but here goes the debate if you prefer an embedded video)

[Former President tack50]

On a separate note, I saw a funny Obama copycat poster saying "Yes We Bal". Not really a bad candidate, but this election is not for people who is "neither fascist nor antifascist"

Nice to see the guys behind Alejandro Fernandez's campaign for the Catalan PP to get a job at Cs

Also, I am very disappointed to see Joaquín Leguina (first and only PSOE premier of Madrid) to be endorsing Ayuso, though I think he's moved to the right by a lot over the past few years. For some reason many people from the Felipe González era have moved quite a bit to the right

[Former President tack50]

On a separate note, I saw a funny Obama copycat poster saying "Yes We Bal". Not really a bad candidate, but this election is not for people who is "neither fascist nor antifascist"

Nice to see the guys behind Alejandro Fernandez's campaign for the Catalan PP to get a job at Cs

Also, I am very disappointed to see Joaquín Leguina (first and only PSOE premier of Madrid) to be endorsing Ayuso, though I think he's moved to the right by a lot over the past few years. For some reason many people from the Felipe González era have moved quite a bit to the right

You are surprised the same party that ordered the financing of GAL has right-wing figures embedded in it after it was the main opposition underground institution during the dictatorship and set up to be the party of government? I mean, I have no doubt of most PSOE high ranking figures social democratic credentials but let's not flatter some of the heavyweights that joined out of opportunism/entryism either.

(yes, yes you can point out the tinfoil hat)

I will note that the main underground opposition institutions during the dictatorship was not PSOE (which was actually quite irrelevant until 1974; when it was indeed set up to be the main left wing party of Spain; but for most of francoism PSOE was an small and irrelevant force). Rather the underground opposition was led by the Communist Party (not exactly a hotbed for entryism) as well as the communist linked union of CCOO (which interestingly adopted entryist tactics within the fascist "vertical union"; but I don't think CCOO itself had many conservatives)

Most if not all pro-democracy conservatives in Spain ended up joining UCD (and later CDS and AP/PP) back in the day.

That's not to say there aren't cases of conservatives nowadays who were in the underground opposition. But those cases aren't exactly super common.

The main problem the people who were in PSOE during the Gonzalez era but are heavy Sanchez critics and even outright conservatives nowaday claim is the fact that Sanchez is willing to do deals and coalitions with secessionist parties. Whether it is true or just a convenient excuse who knows, but I'd believe them given it's a critic from many who were even in the more progressive side of the party in the 80s and 90s! (like deputy PM Alfonso Guerra, also a Sanchez critic)

[Former President tack50]

No matter that Vox is showing its true face, business as usual. Pollster Narciso Michavila believes recent events won't change the outcome and takes for granted the right will win the elections. Michavila is a conservative with a good reputation in the polling Industry

I read that Michavila believes that the PP will win all the districts of Madrid. I see that as so... unlikely? I mean, the PP is well positioned to come in first place in a majority of the districts of the city, even in some left-wing strongholds like Villa de Vallecas or Vicálvaro, but winning Puente de Vallecas is borderline impossible. It would take a perfect storm (and then some) for that to happen.

I guess the election to look at for a comparison would be 2011; when Esperanza Aguirre led PP to a massive landslide, beating PSOE by a massive 51-26

Given that PSOE is polling around 23% or so (below Tomás Gómez's 26%, though not by that much); but Ayuso's PP is polling at 42% or so (well below Aguirre's 51%) my guess is that PSOE should perform better than in 2011 in terms of districts

I am not able to track down precise data from that 2011 election for the regional election, but all estimates I am finding show that Esperanza Aguirre came short of a ful sweep of all 21 districts, losing indeed Puente de Vallecas. I was able to find data for the local election happening the same day where Ruiz Gallardon slighly underperformed Aguirre but still did win 20/21 districts.

Given Ayuso will underperform Aguirre 2011, she might also lose 1-2 other districts that are left wing strongholds. Some candidates would include Villa de Vallecas, Vicálvaro, Villaverde or maybe Usera.

