2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Non Swing Voter]

I think Florida’s early voting will give us a really good sense of how the state is shaping up. There’s over 5 million mail ballot requests in the state which will almost all be returned probably, and if a few million more vote early, it won’t matter how Republican the Election Day vote is if the vast majority of votes will already have been cast.

Some of those might convert to early voters.  There was just a news report of people in Texas bringing their unused absentee ballots to the early voting station to vote in person instead.

[LimoLiberal]

Constantly vacillating between thinking the massive Democratic enthusiasm in early voting is a great sign for November and thinking that it doesn't really tell us anything we don't already know because of the expected partisan disparity in vote method. Whatever the case, nothing looks bad for Democrats so far and that is good in itself.

[Non Swing Voter]

Constantly vacillating between thinking the massive Democratic enthusiasm in early voting is a great sign for November and thinking that it doesn't really tell us anything we don't already know because of the expected partisan disparity in vote method. Whatever the case, nothing looks bad for Democrats so far and that is good in itself.

Right.  Worst case scenario, it means nothing.  Best case, Trump should plan to move.

[The Mikado]

(This update includes me)

https://twitter.com/JudgeClayJ/status/1316797131869564930

[Holmes]

(This update includes me)

King sh**t

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Constantly vacillating between thinking the massive Democratic enthusiasm in early voting is a great sign for November and thinking that it doesn't really tell us anything we don't already know because of the expected partisan disparity in vote method. Whatever the case, nothing looks bad for Democrats so far and that is good in itself.

Right.  Worst case scenario, it means nothing.  Best case, Trump should plan to move.

Also bear in mind that these are locked-In votes (for either party).  A major scandal for either candidate, even in the week before the election, can't change them. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Constantly vacillating between thinking the massive Democratic enthusiasm in early voting is a great sign for November and thinking that it doesn't really tell us anything we don't already know because of the expected partisan disparity in vote method. Whatever the case, nothing looks bad for Democrats so far and that is good in itself.

Right.  Worst case scenario, it means nothing.  Best case, Trump should plan to move.

Also bear in mind that these are locked-In votes (for either party).  A major scandal for either candidate, even in the week before the election, can't change them. 

Yeah, this time in 2016 Hillary had a lead too, but less than 2 million votes locked in.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1316805288792453120

Any Nevada experts that can weigh in?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1316805288792453120

Any Nevada experts that can weigh in?

Paging YE?

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1316805288792453120

Any Nevada experts that can weigh in?

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3

 Ralston is the expert in Nevada. Read his blog and he always makes a very solid prediction at the end of early voting.

[mijan]

In Iowa Dems increase their lead to 114.1 k over GOP
IA-1
Dem 65333
Rep 28131
Dem + 37202

IA-2
Dem 59795
Rep 24925
Dem + 34870

IA-3
Dem 61717
Rep 28217
Dem +33500

IA-4
Dem 36741
Rep 28209
Dem +8532

Total
Dem 223586
Rep 109482
Dem +114104

Dems lead was 101 k yesterday, so dems increased their lead by 13k within 1 day.

[Rep Jessica]

If I made a call based on the data I am seeing
Florida +2-3 Biden
Texas +2 Trump
NC +2 Biden. Of course there isn't as big of a sample compared to Florida, Va, Iowa and Ga yet.
Va +9 Biden
Iowa +1 Biden --- There's a 100,000 democrat lead. This is something we've haven't seen since 2008-2012.
Nevada- really early guess is +3 Biden
Arizona +2-3 Biden -I am using a site that has 317k votes in with a 46k democratic lead. Looking at trends and considering 2018. https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns\
Ga-No party break down but based on the racial breakdown I'll guess tie to +1 for Trump.
Wis - no party break down but I'll guess +4 for Biden.
Pa - +2 to + 4 for Biden

The last few are low accuracy guesses.

