3rd debate

[2952-0-0]

Debate one: Kerry definitely won
VP debate: tie-slight Cheney
Debate two: tie-slight Kerry

Hmm. If Bush wants to win he needs a blowout.

[Horus]

Kerry will win, but it won't be a blowout.

[MODU]

This will be interesting to see.  Kerry has gone as far as to project himself as "sweeping" the debates (though he didn't win the second one).  Bush has been downplayed on the domestic debate front.  If Bush even statistically pulls a tie in this debate, Kerry's momentum is gone.  If Bush actually "wins" the debate (which would be amusing to see since it would throw mud in the face of mainstream media), then the election is over.

I'm projecting that this debate will be a tie, as in the second debate.

[Silent Hunter]

Bush was better on domestic in the second, so it's going to be Bush narrowly. Kerry's momentum will be gone by Friday.

[TheBulldog]

Kerry victory

[Reaganfan]

Actually, I think since it was the weekend, more democrats polled, I think the debates were SO FAR:

1st: Kerry won
VP: Cheney HUGE WIN
2nd: Bush won

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

1st debate - huge Kerry win
VP debate - tie
2nd debate - slight Kerry win

Tonight.....Kerry blowout.  Kerry will make sense, Bush will be crying "Mass. liberal" as so many have before him. 

[shankbear]

Hey Puck,

LIBERAL....if it walks like a duck, looks like a duck and quacks like a duck.....it's probably a duck.

[M]

First debate- Definite Kerry win.
Second- Definite Cheney win, impact slight because it's Veeps.
Third- Slight Bush win.
Fourth- predict a slight Bush win.

[lidaker]

First debate: Huge Kerry win
VP debate: Slight Cheney win
Second debate: Tie to slight Kerry win
Third debate prediction: Kerry win, I'm not sure how big

[DFLofMN]

Looking at the last two, it depends on who you like beforehand to some degree!!! Read this pdf from SurveyUSA which includes the VP and the first presidential debate

http://www.surveyusa.com/Scorecards/VPDebateWinnerLoserByRegion041006.pdf

[CARLHAYDEN]

First debate- Definite Kerry win.
Second- Definite Cheney win, impact slight because it's Veeps.
Third- Slight Bush win.
Fourth- predict a slight Bush win.

Your analysis of the debates so far seems exactly correct, and your prognosication of the final debates is probably correct.

The big issue is what George Bush shows up for the final debate?

The embarrasment of the first debate, or the normal George Bush?

BTW, Kerry is overdue for another stupid action.  Perhaps he'll make it at the final debate.

[elcorazon]

1st Debate:  big Kerry win
2nd debate: Solid Cheney win (less important, however)
3rd Debate:  draw - neither side added to support
4th Debate:  ? I'm going to guess that it'll be similar to the 3rd, with fairly minor change, but it could go either way.  We'll know in a few hours.

[Blue Rectangle]

There is a perfect football analogy here: in game between two strong teams, it comes down to turnovers.  I predict a very nasty debate in which the candidate who doesn't make a blunder will win.  Bush, even at his angriest in the second debate, stayed coherent and on-message.  I think an angry Kerry is actually more likely to make a big mistake.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Your football analogy is probably pretty correct.

However, team Kerry (even though they won't admit it) realizes they are trailing and with time running out realizes if they don't score on this possession, its probably all over.

Desperation tends to cause mistakes.

[lidaker]

First debate- Definite Kerry win.
Second- Definite Cheney win, impact slight because it's Veeps.
Third- Slight Bush win.
Fourth- predict a slight Bush win.

Your analysis of the debates so far seems exactly correct, and your prognosication of the final debates is probably correct.

The big issue is what George Bush shows up for the final debate?

The embarrasment of the first debate, or the normal George Bush?

BTW, Kerry is overdue for another stupid action.  Perhaps he'll make it at the final debate.

I would argue that Bush's problem is that the Bush who showed up for the first debate is the normal Bush. In the second debate, he benefited from the format and the expectations, this time, it will be more like the first debate.

[CARLHAYDEN]

If you look back over more than a decade, you will see that Bush's performance in the first debate this year was the worst (by far) of any in that period.

One of the problems liberals have is that they constantly denigrate Bush, and then get suprised when he defeats them.

[lidaker]

If you look back over more than a decade, you will see that Bush's performance in the first debate this year was the worst (by far) of any in that period.

One of the problems liberals have is that they constantly denigrate Bush, and then get suprised when he defeats them.

I'm aware Bush is a good debater. But he didn't defeat Kerry last time, even though he was at his best. The polls showed a tie to a slight Kerry win.

Kerry at his best + Bush slightly unfocused = Kerry wins big
Kerry slightly unfocused + Bush at his best = Tie to slight Kerry win

That's comforting

[Blue Rectangle]

One thing is for sure: no matter how good Bush does or how badly Kerry does, most all online polls will show a huge victory for Kerry.  And once again I got an email from the DNC pushing me to stuff online ballot boxes with votes for Kerry.

[Alcon]

Oops, misinterpreted the question and voted tie.

1st Debate: Kerry blowout
Veep Debate: Fairly big Cheney win
2nd Debate: Very slight Bush win

My prediction for 3rd debate? Slight-moderate Kerry.