Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[Horus]

Running the 5th from Sandy Springs all the way to Lovejoy is just disgusting, but this is the Georgia GOP.

[Bacon King]

statistics and close-up looks at the seven districts I put effort into:

[Non Swing Voter]

Here is my 2nd version of a 8-6 R map. Based on 2020 Prez numbers.

McBath and Bordeaux districts turn into safe D sinks.

GA-2 extends further east into the GA Black belt.

GA-9 & GA-10 switches places as Hice runs for the GA SOS against Rathensburger, thus the new GA-10 becomes a new open R seat in NE GA that takes in part of "Milton County"

GA-11 & GA-14 takes in part of the rapidly dem trending GOP areas of Cobb County. Trump won these two districts by massive 38.9% and 41.7% margins respectively.

They're 4 black majority seats.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1e3dc3ec-4da6-4556-929e-011a57a09a1a

Is this intended to be a fair map or a Dem gerrymander?  I can't tell.

[patzer]

statistics and close-up looks at the seven districts I put effort into:

So the 6th went from R +26.2 to +15.3 from 2016-20, and the 9th from R +35.8 to +22.5.

Yeah, that’s a definite dummymander, those two would go blue by the middle of the decade making a 7-7 map. And if the 1st and 12th flip it becomes 9-5.

[Bacon King]

statistics and close-up looks at the seven districts I put effort into:

So the 6th went from R +26.2 to +15.3 from 2016-20, and the 9th from R +35.8 to +22.5.

Yeah, that’s a definite dummymander, those two would go blue by the middle of the decade making a 7-7 map. And if the 1st and 12th flip it becomes 9-5.

this is still a first draft - i definitely believe both districts will be safer than what I've drawn above. In my second draft I expect the 6th will include Bartow, the 9th will include Jackson and Barrow, and Forsyth will probably be included in the 14th (though this depends on how exactly the numbers work)

In general though, be wary before you take four years of trends and assume they'll extrapolate linearly for another decade. The current ongoing trends will certainly affect Forsyth County but I'd be very hesitant to assume it will continue spreading further into suburbia (or reach the exurbs at all)

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Here's my new 10D-4R GA Congressional nut map.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/66a1e06a-ce79-44d9-aea4-957acb7aa348

[patzer]

Here's my new 10D-4R GA Congressional nut map.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/66a1e06a-ce79-44d9-aea4-957acb7aa348

What's the purpose of the extreme gerrymanders? You don't need really obvious gerrymandering like that to get a safe 10D-4R.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Here's my new 10D-4R GA Congressional nut map.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/66a1e06a-ce79-44d9-aea4-957acb7aa348

What's the purpose of the extreme gerrymanders? You don't need really obvious gerrymandering like that to get a safe 10D-4R.

Lol, I'm just doing this for fun. Making gerrymandered maps are fun to make even though I absolutely hate gerrymandering to the core.

[Del Tachi]

Here's a 10-4 GOP map that maintains the current alignment in GA-02 while denying Democrats a seat in the Atlanta suburbs.  The weakest Republican district (GA-06) is only 43.5% Biden.





Things I like:  the partisan composition, GOP incumbents should be reasonably happy (except MTG); Republican-leaning GA-06 being a clear suburban COI, these iterations of GA-06, GA-08, GA-11 and GA-14 largely copy 2007-11 alignments   

Things I don't like:  Spirals in North GA, although these could be worse; GA-12 combining Valdosta with Augusta; GA-05 is plurality White

Would the GA-GOP be willing to go for something like this? 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's a 10-4 GOP map that maintains the current alignment in GA-02 while denying Democrats a seat in the Atlanta suburbs.  The weakest Republican district (GA-06) is only 43.5% Biden.





