2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[roxas11]

All these stressful takes are totally forgetting that Biden is preforming extremely well with independents in the polling

LOL this is Florida.

It shouldn’t even have been a tossup. NC I can understand but anyone who thinks Biden is touching FLA or GA really needs... a diffrent hobby

Oh my god, I hope you cry when Biden wins GA and FL

In that fantasy land I’d cry tears of joy but .. if you think that’s happening you genuinely need a new hobby. I can see TX or NC happening if Biden pulls out some miracle. But GA and FLA are GONE.

On election day 2012 the Obama campaign said that they believed Romney was going to win FL and they though they state was gone for them but as the votes came in on election night Obama pulled off an upset and surprisingly ended up winning a state that nobody expected him to

my main point is
knowbody truly knows what Florida or some of these other states are going to do until all the votes are counted

[roxas11]

To be honest I'm surprised everyone is so focused on Florida when Pennsylvania will hands down be the most important state on election night  

Trump could end up winning FL but if he than turns around and loses Pennsylvania
this election would basically be over and Biden is most likely going to be our next president

[roxas11]

People on Predictit are going wild thinking Florida is in the bag for Trump. It's hard to analyze early votes

well in fairness they also went willd thinking the election was is in the bag for Hillary and that did not end well for them at all lol

[roxas11]

So far the numbers seem to support Biden's narrow early vote leads getting overwhelmed by election day turnout.

Im not even sure what numbers you are even talking about

[roxas11]

I don't know if Trump needs 400k or not

but I do believe that if he really wants to win FL he should be doing a lot better than he currently is and the GOP should be growing their ballot lead a lot faster than they currently are

Now maybe Trump can still pull it off in the end but if things continue trending in the direction they are going right now....Biden will probably win the state of FL

[roxas11]

Any data from Pennsylvania?

Biden in Philadelphia. Looks like he is concerned.

I dont know about data but people in Trump campaign have been talking like they have already lost the state lol

[roxas11]

AZ: https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns

R 1,025,991 (+42,204)
D   983,787
O   711,727

I think Trump takes Florida and Arizona tonight. I am a little worried about the rust belt and North Carolina but it will be a lot closer then the rats think.

Even if he does win both of those state it will not matter becuase if Biden just takes back Pennsylvania..... its game over for Trump

[roxas11]

After 27 pages or so, what’s the gist of how Election Day voting is looking for Biden?  Any reason for me to doom, or is it looking good for us?

To being Honest it looks like the dems are better shape on election day than I expected them to be

the GOP was turning out big earlier in the day but as the day has gone on they started to slow down.
Trump need insane turnout from republicans in other to win and  based on what I have seen so far their turnout is simply not good enough

maybe things will change but as of now I would say that trump is in big trouble if things continue going in the current direction

[roxas11]

To me the numbers that we are seeing in AZ shows why Trump made A huge mistake by telling his voters not to vote by mail and instead show up to vote on election day

He bet everything on the idea that all of his voters will be able to show up to vote on election day

looking at the Numbers in AZ so far
we can now see why that was a such a terrible move and Trump is now going to struggle in this state because GOP turnout is so far falling far short of expectations

[roxas11]

Not even the crazy fools on predictit are buying these exit polls polls lol

[roxas11]

The CNN exit poll has a whiter Michigan electorate than 2018. Seems unlikely. Also only D+4, while 2018 was D+8.

yeah this is ridioulus just based off the very high turnout we have been seeing all over the country

[roxas11]

We literally had a two hour build up to why the early exist polls (which are notorious to start with) would suck extra hard this year and still people freak out 🙄

As I said before if even the crazy people on predictit are not buying these exit polls
than I am definitely not going to freak out out over it

[roxas11]

The electorate only being 65% White should scare the heck out of trump
to me that is more telling than anthing else and it is huge change from 2016 when the electorate was 71 percent white



At this point Trump himself better hope these exit polls are not true lol

[roxas11]

That fact that IN was not quickly called for Trump is a very bad sign for him

[roxas11]

jon king just said they are waiting for the early vote in miami dade
what we are currenly seeing is the election day vote so Im sure why everbody is geting scared lol

[roxas11]

So... Trump's improvement amongst hispanics is real.

the problem for trump is that Biden improvement amongst white voters and seniors is also real

[roxas11]

I posted this about FL on October 30, 2020, 12:48:41 AM

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=407463.msg7704718#msg7704718

You may not like my outlook, but here is the harsh reality

During 2018 midterms Florida showed all of us just out of step with the rest of the county they were and The GOP ended up doing well, there despite the fact that they were getting crushed everywhere else

you are kidding yourself if you don't think the same thing can happen again in this election
People need to wake up and realize that any Dem who is betting their political future on the idea that FL is going to save them will end up looking just as foolish as Al gore and Andrew Gillum did on election day....