Based on an even swing from 2011 all of those would be extremely tight. I guess Ayuso will narrowly lose one of those, most likely Villa de Vallecas. If she underperforms slightly she'll lose Vicálvaro and Villaverde. She'd need to underperform even more to lose Usera, and everything else should be safe for her

[Former President tack50]

Also, MM somehow beating PSOE for 2nd might mean that Errejon's tiny party lives for now (unlike Cs, which looks to get buried this election). He won't get any more than 2 seats but this would tie up those 2 seats (plus a 3rd in Valencia for Compromís if they still go in coalition)

However there wouldn't really be any real national political implications beyond that, and even those are quite a stretch given we are far removed from a general election. It would help Errejón's tiny party at best and at worst do nothing.

I would compare the fallout perhaps to BNG beating PSOE for 2nd in Galicia while UP fell below the thresholds there. (as well as the concurrent bad election they both had in the Basque Country the same day). It didn't really have any national implications.

[Former President tack50]

Huh, interesting results for me on that test

Cs: 63%
PSOE: 55%
MM: 46%
PP: 34%
UP: 28%
Vox: 11%

I obviously can't vote, though if I could I'd vote PSOE. I like Cs campaign but they are a wasted vote and I don't like them that much (or hate the others enough) to waste my vote. It is also a bit of a "too little, too late turn to me"

[Former President tack50]

Pretty sure PP wins, real question is do they have a formal coalition with Vox or just rely on them to pass legislation.  Interesting question is will PP be able to get their tax cuts by 0.5% through?  That will make Madrid a low tax autonomous community by even more.  No doubt some autonomous communities with higher taxes might be worried more well to do will move there although not sure if Spain is like US where well to do leave higher taxed areas (i.e. New York to Florida or California to Texas) for lower taxed or are they more like Canadians where you don't get nearly as much movement (Alberta much lower than Ontario, yet large numbers move when oil prices high thus economy, not when low suggesting lower tax rate not a big determinant there).  My understanding is if tax cut goes through top rate will be 45% in Madrid which is a full 5% below Catalonia which is 50%, and 9% below Valencian Community which is now up to 54% so will this increase tensions with national government who has accused Madrid of fiscal dumping and favor fiscal harmonization?

Well, Madrid has long attracted people from other parts of Spain. Detractors often call it a "vacuum cleaner" or "black hole" sucking up all of the population from the Castilles and other parts of the country (I am sure our Castillian posters could say more about the migration of young people to Madrid)

However I do not know if taxes are really the number 1 reason for that. People move to Madrid simply because it is the region that offers the best job opportunities and job market in the country. I imagine other major cities like Barcelona or even the Basque Country or Valencai might see lesser (but still significant) internal migrations.

Anything beyond that depends on who you ask.

Conservatives (particularly those from Madrid) will say that thanks to its low taxes Madrid is the number 1 region of Spain (recently surpassed Catalonia in raw GDP) and that if only other regions adopted Madrid's fiscally conservative policies they too could become huge powerhouses. This is part of what Ayuso means when she talks about "Freedom" and "the Madrid way of life" and what not.

People on the left, as well as peripheral nationalists meanwhile will say that Madrid does fiscal dumping to the rest of the country; that it has some built-in advantages due to being Spain's capital city and therefore having a lot of bureaucrats and businesses because of that; and that it should have higher taxes.

As you correctly note, the Sanchez government has pledged to introduce some sort of fiscal harmonization scheme, though we don't have any specifics yet.

I personally lean closer to the Madrid arguments here, I do believe in fiscal decentralization. Of course we need to make sure that poor regions are not left behind, probably by levying some sort of "solidarity tax" between rich and poor areas of the country; much like it happens at the EU level. (arguments like "Roma ladrona" or "Madrid ens roba" are dumb)

[Former President tack50]

PSOE don't engage in it, because you can't talk about a fair taxation system without also calling into question the assymetry of Spain's federalism. That's a can of worms the party, internally, cannot open, even if it probably has some political capital in some places. But Puig for example governs with the regionalists in Valencia and has contracts to give out to his friends. PSC can't afford to lose any upper-middle-class-but-sane-hispanophile they have left. And in general the regional barons like having their credit cards and autonomous budgets.

