IA-Selzer: Trump +7

[Ljube]

Trump is going to win the election again.

[Ljube]

Why are posters on here losing their sanity over this one poll? This is a habit of Atlas' which I've never understood.

Because this “one poll” is iconic for predicting the massive Trump surge in the Midwest in 2016.

[Ljube]

Now watch some of the self-anointed election experts extrapolate this one poll to make the argument that Trump is going to win the election.

Oh wait - it's already happening. Never change, Atlas

I extrapolated the same poll in 2016 and got Trump winning Michigan and Pennsylvania.
What is your point?

[Ljube]

The number of good high quality polls for Biden over the past month is well over 30 and the number of good high quality polls for Trump over the past month is 1 (this one).

Same as in 2016.

[Ljube]

I understand Selzer is great at polling Iowa and that Iowa can predict trends of the white working class. However, Biden is still up by 8.6 in the NPV. Let's say that there's another systematic polling issue in the upper Midwest and Biden is in danger of losing one or more of MN/WI/MI/PA. So if Biden is underperforming his polls in this region, where is that +8.6 coming from? It can't be all from votes in safe blue states, and a lot of the safe red states (like IN, MO, etc.) have similar profile as Iowa and Biden is underperforming there. Let's say Florida is close as usual. Then this suggest to me that in this scenario Biden would be overperforming his polling in the Sun Belt, in particular AZ, TX, GA, and NC, and winning those states. So unless there's a big polling error in the NPV and Biden is actually only up by 4, then I still feel good about Biden's chances.

Biden is not up +8.6. Nevada early vote is consistent with a national margin of Biden+5, possibly Biden+4.

[Ljube]

Very distressing. Seeing what Republicans are doing in Texas and beyond to suppress the vote, I don't understand how anyone can vote for them. This is not going to end very well.

Because nobody in their right mind wants Biden lockdowns, taxes and recession.

[Ljube]

Very distressing. Seeing what Republicans are doing in Texas and beyond to suppress the vote, I don't understand how anyone can vote for them. This is not going to end very well.

Because nobody in their right mind wants Biden lockdowns, taxes and recession.

Biden's economic plan would create more jobs than Trump's.

That's simply not true. The recession is already happening. The stock market crash is a reaction to a probable Biden win. If he actually wins, the stock market is going to reach the levels from the beginning of the COVID crisis, unless a big stimulus package is passed.

I mean, the economy is in deep trouble right now and the people want to elect someone who they think will be worse at handling the economy than his opponent. This is completely illogical to me.

[Ljube]

Very distressing. Seeing what Republicans are doing in Texas and beyond to suppress the vote, I don't understand how anyone can vote for them. This is not going to end very well.

Because nobody in their right mind wants Biden lockdowns, taxes and recession.

So that makes it ok to steal an election? Look at what is happening in Texas and what has been happening with the post office. And you endorsed it in the early voting thread. Do you have an excuse for that or are you just a russian troll here to stir up things?

No, of course it's not ok. Do you think I support any of that?
Their efforts to throw out 100k votes will be unsuccessful. I don't even know why they are trying.

[Ljube]

Very distressing. Seeing what Republicans are doing in Texas and beyond to suppress the vote, I don't understand how anyone can vote for them. This is not going to end very well.

Because nobody in their right mind wants Biden lockdowns, taxes and recession.

Biden's economic plan would create more jobs than Trump's.

That's simply not true. The recession is already happening. The stock market crash is a reaction to a probable Biden win. If he actually wins, the stock market is going to reach the levels from the beginning of the COVID crisis, unless a big stimulus package is passed.

I mean, the economy is in deep trouble right now and the people want to elect someone who they think will be worse at handling the economy than his opponent. This is completely illogical to me.

Trump is an incompetent fool who screwed up the Covid response which is causing our current economic problems. If people felt safer they would go out more to restaurants, movies etc. He will be the downfall of America. Perhaps that is why you support him.

