PRE-ELECTION CHATTER THREAD (SENATE/HOUSE RACES)

[Torie]

Is there a possibility of a pundit-embarrasment tomorrow?

Of course.  Is it more than remotely possible?  F no!

[Torie]

Here is Jay Cost's election analysis from the weekly standard.  GOP +75 in the House, +9 in the Senate. The dirty little secret is that everybody in the end, is a slave to the generic poll numbers, and nobody knows which are right. Oh dear.

The most important race to watch early on is IN-2 in my opinion. If the GOP wins or breaks even there, it should be a 60 plus seat night for them. Conversely, if the GOP does not at least break even in IN-9, then the GOP net is going to be less than 50 seats, with control of the House in some substantial doubt. Unless of course, the results in these two seats prove idiosyncratic. And if KY-3 falls, the sky is the limit. I am not sure how valuable what happens in KY-6 will be, which is more about whether the Dem is sufficiently blue dog and anti Obama enough. Ditto later on, with WV-1.

[Torie]

Interesting, the couple next door to me on the north, and two doors down to the south are all registered Dems, and both couples shocked me when  they told me this morning that they were voting a straight GOP ticket this time. Politics came up because I decided to lobby them on the Pot Prop and some of the other propositions). I had to persuade them to vote Dem for the local assembly race. (The Indian couple just to the south are Republican, whose politics is about the same as States, so I know how they voted.  )

I don't think the Dems are going to do very well in my precinct this year - at all.

[Torie]

Muhlenberg Exit Poll in PA from 7-10 AM:

Toomey - 51%

Sestak - 47%


I'm thinking this was just a rounding error since 2% of voters clearly aren't writing someone in for this race.

I bet dollars to donuts that that poll is only PA-15. Otherwise, why would the poll have just that one race covered (Dent up by 11% or something), and why is the sample only 2% black? Campaign spot has a link to the actual poll sheet. 

[Torie]

Yeah, that exit poll better not be from PA 15 because Toomey is supposed to have strong numbers out of the region.

Not to worry Phil. PA-15 was 2% more Dem than the state as a whole for Obama (the man really on the ballot everywhere) in 2008, with Obama getting a 12% margin, versus 10% for the state (I just looked it up on LEIPS, cuz I am a premium member )). Plus exit polls tend to have a bit of a Dem bias (just why a Pubbie would go to a polling place if it could at all be avoided, escapes me ).  

[Torie]

How on earth did we all miss CT-2 from the dead  Dem list?    A Pubbie, after about 20 hits from the bong and a few lines, might begun to have hallucinations that the Pubbie House count from New England might go from zero, to double digits.

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[Torie]

By the way, I could not move my gym appointment up, so I won't be back home to watch the elections until about 9pm EST.  I hope you all can tolerate my absence.

[Torie]

From Campaign Spot. Ah the hype builds ... and builds ... and builds.

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[Torie]

From Campaign Spot. Ah the hype builds ... and builds ... and builds.

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The only thing the Democrats even had a shot at in FL was the governorship anyway... glad I predicted it for Scott.

Was he saying everything in Florida or everything in the country?

From the context, it is clear that everything means everything in Florida.

Nothing Rendell says has any informational content. He has been saying things have been great for the Dems all along, and no story verifies his big black turnout hype. I mean, really, it is like relying on Biden to tell you how things are going to turn out in elections.