Ayuso is engaging in Reaganite bunk economics with a sprinkling of Convergent burden avoiding, which is basically tax cuts for the rich without actually reducing spending and then blaming other actors within the federal model for creating debt. What she is proposing for Madrid is no better than what the Convergents were trying to carve out for Catalonia, hence my "Madrid Ens Roba redux" comment. Only she is going to be even more fiscally irresponsible.

A reminder that the reason Spanish debt caught people out during the Eurozone crisis was because the men in suits in Frankfurt were calculating only the federal government's debt and not the ones of the communities, where the Ayusos or Isabel Diaz (doesn't matter their political colour) were ordering the public leveraging of airports for every city and stadia for every country. Its better monitored now but the Spanish government in still the one people look for solutions to while the regional governments buy off xyz electorate with either tax cuts or good old fashioned clientelism.

Its a broken system. In the end its actually a good argument for independence of these places. I've made my peace with the dissolution of Belgium for similar reasons.

It is worth noting that (at least for now) Madrid is not a particularly fiscally irresponsible region. At least on paper.

In 2020 it pretty much ranked right in the middle in terms of the deficit, with a -0,05% deficit. It ran a bigger, -0.24% deficit in 2019 though interestingly it was the 4th best performing region that year (with the top 3 being Navarra and the Basque Country which should really be excluded due to their different systems; and the Canary Islands interestingly)

Madrid also had the 2nd lowest debt in all of Spain, again only behind the Canaries.

Of course you could argue this data is meaningless because of how Spanish regions get funded (I like to think of it as a parent giving an allowance to its kids which idk if it is a good comparison); or to built in advantages due to capital concentration and what not. But Madrid's record on debt and the deficit is not a particularly bad one


Sidenote: I find my region's record on this absolutely impressive by the way given it is one of the poorest in the country! CC may have been a bunch of corrupt f*** who kept the region dead last on every metric from education and healthcare to unemployment and GDP/capita and inequality, but they have a surprisingly magnificent record on keeping a balanced budget! Truly impressive stuff so credit where credit is due

[Former President tack50]

Well it's over then. Massive landslide for beautiful Ayuso, MM narrowly beats PSOE for 2nd, and Iglesias, the man that has shaped Spanish politics over the past 7 years, is now gone.

Ironically other than killing off what remained of Cs (for whom 3.7% actually beats expectations even if it is not enough to survive) I don't expect many immediate changes (perhaps a small PP increase)

[Former President tack50]

So who realistically, besides Diaz, can think about becoming new Podemos secretary?

Realistically? No one. It seems Podemos has opted basically for the "leader appoints his successor" kind of succession, much like how Rajoy was appointed by Aznar or Arrimadas by Rivera (even if Arrimadas did face a primary challenger)

If for whatever reason Yolanda Diaz vanished under mysterious circumstances, I guess the next most realistic successors might be Ione Belarra (Podemos' parliamentary spokeswoman, fairly generic imo) or perhaps Alberto Garzón (relatively high approvals and high name recognition, though knowing Podemos I don't know if they would go with another man in a row after Iglesias? They usually made it clear that the next party leader would be a woman)

[Former President tack50]

Ok, so we now have some very interesting maps and analysis to do.

First up, some maps:

Election results by block and municipality

Precinct results map

Correlations between election results and demographics

And now my personal analysis

By block

As you may expect, this was a right wing landslide, no ifs, no buts. The right swept pretty much everywhere. The only places the left was able to win in were a handful of rural "white noise" towns, narrowly holding some (but not all!) of the traditional "red belt" (you know it was a bad night for progressives when places like Parla flipped or when Fuenlabrada was within 0.3%) and the usual set of south Madrid districts (Villaverde, Usera, Vicálvaro, the 2 Vallecas and Centro)

In terms of swings, the swings seem slightly bigger to me in left wing areas than in conservative ones, though I think this is just a byproduct of the right being maxed out in places like Las Rozas or Chamartín; not any sort of significant #trends. Of note is Fuenlabrada's 24 point swing! (from 63-37 to a tie). Though the swings do seem the largest in Madrid's traditionally left wing red belt though again I don't think this is significant or worrying just yet

As for demographics:

-Left wing areas are poorer
-Left wing areas have a higher % of people with little to no formal education
-Right wing areas have a higher % of people with college education
-Left wing areas had lower turnout rates
-Left wing areas had a slightly higher % of people born outside Spain


By party

Ayusoslide. Like we all know, she won basically everywhere, including even in Puente-Vallecas, Madrid's (and arguably Spain's) toughest challenge. PSOE was able to pick up 2 tiny towns; one in the southeastern corner and a rural village deep in Madrid's northern Sierra.

