KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

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KS 2020 Senate Race

Republican
- Roger Marshall, Big First Congressman

Declared Democrats
- Barbara Bollier, State Senator (Former Republican)


Original Post
Might as well get started on 2020...

Roberts has not ruled out running for reelection in 2020.

https://www.agweb.com/article/kansas-sen-pat-roberts-isnt-ruling-out-re-election-run/

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I would bet against him running at this point. Top contenders if he doesn't run: Congressman Roger Marshall and outgoing Governor Jeff Colyer. Kevin Yoder was also a possible candidate, but unsure of his strengths after losing reelection this year. I suspect Roberts would receive a strong conservative challenger if he runs again.

On the Democratic side, failed 3rd district candidate Brent Welder has signaled he will run. James Thompson wouldn't surprise me either.

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A couple points based on earlier posts:

I think it is highly unlikely Kobach will run after his terrible performance. He didn't even lose because of his controversial statements/positions. He primarily lost because he was just outworked by Kelly, her ground game and fundraising were far superior. Kobach is far more likely to take a position in the Trump administration, probably something that doesn't require Senate confirmation.

I always like to defer to VPH on the Democratic side, but I have reservations that Svaty will be able to win the nomination. The KDP is pretty liberal, and while they would have rallied around him for Governor, I just can't see a pro-life Democrat winning a Senate seat after Kavanaugh/Gorsuch and with more judicial appointments looming. I think Welder or Thompson would beat him head-to-head, which is sad because Svaty is far better in my eyes.

Just some food for thought: Kansas won the congressional races 54-44 in 2018 here, it probably would have been higher but we had a flawed candidate in the 2nd. Despite Democratic strength in eastern Kansas, they still have major weaknesses elsewhere that will complicate a statewide run.

Kelly won (in addition to outworking Kobach) because of the mistakes of Brownback and the Republican legislature. In 2020 we will be "Beyond Brownback" so the Democrats will only be able to run against Trump - probably not a successful strategy since Trump will carry the state with double-digits.

At this point I'd rate the race as Likely R but closer to Safe R. Like almost every other race, still early to confidently predict.

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Pat Roberts is taking the Holiday to talk with friends and family about whether to run for another term, so I'd expect a decision in January/February.

A nice piece on Roberts:
https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/congress/article223414635.html

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I expect Dems to win KS, NC, AZ and CO. KS with Kelly is different now.

Not really. Johnson County is trending hard against Republicans/Trump, but in turn, rural areas are turning hard against Democrats. Remains to be seen if these trends will be long-term or just an effect to Trump.

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Even if Kobach runs, I doubt he would win the nomination if there is a half-decent Republican alternative. He only barely scraped past Colyer last year in the gubernatorial primary and now has a pretty embarrassing defeat looming over his head; I don't think that a plurality of KS Republicans want to give him another shot at throwing away a very winnable race, considering a majority didn't even favor him in the primary last year.

I agree with you, I can't see Kobach winning unless it is a very divided field (which is plausible). If he does win the primary, though, I think he'd be favored in the general unless 2020 gets very very bad for Republican.

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I can say with 99% certainty (because there's always a small chance) that Brownback will not be running for this seat. I'd also be surprised if Kobach runs, but who knows, he can be a moron.

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Roberts is holding a press conference in Kansas at 11:15. Expected to be decision on 2020 race.

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BREAKING

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article223905880.html

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Schlapp or Kobach would make the race Likely R.

Sebelius is too moderate for KS Dems

Carl Brewer, or Paul Davis?

Laura Kelly is basically a clone of Kathleen Sebelius (with a very pro-gun history) and swept the primary. If Sebelius runs, she would easily clear the field and be the Democratic nominee. She is still the most powerful Democrat in Kansas.

I can't see Carl Brewer mounting a successful statewide campaign, maybe if 2020 becomes a great year for Democrat he could try for the 4th. Davis may try again, but if he can't win the 2nd against a weak opponent, I doubt he'll be able to win statewide.

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Schlapp or Kobach would make the race Likely R.

Sebelius is too moderate for KS Dems

Carl Brewer, or Paul Davis?

Laura Kelly is basically a clone of Kathleen Sebelius (with a very pro-gun history) and swept the primary. If Sebelius runs, she would easily clear the field and be the Democratic nominee. She is still the most powerful Democrat in Kansas.

I can't see Carl Brewer mounting a successful statewide campaign, maybe if 2020 becomes a great year for Democrat he could try for the 4th. Davis may try again, but if he can't win the 2nd against a weak opponent, I doubt he'll be able to win statewide.

Does Sebelius even live in the state anymore? Also I would think her baggage as HHS head could be used in ads against her

Topeka. And you're right, her time in HHS will hurt her in the general election, not so sure on the primary.

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LaTurner is a very hard worker - he is currently 30, so if elected, he would leaps and bounds be the youngest senator in America and would probably hold that title for quite a while. With his entrance, I doubt that either D. Schmidt or Colyer runs.

LaTurner as GOP nominee? Safe R.

