2020 Venezuelan Parliamentary electoral type event

[Velasco]

So far, it remains unclear how a Biden administration would deal with Guaidó.

In case Biden wins, he will have to deal with Maduro, too. Not an easy task.

Personally I find Capriles more palatable than Guaidó, but regardless my feelings or opinions right now I know little about the current state of affairs in the Venezuelan opposition. On the other side,  I've read in the news the Maduro regime has intervened the chavista party Tupamaro. Are there big differences or infight within the chavista alliance?

[Velasco]

Biden will obviously have to deal with Maduro. I'm not implying he will ignore the issue. But whether his administration will pursue appeasement with the Maduro regime or continue with a hard-line stance remains an open question (let's be honest, it'll likely be the former).

I know you didn't mean that. Rather I was implying that maybe Guaidó and his supporters were overconfident about their possibilities and that's the reason why there's a general sisappointment now. It's clear that they and their international allies undesrtimated Maduro's ability to hold on to power. I remember that pnce I believed Maduro's hours were numbered, because there was a media narrative telling us his fall was imminent. Regarding the dichotomy between appeasement and hardline stance, I think it's a bit more complicated than that. Quoting the former Spanish minister and UE's High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell about the Belarusian president today in El País: "Lukashenko is like Maduro, We don't recognize him, but we have to deal with him"

[Velasco]

Interesting development. Even if they have been traded as a part of a complex negotiation, I think the release of prisoners is always good news

[Velasco]

Interesting development. Even if they have been traded as a part of a complex negotiation, I think the release of prisoners is always good news

Oh don't get me wrong, we're all happy Requesens has been liberated. It's just that usually, when they release a political prisoner, they jail others afterwards. They call it a "revolving door".

We use "revolving door" with other meaning, as you probably know. I get that it's not easy to deal with someone as dishonest as Maduro and that there are no guarantees to participate in elections. Still, I would not be contrary to engage in nnegotiations to unlock the situation. Said this, there exists a risk of being fooled. Also, without unity in the oposition it's hard to go anywhere. It's extremely complicated

[Velasco]

Maduro is playing well his cards

https://www.dw.com/en/venezuelas-nicolas-maduro-releases-several-opponents-from-custody/a-54775757

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said Monday that he had pardoned more than 100 opposition politicians, including associates of opposition leader Juan Guaido.

Those pardoned by the presidential decree include legislator Freddy Guevara, who sought asylum in the Chilean diplomatic residence, as well as Roberto Marrero, who served as chief of staff to Guaido.

"We hope that these measures taken by the Bolivarian government help maintain the democratic focus of all of these political actors," said Information Minister Jorge Rodriguez at a news conference, saying the decree would take effect from publication.

"The government's intention is to deepen the process of national reconciliation for national union so that political issues are settled by peaceful means and by electoral means," added Rodriguez.

(...)

The presidential decree did not mention Leopoldo Lopez, one of the opposition's most prolific leaders, who was imprisoned in 2014 for leading protests against Maduro. Lopez currently lives in the Spanish diplomatic residence.

It also did not include military officers put away on charges of plotting to overthrow Maduro (...) 

I'm reading in La Vanguardia that Henqique Capriles has not been pardoned and is still banned from public posts.

I get the impression the sudden release of these politicians has caught Guaidó unaware, as well as contributes to deepen divisions within the opposition camp. The UN High Commissioner Michelle Bachelet stated she's pleased and appreciates the decision made by Maduro, while the EU's high Representative Josep Borrell said the release is good news and a prerequisite for free and fair elections. Leaving aside this move might be considered an attempt of legitimizing and cleaning the image of his regime, it's clear that Maduro is one step ahead of the opposition once again. In my opinion, Guaidó cannot sit around and do nothing claiming that it's a trap. When you play a chess game and the adversary moves a piece, you must make a move. The opposition needs a better contender at this moment

[Velasco]

That's not good news. I've read Guaido is being attacked by hardliners like Maria Corina Machado, too. It seems that Maduro has chosen an opportune moment

[Velasco]

What's happening with Capriles? He ended up submitting candidacies, which he claims are just "placeholders" in case electoral conditions are met. In other words, he's willing to participate but the decision to do so is, apparently, not final. He has called the election to 1. Be postponed due to COVID concerns, and 2. Feature an "electoral monitoring mission" (dunno exactly what it's called in English) from the UE. Both of these conditions have already been rejected, since Maduro himself said the elections will happen on the scheduled day and won't be postponed, and the UE rejected the electoral monitoring mission just yesterday.

I get from the news that the EU rejects the invitation of the Venezuelan government, claiming there's no time to send a "monitoring mission" if the election takes place on the scheduled date. Also, EU spokespersons claim they requested a "specific answer" to the government in mid August, concerning minimum prerequisites to send that mission.