Things I like:  the partisan composition, GOP incumbents should be reasonably happy (except MTG); Republican-leaning GA-06 being a clear suburban COI, these iterations of GA-06, GA-08, GA-11 and GA-14 largely copy 2007-11 alignments   

Things I don't like:  Spirals in North GA, although these could be worse; GA-12 combining Valdosta with Augusta; GA-05 is plurality White

Would the GA-GOP be willing to go for something like this? 

Better question is, would NW GA GOPers be willing to vote for something like this? Because they have a lot of sway over the map's final form.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Thoughts on this 8 D - 6 R Map? The Atlanta Metro seats are very clean and compact. The rural districts were harder to be made fully compact.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/23b5b96e-273c-45bb-89b0-bab1ec70a33f

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1442601673315307521?s=21

[Roll Roons]

Wait... Lt. Gov Duncan and Senator WHAT?

They were smart to concede GA-07. GA-06 will probably go R in 2022, though it could be concerning later in the decade if the ATL metro keeps zooming left.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1442601673315307521?s=21

Looks like 8-5-1.   The GA-6 district wouldn't be safe R.

They didn't baconstrip Appalachia.

[It’s so Joever]

Wow…it could have been a lot worse.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1442601673315307521?s=21

The GOP is also surprisingly tame in GA as well for this proposed map. Only making McBath's seat more of competitive seat and Bordeaux's seat a Dem sink. I expected 9 R - 5 D map of making GA-6 a Dem sink and GA-7 a new safe R district.

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1442601673315307521?s=21

The GOP is also surprisingly tame in GA as well for this proposed map. Only making McBath's seat more of competitive seat and Bordeaux's seat a Dem sink. I expected 9 R - 5 D map of making GA-6 a Dem sink and GA-7 a new safe R district.

What are the 2020 numbers for GA-6 and 11?

[Хahar 🤔]

This is a surprising map, but considering that Geoff Duncan's political career is over because he'll never win a Republican nomination again, perhaps it's not surprising that he's disinclined to go out of his way to help Republicans.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1442601673315307521?s=21

Looks like 8-5-1.   The GA-6 district wouldn't be safe R.

They didn't baconstrip Appalachia.

Parochialism always made baconstripping an uncertain proposition at best.

[S019]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1442601673315307521?s=21

The GOP is also surprisingly tame in GA as well for this proposed map. Only making McBath's seat more of competitive seat and Bordeaux's seat a Dem sink. I expected 9 R - 5 D map of making GA-6 a Dem sink and GA-7 a new safe R district.

What are the 2020 numbers for GA-6 and 11?

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1442606625957691396

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1442605253078093828

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

So why did they give Bordeaux a safe seat but not McBath? I guess the Republican logic is that they don't like having a black woman represent a white traditionally Republican district like GA-06. Whereas at least Bordeaux is white, so from their perspective she is more tolerable. But if voters in GA-06 get too used to voting for McBath, next thing you know they'll be voting for Stacey Abrams as well, and can't have all those black women running around with so much power.

[mpbond]

Everyones talking about Suburban Atlanta, but I'm curious about that 12th. Anyone got estimates on that?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

So why did they give Bordeaux a safe seat but not McBath? I guess the Republican logic is that they don't like having a black woman represent a white traditionally Republican district like GA-06. Whereas at least Bordeaux is white, so from their perspective she is more tolerable. But if voters in GA-06 get too used to voting for McBath, next thing you know they'll be voting for Stacey Abrams as well, and can't have all those black women running around with so much power.

It doesn't fit with your narrative, but it could just be that Cobb is less Democratic than Gwinnett, isn't trending quite as fast, and is more the sort of place where you could argue that the trends were Trump-specific (seeing more downballot strength).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is a surprising map, but considering that Geoff Duncan's political career is over because he'll never win a Republican nomination again, perhaps it's not surprising that he's disinclined to go out of his way to help Republicans.

It's really way too premature to claim that Duncan will "never win a GOP nomination again". We just don't know. He could be thinking that of course, even then.

[Stuart98]

georgia Rs more like georgia Ls lmao