[Non Swing Voter]

If I made a call based on the data I am seeing
Florida +2-3 Biden
Texas +2 Trump
NC +2 Biden. Of course there isn't as big of a sample compared to Florida, Va, Iowa and Ga yet.
Va +9 Biden
Iowa +1 Biden --- There's a 100,000 democrat lead. This is something we've haven't seen since 2008-2012.
Nevada- really early guess is +3 Biden
Arizona +2-3 Biden -I am using a site that has 317k votes in with a 46k democratic lead. Looking at trends and considering 2018. https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns\
Ga-No party break down but based on the racial breakdown I'll guess tie to +1 for Trump.
Wis - no party break down but I'll guess +4 for Biden.
Pa - +2 to + 4 for Biden

The last few are low accuracy guesses.

I think Virginia is going to go for Biden by a wider margin than that.  Trump is absolutely tanking in Northern Virginia, which is 1/3 of the state.  I don't think Trump can withstand a 30+ point deficit in NoVa will still keeping the are to single digits. 

No prediction for Michigan?  They have a ton of vote in.

[Rep Jessica]

If I made a call based on the data I am seeing
Florida +2-3 Biden
Texas +2 Trump
NC +2 Biden. Of course there isn't as big of a sample compared to Florida, Va, Iowa and Ga yet.
Va +9 Biden
Iowa +1 Biden --- There's a 100,000 democrat lead. This is something we've haven't seen since 2008-2012.
Nevada- really early guess is +3 Biden
Arizona +2-3 Biden -I am using a site that has 317k votes in with a 46k democratic lead. Looking at trends and considering 2018. https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns\
Ga-No party break down but based on the racial breakdown I'll guess tie to +1 for Trump.
Wis - no party break down but I'll guess +4 for Biden.
Pa - +2 to + 4 for Biden

The last few are low accuracy guesses.

I think Virginia is going to go for Biden by a wider margin than that.  Trump is absolutely tanking in Northern Virginia, which is 1/3 of the state.  I don't think Trump can withstand a 30+ point deficit in NoVa will still keeping the are to single digits. 

No prediction for Michigan?  They have a ton of vote in.

If I had to make a guess and that guess would be with no party break down or racial break down of the ballots returned so far I'd have to say the democrats are going to win. This is based on high turnout so far.

[redjohn]

If I made a call based on the data I am seeing
Florida +2-3 Biden
Texas +2 Trump
NC +2 Biden. Of course there isn't as big of a sample compared to Florida, Va, Iowa and Ga yet.
Va +9 Biden
Iowa +1 Biden --- There's a 100,000 democrat lead. This is something we've haven't seen since 2008-2012.
Nevada- really early guess is +3 Biden
Arizona +2-3 Biden -I am using a site that has 317k votes in with a 46k democratic lead. Looking at trends and considering 2018. https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns\
Ga-No party break down but based on the racial breakdown I'll guess tie to +1 for Trump.
Wis - no party break down but I'll guess +4 for Biden.
Pa - +2 to + 4 for Biden

The last few are low accuracy guesses.

I'd strongly caution against interpreting any of the early voting data we have so far as anything other than showing there is high interest and will be high turnout. Polls are going to be a much better indicator pre-election than early voting data, especially because of the partisan lean in early voting/election day in-person voting this year.

[Non Swing Voter]

If I made a call based on the data I am seeing
Florida +2-3 Biden
Texas +2 Trump
NC +2 Biden. Of course there isn't as big of a sample compared to Florida, Va, Iowa and Ga yet.
Va +9 Biden
Iowa +1 Biden --- There's a 100,000 democrat lead. This is something we've haven't seen since 2008-2012.
Nevada- really early guess is +3 Biden
Arizona +2-3 Biden -I am using a site that has 317k votes in with a 46k democratic lead. Looking at trends and considering 2018. https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns\
Ga-No party break down but based on the racial breakdown I'll guess tie to +1 for Trump.
Wis - no party break down but I'll guess +4 for Biden.
Pa - +2 to + 4 for Biden

The last few are low accuracy guesses.

I'd strongly caution against interpreting any of the early voting data we have so far as anything other than showing there is high interest and will be high turnout. Polls are going to be a much better indicator pre-election than early voting data, especially because of the partisan lean in early voting/election day in-person voting this year.