You don't know what you are talking about. Just look at what's going on in Europe. They supposedly handled the COVID response in the right way and they are in such a deep trouble now that they were forced to impose new lockdowns.

[Ljube]

Very distressing. Seeing what Republicans are doing in Texas and beyond to suppress the vote, I don't understand how anyone can vote for them. This is not going to end very well.

Because nobody in their right mind wants Biden lockdowns, taxes and recession.

Biden's economic plan would create more jobs than Trump's.

That's simply not true. The recession is already happening. The stock market crash is a reaction to a probable Biden win. If he actually wins, the stock market is going to reach the levels from the beginning of the COVID crisis, unless a big stimulus package is passed.

I mean, the economy is in deep trouble right now and the people want to elect someone who they think will be worse at handling the economy than his opponent. This is completely illogical to me.

Trump is an incompetent fool who screwed up the Covid response which is causing our current economic problems. If people felt safer they would go out more to restaurants, movies etc. He will be the downfall of America. Perhaps that is why you support him.

You don't know what you are talking about. Just look at what's going on in Europe. They supposedly handled the COVID response in the right way and they are in such a deep trouble now that they were forced to impose new lockdowns.

No, Europe didn't handle it the right way. Certain countries, like Germany, did. South Korea or Singapore are good examples as well. We couldn't even get the basics right, such as our leader telling everyone to put on a mask!

South Korea and Singapore are not applicable to the western democracies.
The people in the western democracies are free and they don't like being told what to do.

[Ljube]

Very distressing. Seeing what Republicans are doing in Texas and beyond to suppress the vote, I don't understand how anyone can vote for them. This is not going to end very well.

Because nobody in their right mind wants Biden lockdowns, taxes and recession.

Biden's economic plan would create more jobs than Trump's.

That's simply not true. The recession is already happening. The stock market crash is a reaction to a probable Biden win. If he actually wins, the stock market is going to reach the levels from the beginning of the COVID crisis, unless a big stimulus package is passed.

I mean, the economy is in deep trouble right now and the people want to elect someone who they think will be worse at handling the economy than his opponent. This is completely illogical to me.

Trump is an incompetent fool who screwed up the Covid response which is causing our current economic problems. If people felt safer they would go out more to restaurants, movies etc. He will be the downfall of America. Perhaps that is why you support him.

You don't know what you are talking about. Just look at what's going on in Europe. They supposedly handled the COVID response in the right way and they are in such a deep trouble now that they were forced to impose new lockdowns.

Yes. Not every country has a Jacinda Ardern when they need one

She is the Prime Minister of an isolated island.

Sure, Trump could have introduced a ban on travel from all countries, like she did. If he had done that at the time he imposed the China travel ban, COVID would have been eradicated in the United States. But America would have had to stay isolated to keep COVID out.

[Ljube]

I’d just like to remind everyone freaking out of one more thing:

Even IF we were to assume that Iowa is in fact gone for Dems, that it will continue to trend if not swing right, and even IF we were to assume that this is indicative of polling being off in the more critical midwest/rust belt states again and IF we assume that means they are very close again... That does not mean Trump will end up on the winning side of them all again. Biden only needs a swing of LESS THAN A POINT in three states from 2016 to win. Iowa is not among them. ALL indications are he is going to get that and then some. And that’s without even getting into his leads and competitiveness in sun belt states that Hillary never had, states which have effectively no correlation to midwest/rust belt states. It would be real funny if the polls do indeed turn out to have overestimated Biden’s strength with rural Northern whites, only to have ALSO underestimated his strength with Hispanics in Texas or something so he easily wins anyway. That would still be a possibility and we won’t know until it happens or doesn’t. But overall, the VAST majority of polls are still looking real good for Biden right now.

This is true. Even though the race in WI, PA, MI and MN is probably close, Biden may win all of them. The same was true in 2016.