Singapore September 11th 2015 elections

[jaichind]

One reason for what now seems to be a PAP positive swing from 2011.   Singapore misery index (inflation + unemployment) was 7.2% in 2011 and is now 1.8% in 2015.

[jaichind]

First possible swing away from PAP in Punggol East relative to 2011.  Of course Punggol East was captured by WP in a bye-election in 2013 where PAP was reduced to 43.7%.  It seems now it is a neck-to-neck for PAP to re-capture this seat.

Punggol East.  PAP was at 54.4% in 2011.  Sample count has PAP at 51%
Sengkang West.  PAP was at 58.1% in 2011.  Sample count has 63%

[jaichind]

First GRC sample counts.

Chua Chu Kang GRC which PAP in 2011 was at 61.2%.  Sample count has PAP 76%
East Coast GRC which PAP in 2011 was at 54.8% Sample count has PAP at 61%.  This was a top WP target for the GRC seats. 

[jaichind]

Looking at sample counts PAP should be headed toward getting 65% of the vote overall if not higher.

[jaichind]

Holland-Bukit Timah GRC.  PAP was at 60.1% in 2011.  Sample count has PAP at 66%
Bishan-Toa Payoh  GRC. PAP was at 56.9% in 2011.  Sample count has PAP at 74%
Radin Mas.  PAP was at 67.1% in 2011. Sample count has PAP at 77%
Yuhua.  PAP was at 66.9% in 2011.  Sample count has PAP at 72%

[jaichind]

It seems more and more likely that PAP will recapture Aljunied GRC.  If so the most likely the result will be PAP will win 88-1 or 87-2 in terms of elected seat count.

[jaichind]

It seems PAP swing in Aljunied GRC smaller than most.  It will be neck-to-neck for PAP's effort to recapture it.

Nee Soon GRC.  In 2011 PAP was at 58.4%.  Sample count has PAP at 67%
Aljunied GRC.  In 2011 PAP was at 45.3% Sample count has PAP at 48%

[jaichind]

Potong Pasir. PAP barely won in 2011 with 50.4% where they took this eat from the opposition.  Sample count has PAP 68%.  It was an open seat in 2011 so incumbency affect is coming into play.

[jaichind]

MARINE PARADE GRC.  In 2011 PAP had 56.6%.  Sample count has PAP at 65%.

[jaichind]

Sample count for all 13 single member seats.  PAP ahead in 11, WP in 1, neck-to-neck in 1.

[jaichind]

Jurong GRC PAP in 2011 at 67%.  Sample count has PAP at 78%
Ang Mo Kio GRC PAP in 2011 at 69%. Sample count has PAP at 78%.  This is PM Lee's seat.
Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC PAP in 2011 at 64.8%.  Sample count has PAP at 73%.
 

[jaichind]

The swings in PAP strongholds seems to be far larger than marginal seats.  It seems the sentiment is for PAP to win but a desire for opposition to have some token representation.

[jaichind]

Real results coming in.  If anything the PAP vote share seems even larger than what the sample count gives so far. 

In UNGGOL EAST where PAP lost a bye-election in 2013 it managed to recapture the seat with 51.7% of the vote.  The sample count gave it 51%.

[jaichind]

PAP vote share of confirmed results so far is around 69%.

[jaichind]

Only suspense left now is

a) Will PAP recapture Aljunied GRC
b) What will be the vote share PAP will manage to win

[jaichind]

The sample result system works pretty well.  Almost all the real results are within 1% of the sample count vote share.

[jaichind]

PM Lee Hsien Loong's list wins his ANG MO KIO GRC with 78.6% of the vote.  Back in 2011 it was 69.3%.

[jaichind]

PAP vote share now up to 71.8%.  Back in 2011 it was 60.1%.  Of course one of the GRC districts (namely Lee Kuan Yew's district) was uncontested.  I am sure if it was like this time the PAP would have been well over 75% of the vote there in 2011. So PAP vote share in 2011 of 60.1% is a slight under count of the PAP strength.

[jaichind]

With 36 seats out of 89 accounted for PAP vote share is 72.2%.

[ag]

The swings in PAP strongholds seems to be far larger than marginal seats.  It seems the sentiment is for PAP to win but a desire for opposition to have some token representation.

More like, general satisfaction: voters in opposition districts may be also  happy about their MPs. One should not give "centralized" explanations to such voter behavior: it is not as if some social planner decided to give opposition some token representation. Though, of course, this being Singapore, one always may suspect that, in fact, it is.

[jaichind]

The swings in PAP strongholds seems to be far larger than marginal seats.  It seems the sentiment is for PAP to win but a desire for opposition to have some token representation.

More like, general satisfaction: voters in opposition districts may be also  happy about their MPs. One should not give "centralized" explanations to such voter behavior: it is not as if some social planner decided to give opposition some token representation. Though, of course, this being Singapore, one always may suspect that, in fact, it is.

You are right of course.  Part of it is also the incumbency affect.    One of the reasons the PAP swing in ALJUNIED GRC is relatively small also could have to do with the relative satisfaction with the opposition MPs running for re-election.  Of course various anecdotal surveys of voters in ALJUNIED GRC during the campaign did have a theme of some desire for opposition presence in parliament even if from a cost-benefit point of view having a PAP list of MP might benefit the district more.

[jaichind]

We are up to 50 seats counted PAP at 70.1%.  ALJUNIED GRC results still not in.  But if the sample vote for ALJUNIED GRC is WP 52 PAP 48 then given the record of around 1% error on sample vote results versus real results the best PAP can hope for is to lose by a margin of 51-49.  Close but no cigar.

[jaichind]

Latest.  A recount is now underway for Aljunied GRC.  It seems the results must be very very close.

[jaichind]

WP retains HOUGANG with 57.7% of the vote.  In 2011 WP won 64.8% of the vote.

[jaichind]

84 seats counted.  PAP at 72.3%.  Only  Aljunied GRC recount is left.