Yeah but given that Republicans are trying to suppress turnout and Democrats are trying to promote high turnout, it seems that the parties, who probably have a lot better data than we have access to, agree that high turnout benefits democrats and this indicates turnout is probably going to be high. 

[redjohn]

If I made a call based on the data I am seeing
Florida +2-3 Biden
Texas +2 Trump
NC +2 Biden. Of course there isn't as big of a sample compared to Florida, Va, Iowa and Ga yet.
Va +9 Biden
Iowa +1 Biden --- There's a 100,000 democrat lead. This is something we've haven't seen since 2008-2012.
Nevada- really early guess is +3 Biden
Arizona +2-3 Biden -I am using a site that has 317k votes in with a 46k democratic lead. Looking at trends and considering 2018. https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns\
Ga-No party break down but based on the racial breakdown I'll guess tie to +1 for Trump.
Wis - no party break down but I'll guess +4 for Biden.
Pa - +2 to + 4 for Biden

The last few are low accuracy guesses.

I'd strongly caution against interpreting any of the early voting data we have so far as anything other than showing there is high interest and will be high turnout. Polls are going to be a much better indicator pre-election than early voting data, especially because of the partisan lean in early voting/election day in-person voting this year.

Yeah but given that Republicans are trying to suppress turnout and Democrats are trying to promote high turnout, it seems that the parties, who probably have a lot better data than we have access to, agree that high turnout benefits democrats and this indicates turnout is probably going to be high. 

Turnout will be high, but nearly all of the people who have already submitted their ballots have strongly leaned towards one candidate or the other, and again tells us very little other than turnout being high. High turnout might benefit Democrats depending on the demographics that are turning out at a higher rate than in 2016, but it's too early to know that.

[mijan]

If I made a call based on the data I am seeing
Florida +2-3 Biden
Texas +2 Trump
NC +2 Biden. Of course there isn't as big of a sample compared to Florida, Va, Iowa and Ga yet.
Va +9 Biden
Iowa +1 Biden --- There's a 100,000 democrat lead. This is something we've haven't seen since 2008-2012.
Nevada- really early guess is +3 Biden
Arizona +2-3 Biden -I am using a site that has 317k votes in with a 46k democratic lead. Looking at trends and considering 2018. https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns\
Ga-No party break down but based on the racial breakdown I'll guess tie to +1 for Trump.
Wis - no party break down but I'll guess +4 for Biden.
Pa - +2 to + 4 for Biden

The last few are low accuracy guesses.

Dems lead now is 114 k.
I think at the end of early voting Dem can get 170-180 k early voting lead.

Dem lead was 42 k in 2016 and 68 k in 2012.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

@Monstro: are you still doing the major county updates? Those were outstanding. Also, how is rural turnout compared to 2016, is it about even or is it significantly up?

[Non Swing Voter]

I wish the U.S. Elections Project would keep a tally of votes by day.  It seems like we are getting about 3 million a day now.  It would be nice to see how that trends over the next few weeks.  Some states appear to be plateauing while others open up, but I'd still expect the numbers per day to go up for a while.

[Rep Jessica]

The Secretary of State for TN just released the numbers for the first day of early voting. 273,325!

[redjohn]

The Secretary of State for TN just released the numbers for the first day of early voting. 273,325!

Jesus, that's like 11% of 2016's total turnout.

[mijan]

The Secretary of State for TN just released the numbers for the first day of early voting. 273,325!

Jesus, that's like 11% of 2016's total turnout.

Yes, its really shocking considering that TN is not a swing state.

[Non Swing Voter]

The Secretary of State for TN just released the numbers for the first day of early voting. 273,325!

Jesus, that's like 11% of 2016's total turnout.

Yes, its really shocking considering that TN is not a swing state.

Do we know where in the state these numbers are coming from? 

[mijan]

Dems have taken 174 k lead in NC.
Dems 270k
Rep 96 k