On the other hand, Henrique Capriles was recently interviewed by El País and explained his reasons

https://elpais.com/internacional/2020-09-07/europa-tiene-una-oportunidad-historica-para-que-venezuela-recupere-la-democracia.html

[Velasco]

Leopoldo López left the Spanish embassy in Caracas yesterday and now is in Madrid

https://twitter.com/el_pais/status/1320356274178039809?s=19

[Velasco]

Sorry for the double post.

Yesterday, some dude named Pedro Sánchez, who's apparently the *checks tweet* Secretary General of the PSOE and probably doesn't hold any other important positions whatsoever, met with Leopoldo López at the party's headquarters at the Ferraz street in Madrid:

Obviously there are diplomatic issues motivating that Sánchez welcomes López as PSOE leader and not as PM. The tweet also states the Sánchez party supports a political solution in Venezuela

It's ironic that Leopoldo López is coming to a country that, according to the right-wing opposition, is under a social-communist dictatorship modelled in the Bolivarian regime of Venezuela. Apparently some rich Venezuelans are buying residential property in the Salamanca neighbourhood of Madrid, which is beginning to be known as Little Caracas


https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2017-07-03/elite-venezuela-pisos-madrid-barrio-salamanca_1408503/

[Velasco]

Madrid, Miami, Lima, and many other cities around the world have Exiles living there.

I know there are Venezuelan exiles everywhere, but I was referring specifically to rich Venezuelans (mostly exiles or opposition supporters, but some chavistas too) buying real estate In the most expensive neighbourhood of Madrid

date=1603908066 uid=11696]

Leopoldo is the leader of a party that is a member of the Socialist International, which I'm sure you can guess certain Spanish party at the government is also a member of. Well, it not only makes sense that he comes here because of that, after all, Spain should be our ally against Maduro, even if the Podemos people would love to ignore the issue.

The Spanish government is in a delicate position and needs to maintain a balance. As you know, Pedro Sánchez was one of the first European leaders recognizing Juan Guaido as interim president, but developments made neccessary to modulate the policy towards Venezuela. Neither Spain nor the EU recognize the Maduro regime, but they have to deal with it. Also, Spain plays a role in the relations with Latin America (due to historical and cultural reasons) that prevents the government to burn all the bridges with Venezuela. Leopoldo López has been refuged in the residence of the Spanish ambassador and now is in Madrid, so little doubt the Spanish government took care of him. Unidas Podemos does not play a role in the foreign policy if the Spanish government

The article from El Confidencial I linked highlights the presence of chavistas (let alone the ABC), but the key word is Venezuelan Elites. While the Maduro regime is remarkably corrupt, the Venezuelan governments that preceded the accession of Hugo Chavez were also lenient with corruption. Corruption and flight of capital are nothing new

[Velasco]

It's possible that corruption under Chávez and Maduro is more serious than I thought, but you have the precedent of Carlos Andres Pérez. The tenure of that Venezuelan president is regarded a paradigm of corruption and waste. Anyway the main question is not which is the most corrupt period, rather it's worrying that apparently nobody is willing to tackle the problem.  There must be a link between rampant corruption and gross inequality

[Velasco]

[
Yes, it's really worrying that corruption isn't handled more seriously. It's also one of the main reasons why I never bothered to become a member of any opposition political party. When it happens, everyone just turns a blind eye on it. But I guess that discussion will have to wait until chavismo is out of power and laws are able to be implemented effectively again.

I think it's a mistake to postpone that discussion. The root problems that undermine Venezuela won't be solved magically by a change of regime. I would argue that chavismo is the living proof of that. It's a matter of fact that nowadays chavismo is regarded a failed project, even by people that once supported it. However, I get the impression oposition parties and leaders have learnt nothing about the circumstances that favored the rise of chavismo. It's not only corruption, but the gross inequality associated to racism and classism. A smart opposition leader should be trying to address these issues and find a way to appeal the popular base that backed Chávez, the poorer half of the country and the people with a darker skin color.

On the first term of Carlos Andres Perez

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/dec/26/carlos-andres-perez-obituary

fter serving as Betancourt's minister of the interior, Pérez's own turn in the presidency came after he won the December 1973 elections. The following year was marked by the birth of what became known as "Saudi Venezuela", as the global energy crisis took the price of crude oil – by far the country's biggest export – from $2 a barrel to $35 a barrel. Led by Pérez, Venezuela embarked on an orgy of costly mega-projects, alleged corruption and a grandiloquent foreign policy as the self-styled "leader of the third world". Despite unprecedented export earnings, however, the country in effect went bankrupt.

Pérez's successor, Luis Herrera Campins, declared that he had, "received a mortgaged nation". Capital flight was calculated at $35bn and the banks were pressing for repayment of a foreign debt almost as big, but whose precise size no one knew. Herrera Campins, and later Jaime Lusinchi, were forced to devalue the bolivar and renegotiate the debt, as the oil price steadily dropped (...) 

CAP and Hugo Chavez are very different, but they have in common the rise in oil prices during their presidencies