I feel vindicated and if Biden does go on to win the election
dems should be thankful that this was not Biden only path to victory

I don't care how favorable the demographics appear in FL
The 2018 election showed me that this was a state that was leaning Right and it is now doing the same during this election. hopefully tonight is a wake up call for all Dems going forward about the dangers of putting thier trust in FL

[roxas11]

I will say this thank goodness biden became the Dem nominee because I believe that had this been any other Dem trump would probably be on his way to a second term

They all would have not done as well with both white and Senior voters than Biden is currently  is doing. Biden appeal among those voters is what is currently helping him despite the fact trump has also made gains among some hispanic voters

[roxas11]

I don't know why anybody in their mind would believe that Berine whould be doing better after seeing what just happed to Biden in FL. The Fact is Trump effectively convinced many Cuban and Venezuelan voters that Joe Biden of all people was a socialist

Trump attacks worked and that should scare the heck out of AOC or any Dems that supports Berinie. If anything the Berinie whould has lost Florida by even bigger numbers
I also think that  Trump would have also won AZ and been well on his way to winning all of the Midwest states.

[roxas11]

I don't know why anybody in their mind would believe that Berine whould be doing better after seeing what just happed to Biden in FL. The Fact is Trump effectively convinced many Cuban and Venezuelan voters that Joe Biden of all people was a socialist

Trump attacks worked and that should scare the heck out of AOC or any Dems that supports Berinie. If anything the Berinie whould has lost Florida by even bigger numbers
I also think the Trump would have also won AZ and been well on his way to winning all of the Midwest states.

When Clinton loses, it’s Bernie’s fault. If Biden loses, it’s also Bernie’s fault.

I never said that anything like that

I simply saiid that he whould have done worse in FL and AZ had he been the nominie

[roxas11]

I don't know why anybody in their mind would believe that Berine whould be doing better after seeing what just happed to Biden in FL. The Fact is Trump effectively convinced many Cuban and Venezuelan voters that Joe Biden of all people was a socialist

Trump attacks worked and that should scare the heck out of AOC or any Dems that supports Berinie. If anything the Berinie whould has lost Florida by even bigger numbers
I also think that  Trump would have also won AZ and been well on his way to winning all of the Midwest states.

Bernie would have gotten other votes than Biden couldn't get.  Bernie had been very good at attracting apolitical voters, unlike Biden and other centrists, because he brings up issues the likes of Biden ignore.  Like you said, Trump and Republicans call everyone a communist or whatever, so there was nothing to gain by nominating a centrist like Biden.
Also if you think Bernie would have lost Arizona, you know absolutely nothing about Arizona and why it is becoming a blue state.  

Exactly, Bernie would've won Arizona very handily. This is just mind-numbing right now.

What universe are you guys living in lol

the two dem that AZ just elected are Mark Kelly and Kristen Sinema
they are the furthest from Berinie as you possibly can get

[roxas11]

I don't know why anybody in their mind would believe that Berine whould be doing better after seeing what just happed to Biden in FL. The Fact is Trump effectively convinced many Cuban and Venezuelan voters that Joe Biden of all people was a socialist

Trump attacks worked and that should scare the heck out of AOC or any Dems that supports Berinie. If anything the Berinie whould has lost Florida by even bigger numbers
I also think that  Trump would have also won AZ and been well on his way to winning all of the Midwest states.

Bernie would have gotten other votes than Biden couldn't get.  Bernie had been very good at attracting apolitical voters, unlike Biden and other centrists, because he brings up issues the likes of Biden ignore.  Like you said, Trump and Republicans call everyone a communist or whatever, so there was nothing to gain by nominating a centrist like Biden.
Also if you think Bernie would have lost Arizona, you know absolutely nothing about Arizona and why it is becoming a blue state.  

Exactly, Bernie would've won Arizona very handily. This is just mind-numbing right now.

What universe are you guys living in lol

the two dem that AZ just elected are Mark Kelly and Kristen Sinema
they are the furthest from Berinie as you possibly can get

Berinie?  You don't even know what his name is, and you expect us to take you seriously?

Those were the Democrats that were on the ballot, and thy voted for them.  What makes you think they wouldn't have voted for another Democrat.  Stop trolling now.

So you mock me for making an honest mistake yet you yourself also misspelled the word "they"

[roxas11]

I hate to say this but I feel like how close this election ended up being plus how things went downballot probably ensures Biden doesn’t run for re-election if he comes out on top.

That and the fact he'll be 82.

After what happened, does anyone on here think Kamala Harris would win if she ran in 2024 to succeed Biden?

That depends on how things are going in 2024 and who she chooses as her VP will make a huge difference

It would not suprise me at all if her pick is either someone of Cuban ethnicity from Florida or Someone from the Midwest who can balance to ticket like Biden did for Obama in 2008

plus If Biden ends up being popular that will definitely benefit Haris but a lot will depend on what she does over the next 4 years.

[roxas11]

Yikes Arizona feels like it’s sliding away

It is sliding away.......from Trump lol

[roxas11]

Ummm....are these AZ numbers bad for Biden?

no its bad for trump because he needs to do way better than this if he want to retake the lead