There was a very tight battle between MM and PSOE for 2nd place as you all know. The results are surprisingly mixed (I expected a stronger and clearer divide here) Looking around, it seems PSOE was stronger in the red belt, the rural southwest and southeast while MM was stronger in like urban areas? The working class areas of Madrid proper are surprisingly even (and MM even wins in most of them!) but as soon as you step outside Madrid city limits PSOE wins.

Vox is the only party that remained super stable, so the tool from the official website allows us to see that Vox got less votes this time around in Madrid city limits (sadly no district splits here) and in upscale areas to the west. Meanwhile, it got better results in the traditionally left wing "red belt" as well as rural areas. Very small swings all around, nothing too significant, but it is there I guess.

[Former President tack50]

Worth noting "Wall Street Wolverine " is a 'patriot' youtuber who fled to Anforra, in order to avoid paying taxes in Spain. Even Ayuso's tax haven is too much for him, apparently.  Recently "Wall Street Wolverine" became the laughingstock in Tweeter, when he asked for the construction of a helipad in the nearby Seu D'Urgell, so he could go from Andorra to Madrid and visit his friends. Some people noted that "Wall Street Wolverine" was discovering why paying taxes is neccessary.

But this issue is more serious than it appears. Last weekend  I heard to someone who teaches high school students that youngsters trust these people.They watch the YouTube channels and hear all kinds of nonsense and barbarism without filter, because many people don't read books and don't get information from reliable sources

Ah yes our lovely good old "fachatubers"

Sadly they are growing in influence yeah; and I have not really found any sort of left wing competition in that area. Lots of people like Wall street wolverine and his friends with lots of views seem to dominate Spain's politics Youtube (though maybe this is a false impression, idk). I don't even find him the worst of the group tbh there are some that are even worse

[Former President tack50]

Yes, I was looking for the most right-wing one I could find. Though most city centres seem to have lots of PP-Vox-Cs precincts. What are the voter bases for these parties? I imagine PP is a bit like the Tories here and PSOE/UP like Labour, but Vox and Cs I'm not so sure. From what I understand Vox is a far-right nationalist party, so I wouldn't have expected it to do well in places like that. And Cs?

Well something to note first of all is that Madrid is a very right wing major city by European/international standards. I think it may be the only right wing city alongside Stockholm in all of Western Europe. Spain also has a political system where income is still the primary indicator of people's vote.

After this I will note Salamanca is not quite central medieval Madrid (that would be the Centro district) although it is very close to it and comprises lots of 19th century "ensanches" with very nice appartments and what not. You are correct in that Salamanca is a very affluent neighbourhood (perhaps even the most affluent in Madrid).

Back when Cs was the party that was riding high while Vox only had 10% of the vote, there was a very interesting division between "old money" areas (where PP was still dominant) and "new money" areas (where Cs beat PP). Salamanca fell firmly in the "old money" side of this divide.

Since income is the primary reason for people's vote in Spain, it is easy to see why Salamanca would be such an extremely right wing area. Rich, old money people voting conservatively. As for who votes Vox within these areas? Honestly I do not really know. My best guess would be rich, socially conservative people but I have no idea.

In more general terms Vox voters are stereotyped as middle aged people that live in exurban areas and with a fairly average level of education and relatively high incomes; although it is worth noting that Vox's most recent gains (and indeed their vote distribution in this Madrid election) has shown them gaining mostly among more working class people.

