Predict who is in first GOP debate
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Poll
Question: Predict who gets into first debate (12 choices)
#1
Bush		  
#2
Walker		  
#3
Rubio		  
#4
Paul		  
#5
Huckabee		  
#6
Cruz		  
#7
Carson		  
#8
Christie		  
#9
Perry		  
#10
Santorum		  
#11
Kasich		  
#12
Fiorina		  
#13
Jindal		  
#14
Graham		  
#15
Trump		  
#16
Erlich		  
#17
Gilmore		  
#18
Pataki		  
#19
King		  
#20
Pence		  
#21
Other		  
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Total Voters: 50

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Author Topic: Predict who is in first GOP debate  (Read 1081 times)
Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« on: May 16, 2015, 04:07:38 AM »
The latest leak is that the GOP and Fox will limit the first debate in August to just 12 participants (which is still more than the record of 10 on stage back in 2008). Predict who makes the cut (note some of the above have not announced or even announced they will announce, so by choosing them you are predicting they will run and make the cut).
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ShamDam
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« Reply #1 on: May 16, 2015, 10:57:29 AM »
The first 12 you have listed.
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bballrox4717
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« Reply #2 on: May 16, 2015, 11:36:33 AM »
The first ten listed, plus Graham and Fiorina. Kasich doesn't run and Jindal gets excluded. Everyone below that is excluded as well.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #3 on: May 16, 2015, 11:57:57 AM »
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Senator Spiral
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« Reply #4 on: May 16, 2015, 01:16:08 PM »
Bush
Walker
Paul
Rubio
Cruz
Huckabee
Christie
Carson
Fiorina
Trump
Perry
Santorum
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #5 on: May 16, 2015, 07:00:46 PM »
Bush
Walker
Paul
Rubio
Cruz
Huckabee
Christie
Carson
Fiorina
Perry
Graham
Kasich (if he runs, Santorum if he doesn't)
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ShadowRocket
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« Reply #6 on: May 16, 2015, 07:08:52 PM »
Bush
Walker
Paul
Cruz
Rubio
Christie
Huckabee
Perry
Santorum
Carson
Fiorina
One of Graham, Kasich, or Jindal based on which actually runs and poll numbers
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #7 on: May 16, 2015, 07:13:48 PM »
« Edited: May 16, 2015, 07:33:40 PM by SMilo »
The first ten (who are usually included in polls) plus Fiorina and Jindal for diversity. I could see Jindal not running though in which case it goes to Kasich. The establishment will obviously want Kasich included, but there is no rationale for inviting him unless they go above 12.

Graham will be invited to SC, but otherwise I think Santorum can make the bomb Iran argument quite well, and he actually has a history of winning.
Trump has a very legitimate case to be invited, but I hope they pull out all the stops to avoid that mess. He may get into a NH debate or something see as that's where he polls highly.

E: classic Trump quote in one of the articles- they want me cuz I get ratings...we already talked to Rience about it and they want me.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #8 on: May 16, 2015, 07:37:32 PM »
The RNC may be lying but if it really is up to networks, why would they care about limiting the number on stage? They definitely wouldn't pick a polling cut-off that keeps Trump or Perry off the stage.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #9 on: May 16, 2015, 07:43:20 PM »
The criteria will be objective. It won't be based on invites. They won't be able to have Fiorina unless she is out polling others (or beating them in other metrics). I think that is why 12 is being floated as the cutoff. She is currently in 12th place in the RCP avg. But that doesn't include Trump and some others.   
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SteveRogers
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« Reply #10 on: May 17, 2015, 12:32:49 AM »
If Trump's fake campaign lasts until August, he'll definitely be polling well enough to get into the debates (which probably bumps Santorum out). It would be very difficult to reverse-engineer a set of rules that would keep Trump out.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #11 on: May 17, 2015, 12:54:20 AM »
WaPo have their own polling average and came up with this to show a ten candidate cutoff




Polls can change of course but just on name recognition Trump (if he runs) is almost sure to make cutoff.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #12 on: May 17, 2015, 04:10:27 PM »
First 9 plus Kasich/Fiorina/Graham.
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Torie
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« Reply #13 on: May 17, 2015, 06:12:30 PM »
I guessing Christie and Perry don't run. Limb time. Tongue
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #14 on: May 17, 2015, 06:23:04 PM »
The first 7, Kasich and Graham
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« Reply #15 on: May 17, 2015, 11:55:08 PM »
The first nine plus Graham, Kasich, and Fiorina.
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