OK-Gov 2022: Dream the Impossible Dream?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Democrats do actually enjoy an edge on education, at least in red states. Many voters trust the GOP government to stop 'CRT' but want to stop them from defunding public schools. For instance, Indiana had a Democratic suuperintendent quite recently.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

People need to stop thinking about this as D vs R. Everyone remembers Hofmeister was a Republican until like last week.

This is akin to running Greg Orman against Sam Brownback in 2014.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

What counties do ya'll think Hoftmeiser wins? Does she wins any CDs?

For counties, she prolly wins Oklahoma County given how things are going. I think there's a good chance she wins Trump + 14 Cleveland County because of it's suburban nature and Norman; Edmonson won it in 2018.

Tulsa County is quite a tough carry for a Dem but it's def possible if Stitt is really that unpopular. She could also carry a few of the heavily native counties such as Muskogee and Cherokee (which Edmonson won in 2018, Muskogee by just 1 vote). McIntosh, Payne, and Okmulgee counties are also possible I suppose.

Finally the only other county I could see her carrying is Comanche County home to Lawton. Stitt narrowly won it in 2018.

Unless Hofmeister absolutely nosedives into oblivion, she is winning Oklahoma County. I feel like people forget how close Biden was to winning it. If Hofmeister manages > 40% (much likelier than not, in my opinion) she is probably winning Cleveland.

Beyond those 2: I don't think the difference in counties between a healthy Stitt win vs a narrow Hofmeister win is necessarily all that great. At least not like it would be with a Democrat in the past winning a bunch of rural counties. With a uniform swing, a narrow Hofmeister win is possible with only 6 counties: Oklahoma, Tulsa, Cleveland, Comanche, Payne, and Cherokee. Obviously it won't be an exact uniform swing, but I think the likeliest counties for Hofmeister to win are all from that list, whether she wins or loses. It's just a question of how many she wins.

Beyond those 6: Muskogee is worth watching. Okmulgee on paper seems interesting, but it actually hasn't shown it's ancestral D character much in awhile, as far as I know. If I had to add another wildcard county, it would actually be Pontotoc, not McIntosh. Pontotoc voted for Medicaid expansion, and I think a Hofmeister win would likely closely resemble the Medicaid expansion map.

If Hofmeister gets only around the vote share that Edmondson did, my guess would be she trades Muskogee for Tulsa.

A bit off topic but how do you think Oklahoma county goes in the senate race? Will Mullin and Lankford carry it or will trends end the county sweep?

I think Kendra Horn carries it but Madison doesn't.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Daily reminder everyone knows Hofmeister was a Republican until like last week so radical socialist attacks (the entire GOP playbook, essentially) don't work.