Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
Posts: 67,814
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« on: February 09, 2008, 01:14:34 PM » |
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The funny thing about this little set is that they're so unpredictable. Anyhow:
Washington: polls indicate that the primary would be close (which seems surprising but maybe shouldn't be; this is, after all, the state that elected Henry Jackson) and if the people who go to the caucus are representative of Washington Democrats as a whole, then the caucus could be close (but with an edge to Obama all the same). But it is likely, though not quite certain, that the caucus will not be representative and that Obama will win easily.
Nebraska: will probably look more like North Dakota than Kansas, but anything other than an Obama win is pretty much unthinkable.
Louisiana: pre-Katrina an easy Obama win. This might still be the case, but almost everything to do with politics in Louisiana is uncertain now. I say almost everything, because one thing can be guaranteed; the map will be very, very ugly.
Maine: as in Washington the big question concerns how representative caucus-goers will be. I've no idea what the answer to that is, though it's worth remembering that Clinton would win Maine pretty easily if it were a primary.
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