What could be the “surprise” of this election

[Beet]

Suburban white Karens and wine moms suddenly voting like Blacks and coming out in droves for Biden, overwhelming every other trend and demographic.

[emailking]

It's not impossible that the DC trial starts in the late summer and Trump is convicted (or acquitted, potentially) right before the election.

[2952-0-0]

Anti-government protests in Cuba, triggered by even worsening food and fuel shortages, meet little resistance from the Party apparatchiks, who were themselves either starving or preparing to flee. The police and military are demoralized, and the communist regime crumbles.

Biden acts as the perfect statesman, with even De Santis and Rubio forced to give him grudging praise. Cuban-Americans in South Florida vote overwhelmingly Democratic, turning Florida blue even with an otherwise disappointing performance for Democrats in other Hispanic communities.

[HisGrace]

Biden refusing to concede and supporting an electoral challenge after losing to Trump.

This is underrated honestly especially if the race is very close. I don't think they will do something on Jan 6 but I could see his team meeting with electors to throw it to the house and try to select a non-Trump Republican rather than reinstate Biden.

More likely Democrats will just parrot their favorite lines since forever (i.e., "election interference! voter suppression!") as the rationale for challenging Trump's legal win.  Of course, the mainstream media and red avatar mafia will put in overtime saying It's (D)ifferent!

How serious it gets depends on how close the results are otherwise.  Trump's win coming down to less than 5k-10k votes in a single state is close enough that a D House may actually reject his victory.

So much projection

[HisGrace]

IDK, Biden hanging on in places like Georgia and Arizona and winning with a very similar map to last time. Trump winning especially decisively in Ohio. Except none of those seem like big surprises.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said NC and FL may vote D due to no DeSantis or Rubio on the ballot in FL only Scott
 Those are the first two swing states of Eday. Debbie Powell is within 3

[robocop]

Biden wins NC but not AZ
RFK JR wins Alaska
Florida becomes a legitimate swing state again and Biden wins it by Bush 2000 style hairline
NC and GA vote left of NV
Biden wins any of IL, NY and NJ only by a maximum margin of 12% points

[Bismarck]

Trump wins New Mexico or Biden wins Florida/Ohio.

[mjba257]

More plausible than some people want to believe, but Trump picking Haley as his running mate. She's a formidable fundraiser and appeals to suburban women

[GenerationTerrorist]

Biden wins Texas, whilst Trump wins Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

[All Along The Watchtower]

One or both nominees RIP

[Frodo]

President Biden defeating Donald Trump decisively (making a mockery of the polls we have been seeing), winning North Carolina and Alaska in addition to retaining all the states he won in 2020, as well as down-ballot victories with Democrats not only regaining the House but also keeping the Senate, opening the door to a Democratic trifecta in January 2025.  I am not touching the state legislatures or governors' mansions.

The ridicule I will receive for this post will only further emphasize how much of a surprise it will truly be.  

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We already know these are fake polls they keep Biden at 39% Approval and he is at 45 in Rassy

[ProgressiveModerate]

President Biden defeating Donald Trump decisively (making a mockery of the polls we have been seeing), winning North Carolina and Alaska in addition to retaining all the states he won in 2020, as well as down-ballot victories with Democrats not only regaining the House but also keeping the Senate, opening the door to a Democratic trifecta in January 2025.  I am not touching the state legislatures or governors' mansions.

The ridicule I will receive for this post will only further emphasize how much of a surprise it will truly be.  

Yeah I think too many people are writing out even the possibility we see something simillar to 2020.

[ProgressiveModerate]

TX barely voting to the right of the nation

[gerritcole]

Who ever wins in November dies prior to the inauguration and/or both candidates pass way prior to the election

[Mr. Smith]

2020 is perfectly repeated, across to other races, this would mean that Tester and Brown are gone for sure and the Congress chambers would flip allegiances.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Trump wins the popular vote but loses the election if Florida, New York, and California trend significantly Republican, Texas stays in the 6-10 point range, but Biden narrowly takes PA/WI/MI.  Even if Trump takes GA/AZ/NV, it's not enough.

[TechbroMBA]

That the polls are right and amongst two candidates with 100% name recognition and strong unfavorables the campaign season will basically convince no one and mobilize only the people who were already mobilized. Trump wins the popular and has a comfortable EV margin despite running a shabby and underfunded campaign.

I say this is a “surprise” since the GOP hasn’t led the polls or won the popular in 20 years so many posters on this board assume it literally cannot happen. Similarly since the rematch has been baked in since early 2023 I don’t think the “it’s too early” argument is that persuasive in this cycle.

So yeah, the pie being baked already and the next few months being completely meaningless would be my choice.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Trump wins FL by 15, but Biden still wins nationally because old whites in the rust belt swing to him.

[Bush did 311]

A large 3rd party vote could do wild things to the map. Red and blue states that are normally not in play will suddenly be in play if Kennedy actually gets double digits as some polls predict.

[emailking]

It's not impossible that the DC trial starts in the late summer and Trump is convicted (or acquitted, potentially) right before the election.

lol I don't think I read the OP or any posts and assumed this was talking about an October surprise. Still got a rec though!