Anyways, if you want comparisons to UK parties, yeah, the Tories are a very good comparison for PP. Cs I guess could be considered as a more right wing version of the Lib Dems? As for Vox, there aren't really any good UK comparisons but it is a firmly pro-Spanish unity and what not party (which in these kinds of areas in Spain does not lose you votes, rich people are all in for Spanish unity) that is very right wing economically and also does a lot of what they call the "cultural battle" I guess.

[Former President tack50]

Thanks for this insightful analysis. It reminds me quite a lot of French voting - rich inner city areas going for Fillon*. I remain astounded by the Vox vote in these places; just reading about Vox, they seem extremely unpleasant. Cs seems different from the Lib Dems in that the former is very anti-separatist whereas the Lib Dems have quite a cuddly, regionalist image.

Is there also a Catholic, socially conservative vote for PP? Because they do very well in Ávila and Lugo/Ourense but I doubt these rural areas are very wealthy, so I imagined it wa something religious. Or is age a thing?

Yes, of course there is a very strong socially conservative and religiously Catholic vote for PP; which as you note is concentrated basically all across rural (northern and central) Spain and also of course stronger among older people (though even the few remaining young people in places like rural Ávila or whatever are conservative, even if they might be less religious)

These rural areas are not rich definitely, but they are also not poor. Pretty sure Castille-Leon for instance ranks slightly above average in terms of income; and it has the best education system in the country.

Though actually I was told a story by a friend who knew someone who spent some time in rural Andalusia for his anthropology doctorate. Apparently in the village where he was staying there were two bars which people went to.
One was the socialist bar; the other was the communist bar. (And of course they hated each other!)

Lmao that is a hilarious story.

But yeah, rural Andalucía is very left wing because there you have a ton of landless peasants working for big landlords with tons of land. So in those places PP is the party of the landlords (Señoritos / Terratenientes) and PSOE or IU are the parties of the peasants. You can also add to that the story of how these areas were left behind by Francoism (what Oryx said, but in reverse)

And as you note there are huge PSOE-IU rivalries (well or there used to be; given Podemos' rise I don't know to what extent those old rivalries still exist)

[Former President tack50]

Here is a fun albeit really irrelevant thing. You know all those "diner journalim" articles you see in the US about "the south Texans that flipped to Trump" or whatever?

Well we now have a version of that for the Madrid elections, with people travelling to the 2 tiny places where PP was not the largest party

https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/madrid/2021-05-05/elecciones-madrid-ayuso-fuentiduena-atazar_3065355/

Here is a very quick summary for people curious on the politics of small rural towns

Fuentidueña de Tajo (population 2136): This is a working class and agricultural titanium PSOE town in the southeastern corner of Madrid, right next to rural Castille-La Mancha. Pretty much "Don Quijote land". PSOE indeed holds 7/9 councillors. However while Ayuso was talking about the "Madrid way of life" and stuff like that; neighbours in Fuentidueña feel abandoned by the regional government. They lack a lot of services (no firefighter service, no ambulance service, only part time police service) and feel left behind by the urban centric Madrid regional government. (Indeed the article notes the agricultural parcels right next door in Castille-La Mancha are more developed than the ones in the Madrid side of the border). All of that combined to make Fuentidueña the last survivor of the Ayuso wave

El Atazar (population 90): This is an extremely small town, communicated with the rest of the world with only one tiny mountain road and segregated from everywhere else by a big reservoir. For people who love drama, they'll love the story here Basically it was an election fought all about the very local issues of a tiny town with a ridiculously small population. You know how in small towns you don't vote for "the PSOE candidate" but rather "Manolo, who lives 2 houses down the street and is my long time friend even if I am a conservative"? This is that turned up to 11

Back in the 2019 local elections, PSOE and PP tied in this village, and they flipped a coin to see who won (PSOE won). The neighbours were already extremely divided and that was the straw that broke the camel's back. Since then the village has been completely divided, with tons of insults and fights between neighbours from one side and the other; who try to avoid talking to each other.

Remember how Geoffrey Howe mentioned his friend who went to an Andalusian village where you had the "Socialist bar" and the "Communist bar"? Well that's the case in El Atazar too! (they have the PSOE bar and the PP bar. Of course not depending on your politics but on whether you like Manolo or you hate his guts)

In the end people here voted as sort of "revenge" for the local elections for the most part.

