PA-Trafalgar: Shapiro +4

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is going to be close close close in the end.

Not when the gold standard implies it'll be a fairly comfortable mid-single digit win for Shapiro.

Sure, one would hope it would be a larger win, but I personally always expected this to come down to being within ten points at most this year. This poll suggests about what I've always expected in the end.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is going to be close close close in the end.

Not when the gold standard implies it'll be a fairly comfortable mid-single digit win for Shapiro.

Sure, one would hope it would be a larger win, but I personally always expected this to come down to being within ten points at most this year. This poll suggests about what I've always expected in the end.

It's not even Labor Day.

Sure, but the same people who are disregarding polls because they underestimate Republicans usually put only Selzer and Trafalgar on a pedestal (I'm not necessarily accusing you of being this) so by that standard this is devastating for both statewide Republicans in Pennsylvania and lends credence to what other polls and fundamentals have suggested about these races and others. While it is indeed still early, it's looking like something very significant has to change in these races for Mastriano or Oz to have any ability to close the gap enough.

[Progressive Pessimist]

the polling gold standard. if they say its this close than it is. I fully expect to be very disappointed election day.

By Trafalgar standards though this is actually very good for Democrats. It suggests the electorate will be quite a bit to the left of 2020. This should encourage you more than anything.

[Progressive Pessimist]

the polling gold standard. if they say its this close than it is. I fully expect to be very disappointed election day.

By Trafalgar standards though this is actually very good for Democrats. It suggests the electorate will be quite a bit to the left of 2020. This should encourage you more than anything.

No it doesn't. It suggests that the voters see Mastriano as a right wing loon

Well, yeah. A more generic opponent would likely be favored against Shapiro. But if this holds up he'll win by more than Biden did. In that sense, I meant they'd be more left.