Singapore September 11th 2015 elections

[jaichind]

Lee Hsien Loong has called an election.  Looks like he is trying to cash in on the sympathy factor for the death of his father Lee Kuan Yew as well as the 50th anniversity of the re-founding of Singapore as an independent state in 1965 from Malaysia. 

It will be interesting to see if PAP can win back Aljunied Group Representation Constituency that it lost in 2011.  I think PAP will also have a last minute process to do redistricting.   This is an old PAP trick.  Since the only way PAP can be beating is a series of seat adjustments by the various disparate opposition parties, the PAP comes out with constituency boundaries at the last minute so the opposition parities could not come up with plans on how to divide up the districts to take on PAP.

[jaichind]

For the first time ever, opposition parties will contest every seat.  Also in every seat except for one, the opposition parties coordinated to take on PAP 1-on-1.  There are a few independent candidates in a few seats but overall in almost every seat it is PAP vs one opposition party.

[jaichind]

Some facts on Singapore election system

1) All Singaporeans who are 21 or over have to vote on election day or stand to lose their right to vote in subsequent polls. A list of people who didn't vote is published by the elections department after the ballot, and offenders are removed from the register of electors. Getting back on the ledger is possible only if you have a valid reason for not having voted, like delivering a baby, or are willing to pay S$50 ($35).

2) Singapore has one of the shortest official campaign periods in the world. This year, candidates will get nine days, the minimum required by the constitution, to woo voters. The country also observes a cooling off day, where no campaigning is allowed on the eve of polling day.

3) It is illegal to publish the results of an election survey or conduct exit polls once an election is called, offenses punishable with up to 12 months in jail and/or a fine not exceeding S$1,500.

4) The government created multi-member wards in 1988 where voters elect a group of candidates instead of an individual. The system requires parties to field as many as six candidates, including at least one of a minority ethnicity. While some have argued the rule makes it harder for smaller opposition parties to field candidates, it also resulted in the removal of then-foreign minister George Yeo in 2011 when the ruling People's Action Party lost in his district (Aljunied Group Representation Constituency) in the general election.

5) Singapore also reserves parliamentary seats for Non-Constituency Members of Parliament, who are the "best-losers'' among the opposition candidates. The system ensures a minimum number of opposition members of parliament after each election. While NCMPs are entitled to vote on most issues, they don't represent any particular district. There were three in parliament before it was dissolved for the upcoming election.

[jaichind]

I guess the real win-lose threshold for PAP is will PAP lose another GRC to WP and could PAP win back Aljunied GRC from WP.  I think the PAP is not concerned about losing a single member or two to opposition if it can win back Aljunied GRC.

[jaichind]

Poll closed.  Initial results should be coming out soon.

[jaichind]

What Singapore does is to do a sample count which is a randomly selected ballots are counted first and published as soon as ready as the complete count is in progress.  Sort of like Mexico's quick count.

[jaichind]

Initial sample counts seems to show a positive swing toward PAP.

[jaichind]

Example.  MOUNTBATTEN which PAP won 58.6% in 2011.   Sample count has PAP at 72%

[jaichind]

Bukit Panjang was PAP 66.2% in 2011. Sample count has PAP at 69%

[jaichind]

Hong Kah North.  PAP was in 2011 was 70.6%.  Sample count has PAP at 74%.

[jaichind]

Pioneer in 2011 had PAP at 60.7%.  Sample count has PAP at 78%.

[jaichind]

Hougang.  This WP held seat had PAP at 38% in 2011.  Sample count has PAP at 42%.

[jaichind]

One reason for what now seems to be a PAP positive swing from 2011.   Singapore misery index (inflation + unemployment) was 7.2% in 2011 and is now 1.8% in 2015.

[jaichind]

First possible swing away from PAP in Punggol East relative to 2011.  Of course Punggol East was captured by WP in a bye-election in 2013 where PAP was reduced to 43.7%.  It seems now it is a neck-to-neck for PAP to re-capture this seat.

Punggol East.  PAP was at 54.4% in 2011.  Sample count has PAP at 51%
Sengkang West.  PAP was at 58.1% in 2011.  Sample count has 63%

[jaichind]

First GRC sample counts.

Chua Chu Kang GRC which PAP in 2011 was at 61.2%.  Sample count has PAP 76%
East Coast GRC which PAP in 2011 was at 54.8% Sample count has PAP at 61%.  This was a top WP target for the GRC seats. 

[jaichind]

Looking at sample counts PAP should be headed toward getting 65% of the vote overall if not higher.

[jaichind]

Holland-Bukit Timah GRC.  PAP was at 60.1% in 2011.  Sample count has PAP at 66%
Bishan-Toa Payoh  GRC. PAP was at 56.9% in 2011.  Sample count has PAP at 74%
Radin Mas.  PAP was at 67.1% in 2011. Sample count has PAP at 77%
Yuhua.  PAP was at 66.9% in 2011.  Sample count has PAP at 72%

[jaichind]

It seems more and more likely that PAP will recapture Aljunied GRC.  If so the most likely the result will be PAP will win 88-1 or 87-2 in terms of elected seat count.

[jaichind]

It seems PAP swing in Aljunied GRC smaller than most.  It will be neck-to-neck for PAP's effort to recapture it.

Nee Soon GRC.  In 2011 PAP was at 58.4%.  Sample count has PAP at 67%
Aljunied GRC.  In 2011 PAP was at 45.3% Sample count has PAP at 48%

[jaichind]

Potong Pasir. PAP barely won in 2011 with 50.4% where they took this eat from the opposition.  Sample count has PAP 68%.  It was an open seat in 2011 so incumbency affect is coming into play.

[jaichind]

MARINE PARADE GRC.  In 2011 PAP had 56.6%.  Sample count has PAP at 65%.

[jaichind]

Sample count for all 13 single member seats.  PAP ahead in 11, WP in 1, neck-to-neck in 1.

[jaichind]

Jurong GRC PAP in 2011 at 67%.  Sample count has PAP at 78%
Ang Mo Kio GRC PAP in 2011 at 69%. Sample count has PAP at 78%.  This is PM Lee's seat.
Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC PAP in 2011 at 64.8%.  Sample count has PAP at 73%.
 

[jaichind]

The swings in PAP strongholds seems to be far larger than marginal seats.  It seems the sentiment is for PAP to win but a desire for opposition to have some token representation.

[jaichind]

Real results coming in.  If anything the PAP vote share seems even larger than what the sample count gives so far. 

In UNGGOL EAST where PAP lost a bye-election in 2013 it managed to recapture the seat with 51.7% of the vote.  The sample count gave it 51%.