I am now super interested in the politics of a town with a population of 90 lmao

[Former President tack50]

Also, tack50, are we really comparing C's to the LibDems after everything that happened? I actually think C's in retrospect should be seen as the pet project of one man, Albert Rivera, and his intellectual and PR entourage, to try and make a right-wing "brand" more fresh, out of fear of the PP getting absolutely annihilated due to corruption scandals and outdated views on things like gay marriage. It was political entrepreuneurs trying to find any market available (including describing themselves as social democrats when it suited them), with the only value of conserving the worst aspects of Spanish institutions. They are not liberals in any measure, European or Anglo-Saxon. They were just a very modern phenomenon. There were always rumours that Rivera was a PP asset too, given he hid his activity in the party.

Yeah, any comparison was going to be a bad comparison and I picked the least bad one (I definitely don't think Cs can be compared to any British party, and the Lib Dems come the closest)

I guess I do agree with your statements, but I do think that Cs was at least in part a liberal party in the European sense of the word. Is Rivera's turn to the right any more sharp than say, Macron's? Is Rivera htat much more right wing than say, Rutte? (It is worth noting Cs had some "socially liberal/libertarian" positions, most notably the legalization of surrogate motherhood and I think they argued sometimes in favour of more lenient drug laws. Being "tough on Catalonia" isn't really a social issue in that same way)

[Former President tack50]

Doesn't really look like a super reputable pollster to me; and the Mas Pais surge, even as a reaction to the Madrid results, is extremely weird.

It is worth noting though that with the expected death of Cs, now the left and the right are more balanced in terms of how much the electoral system punishes or benefits them. Cs at 2% is less of a drag on the right than when it was at 7-8%. Vox at 16-17% meanwhile is just shy of the point when they are no longer a drag.

Meanwhile on the left UP at 10% is very harmful; and if you believe the MP surge is real, that also hurts the left (although if MP keeps their pledge of running only in provinces with 8 seats or more, it isn't extremely harmful but it does not help)

To be honest, it is extremely early; I would not expect an election up until 2022 at least. But it is definitely possible that Pedro Sanchez ends up as a 1 and a half term president.

[Former President tack50]

Speaking of which, yesterday Sanchez unveiled his Economic Recovery plan to get the EU funds. And it is one of the first government measures where I am radically against something (the plan as a whole is already meh, but the toll roads measure in particular annoys me a lot). It is basically a bunch of tax hikes all bundled together. The main measures seem to be:

>Tax increase on workers earning over 4000€ a month (before taxes, equivalent to 2400€ after tax); by removing the cap on Social Security contributions
>Harmonization of the various taxes on inheritances or wealth
>Removal of the joint filing option for married couples (ends up as a tax hike on couples where one member is a high earner and the other one does not pay or has a very low salary)
> Increase of the vehicle taxes
> Diesel taxes will now be the same as gas
> All highways in Spain to become toll roads

https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/4687330/0/cotizaciones-irpf-patrimonio-las-subidas-de-impuestos-que-el-gobierno-propone-a-bruselas-en-los-proximos-anos/

Personally I am ok with some measures. Particularly the 1st, 3rd and 4th are decently good measures (not amazing by any means but whatever). However I am against everything else with the plan.

I am actually in favour of inheritance and wealth taxes; but my issue here is that it deeply infringes on the rights of the regions. If Madrid wants to have no inheritance or wealth taxes, that is their problem. (I think Spain should advance towards more federalism, not less)

The 5th one I am against it, but I can live with it. I do think diesel should be slightly less taxed than gas. An interesting idea imo could be to make this region dependent (so regions with high polution prefer diesel and regions with low polution prefer gasoline)

However the 6th one has to be one of the stupidest ideas I have ever seen. Making all highways in Spain toll roads is beyond stupid and it would almost instantly lose Sanchez reelection. Definitely a horrible idea. (it is worth noting that current gas taxes in Spain are already more than enough to pay for road maintenance; twice over in fact)

Worst part is that that is allegedly an EU demand, WTF?? That makes me even more worried tbh