PA-Trafalgar: Shapiro +4

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/pa-gov-0821/

Shapiro (D) - 49%
Mastriano (R) - 45%
Hackenburg (L) - 1%

[President Johnson]

Meh, not great. However, way more realistic than these polls finding a double digit lead for Shapiro, which is obviously not going to happen. Trafalgar has been relatively accurate in the Rust Belt states in previous cycles (not sure about 2018 though).

I think 45-46% is about the number Mastriano will receive in the end.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Reasonable enough. I think the final margin ends up around Shapiro by 5-6%.

[GALeftist]

Lean D ratings changes from the prognosticators vindicated. This is atrocious for a Traf poll.

[citizenZ]

This is going to be close close close in the end.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is going to be close close close in the end.

No no no it's not.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is going to be close close close in the end.

Not when the gold standard implies it'll be a fairly comfortable mid-single digit win for Shapiro.

Sure, one would hope it would be a larger win, but I personally always expected this to come down to being within ten points at most this year. This poll suggests about what I've always expected in the end.

[wbrocks67]

This is going to be close close close in the end.

When this is Mastriano's best poll in two months, sis no it's not

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is going to be close close close in the end.

When this is Mastriano's best poll in two months, sis no it's not

The only person that won by 9 or more pts is Bob Casey Jr, and he is on the Ballot he also pushed Wolf polls numbers up in 2018 Wolf won by 9 against Corbett when Corbett was DOA already this was bound to get close but we can win OH or FL Gov too the polls are showing close races in either states

[Xing]

I never really bought Shapiro/Fetterman being up by double digits, but as I said in the other thread, if Trafalgar finds Oz/Mastriano down and by more than 1-2%, that’s unequivocally bad for them.

[Senator Incitatus]

This is going to be close close close in the end.

Not when the gold standard implies it'll be a fairly comfortable mid-single digit win for Shapiro.

Sure, one would hope it would be a larger win, but I personally always expected this to come down to being within ten points at most this year. This poll suggests about what I've always expected in the end.

It's not even Labor Day.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not even Labor Day but Oct 1st thru 31st the Early vote starts voting and urban vote votes early and rural vote votes last the only urban vote that votes on EDay are college students that register late whom are provisional ballots because they are in between home and school, the rural vote votes on same day because not only they have kids they have farms to take care of and Nov 8 th not early vote is easy to do during Harvest season

That's why Fetterman lead is good not bad because he will bank those early votes early, so Rs don't get your hopes up the urban vote votes really early

[wbrocks67]

This is going to be close close close in the end.

Not when the gold standard implies it'll be a fairly comfortable mid-single digit win for Shapiro.

Sure, one would hope it would be a larger win, but I personally always expected this to come down to being within ten points at most this year. This poll suggests about what I've always expected in the end.

It's not even Labor Day.

Sure, but Mastriano has spent $0 on ads this entire Summer and there's something called 'defining your opponent early', especially when Mastriano, going into Labor Day, is *still* broke.

[Sir Mohamed]

This is going to be close close close in the end.

Not when the gold standard implies it'll be a fairly comfortable mid-single digit win for Shapiro.

Sure, one would hope it would be a larger win, but I personally always expected this to come down to being within ten points at most this year. This poll suggests about what I've always expected in the end.

It's not even Labor Day.

Sure, but Mastriano has spent $0 on ads this entire Summer and there's something called 'defining your opponent early', especially when Mastriano, going into Labor Day, is *still* broke.

Mastriano hasn't much to spend after Labor Days anyway, and it may get increasingly difficult to change and moderate his image. Even looks like he doesn't even bother about that image.

That said, margin of this poll seems reasonable or is at least what Shapiro should get as a minimum. The double digit leads and Mastriano in mid/high 40s were never plausible to begin with. A 45% vote share is reasonable here.

[Spectator]

I’m expecting somewhere around 4 or 5 point wins for Shapiro and Fetterman and this kinda confirms what I suspect will likely happen

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is going to be close close close in the end.

Not when the gold standard implies it'll be a fairly comfortable mid-single digit win for Shapiro.

Sure, one would hope it would be a larger win, but I personally always expected this to come down to being within ten points at most this year. This poll suggests about what I've always expected in the end.

It's not even Labor Day.

Sure, but the same people who are disregarding polls because they underestimate Republicans usually put only Selzer and Trafalgar on a pedestal (I'm not necessarily accusing you of being this) so by that standard this is devastating for both statewide Republicans in Pennsylvania and lends credence to what other polls and fundamentals have suggested about these races and others. While it is indeed still early, it's looking like something very significant has to change in these races for Mastriano or Oz to have any ability to close the gap enough.

[jd7171]

This is going to be close close close in the end.

Not when the gold standard implies it'll be a fairly comfortable mid-single digit win for Shapiro.

Sure, one would hope it would be a larger win, but I personally always expected this to come down to being within ten points at most this year. This poll suggests about what I've always expected in the end.

It's not even Labor Day.

Sure, but the same people who are disregarding polls because they underestimate Republicans usually put only Selzer and Trafalgar on a pedestal (I'm not necessarily accusing you of being this) so by that standard this is devastating for both statewide Republicans in Pennsylvania and lends credence to what other polls and fundamentals have suggested about these races and others. While it is indeed still early, it's looking like something very significant has to change in these races for Mastriano or Oz to have any ability to close the gap enough.

Exactly, they need swing voters and given how Oz has completely 360'd on positions and Mastriano is making no effort to appeal to swing voters and is silent on TV it's going to be very hard to turn things around.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These Traggy polls are partisan and have House effects they had CCM losing and Suffolk has CCM c'mon just because it's Traggy doesn't mean anything

I am waiting for another mon Emerson or Traggy polls in OH Sen, clearly the Gov race In OH is polling like Strickland v Portman 52/37

[Duke of York]

the polling gold standard. if they say its this close than it is. I fully expect to be very disappointed election day.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

the polling gold standard. if they say its this close than it is. I fully expect to be very disappointed election day.

The only person to win by 9pts was Bob Casey Jr he is has his father Bob Casey Sr just like Beshear has his father but D's are overperformed in red states OH, NC and FL Sen races and AK rep it's a 303 map with wave Insurance, we're gonna win Pa anyways

[Progressive Pessimist]

the polling gold standard. if they say its this close than it is. I fully expect to be very disappointed election day.

By Trafalgar standards though this is actually very good for Democrats. It suggests the electorate will be quite a bit to the left of 2020. This should encourage you more than anything.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

the polling gold standard. if they say its this close than it is. I fully expect to be very disappointed election day.

By Trafalgar standards though this is actually very good for Democrats. It suggests the electorate will be quite a bit to the left of 2020. This should encourage you more than anything.

No it doesn't. It suggests that the voters see Mastriano as a right wing loon

[Progressive Pessimist]

the polling gold standard. if they say its this close than it is. I fully expect to be very disappointed election day.

By Trafalgar standards though this is actually very good for Democrats. It suggests the electorate will be quite a bit to the left of 2020. This should encourage you more than anything.

No it doesn't. It suggests that the voters see Mastriano as a right wing loon

Well, yeah. A more generic opponent would likely be favored against Shapiro. But if this holds up he'll win by more than Biden did. In that sense, I meant they'd be more left.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These Traggy polls are just verifying what we already know 303 blue wall while other non Traggy polls have us D's competetive in the Red states but we know it's a 303 map it's called wave insurance and Biden polls are at 48/47 Approvals he was down at 41% at one pt but he is past that now