CNN/SSRS: Biden + 14%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/08/politics/cnn-poll-trump-biden-chaotic-week/index.html

Biden 55%
Trump 41%

1125 registered voters
MoE 3.6%
Sampling dates: June 2-5

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It's time to start shifting a few safe R states into the likely R column, if you think any of them are capable of cracking. For my part, I'll suggest Alaska. I was tempted to add Missouri and Montana, but this could be something of a fluke.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I'm confused. Is this the protests bump or the job numbers bump?

When his numbers are down but you know Trump's going to be fine because millions of conservatives are lying about voting for Biden instead of Trump specifically to own the libs in November.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/06/08/rel6a.-.race.and.2020.pdf

Full results above.

Biden 55%
Trump 41%
Neither 2%
Other 1%
No opinion 2%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Hi everyone. This is my first post on this forum after around a decade (or so?) of being a lurker. Seriously.

Anyway, I got bored the other day and came up with a Uniform Swing (UNS) calculator for the 2020 us presidential election. It isn't meant to be perfect, or necessarily a predictor, but its useful to be able to check polls against a UNS and see which states fall at different polling levels.

So with Biden 55, Trump 41 UNS gives:

Biden 413, Trump 125

Closest states:

Alaska - Trump +4
Iowa - Biden +2
Texas - Biden +3
Ohio - Biden +4

On UNS, shouldn't SC and ME-02 be between IA and AK?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Just wait til Trump goes nuclear on Biden

Tfw he orders an open-air nuclear test to boost his polling numbers.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It's time to start shifting a few safe R states into the likely R column, if you think any of them are capable of cracking. For my part, I'll suggest Alaska. I was tempted to add Missouri and Montana, but this could be something of a fluke.

Don't get your hopes up on Missouri.

Add Montana to the list, though! And Utah too.

The reason I'd add MO before UT is there are too many UT voters just locked in for someone other than the D nominee. I can just about imagine what a winning Dem coalition in Missouri at the federal level would look like in 2020; I can't do that for UT without LDS endorsements/a UUP challenger, and I can't do that at all for many other safe R states. On reflection, though, SC probably flips just before MO and KS just after. There's probably a decent-sized gap between that bunch (with MS a fair bit behind them) and MT (which is in turn less winnable than AK).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Holy s—t. My mom came into my room to bring me a plate of chicken nuggets and I literally screamed at her and hit the plate of chicken nuggets out of her hand. She started yelling and swearing at me and I slammed the door on her. I'm so distressed right now I don't know what to do. I didn't mean to do that to my mom but I'm literally in shock from the polls today. I feel like I'm going to explode. Why the f—king f—k is he losing? This can't be happening. I'm having a f—king breakdown. I don't want to believe the world is so corrupt. I want a future to believe in. I want Donald to be president and fix this broken country. I cannot f—king deal with this right now. It wasn't supposed to be like this, I thought he was polling well in Wisconsin? This is so f—ked.

The Ron Paul nuggets copypasta will always be gold, but beware - the last time I posted it, it got deleted.