[tmthforu94]

https://twitter.com/jonshorman/status/1083113397309399041

You keep beating me to the punch!

Not sure if she'll be able to win the statewide primary, but shouldn't have a problem in the general election. Kobach is the only formidable candidate who would put the seat at risk.

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Derek Schmidt, State AG, is also considering a run. He would be the more moderate choice - I would say he would be the preference of most on the forum. Great guy, FF.

https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/congress/article224686705.html

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A few updates based on some reliable contacts I have involved with the planning behind this race:

-The Laura Kelly/Kathleen Sebelius machine has settled on a candidate and Emily's List plans to support the candidate as well. Nobody will share a name but it is a young woman with no history of running for office but very strong ties to the state.

-Nobody actually expects Pompeo to run. He apparently has a lot of the same issues as Roberts - doesn't live there and might not even be registered to vote in the state anymore.

-Dems are preparing to run against Marshall, but Colyer and Kobach are both considered likely candidates. Dem outside groups are likely willing to spend to help Kobach get through the primary.

All of this seems accurate. My bet is Katrina Lewison as the Democratic nominee.

[tmthforu94]

A few updates based on some reliable contacts I have involved with the planning behind this race:

-The Laura Kelly/Kathleen Sebelius machine has settled on a candidate and Emily's List plans to support the candidate as well. Nobody will share a name but it is a young woman with no history of running for office but very strong ties to the state.

-Nobody actually expects Pompeo to run. He apparently has a lot of the same issues as Roberts - doesn't live there and might not even be registered to vote in the state anymore.

-Dems are preparing to run against Marshall, but Colyer and Kobach are both considered likely candidates. Dem outside groups are likely willing to spend to help Kobach get through the primary.

All of this seems accurate. My bet is Katrina Lewison as the Democratic nominee.

It's not Lewison (I asked) - the candidate has never run for office before.

Interesting...you have peaked my curiosity!! I'll get nosy and see if I hear anything.

[tmthforu94]

A few updates based on some reliable contacts I have involved with the planning behind this race:

-The Laura Kelly/Kathleen Sebelius machine has settled on a candidate and Emily's List plans to support the candidate as well. Nobody will share a name but it is a young woman with no history of running for office but very strong ties to the state.

Danni Boatwright, former Miss Kansas, winner of Survivor Guatemala, Kansas City radio host, businesswoman.

semi-serious

Interesting suggestion. She'd probably win my vote, provided she is able to run a serious campaign and show knowledge on the issues. I've always been a big fan of her!!

[tmthforu94]

Dems should just give up...Dems havent won a senate seat here since 1932. its as foolish as sanders trying to win OK and WV. We must never forget those inspirational words that Obama told us in 2004 about there being no red or blue states but purple states.

I agree if someone like Marshall or LaTurner is the nominee - Democrats would be wasting resources by focusing on this race. I think there would be an outside shot of Kobach losing in a general election, though.

I still think Kobach ultimately doesn't run - there is a lot of folks in the KSGOP pushing him not to. If he runs, it will prove that he is the most selfish person in the state of Kansas.

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If Kobach wins the nomination (very big if), Grissom should approach this the way Kelly did and prioritize getting endorsements from former GOP governors.

Not a big if, if Trump endorses him.

Kobach barely won the primary in 2018 with a Trump endorsement. Surely there will be at least a handful of GOP voters who decide he's unelectable and don't vote for him.

You're right, but it won't be a head-to-head race in 2020. There will likely be several top candidates who can split the "sane" vote.

Lean Kobach for the primary right now, depends on how it shakes up.

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Oops!

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article232398882.html

Kris Kobach appears to be running for U.S. Senate and to have launched his campaign by misspelling his own name.

A campaign committee named Kobach for Senate filed with the Federal Election Commission Monday morning, hours before Kobach was scheduled to give a speech in Leavenworth, where he is expected to kick off his campaign.

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Brent Welder posted a poll on Facebook asking whether Democrats want a "progressive" or a "corporate centrist". Sounds to me like he wants to run. I like Brent on a personal level; he and his wife are wonderful people but he is absolutely not my preferred candidate for US Senate. Run for State House or State Senate maybe...

He is getting some backlash for that poll, well-deserved. As a Republican I would LOVE to see him as the Democratic nominee. As a Kansan, I hope Democrats find someone better to put up. I like Nancy Boyda, I wouldn't be terribly upset if she won.

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Grissom is a non-factor. Time for Plan B if you’re Kansas Dems. 

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article234072672.html

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Grissom is a non-factor. Time for Plan B if you’re Kansas Dems. 

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article234072672.html

"Grissom, a Democrat, correctly says he left the U.S. attorney job before the cover-up began, and was not a part of the contempt finding by Judge Robinson. He isn’t mentioned in her ruling."

Even the KC Star, a very left-leaning paper, has denounced his candidacy and said it is DOA. He is going to continue to get raked over the coals for this and it has cast a dark cloud over his campaign in a race where Democrats literally have no margin for error. There were obviously serious issues occurring while he was attorney, who knows if any convictions were compromised because of this, though I'm sure we will learn much more in the coming months.

As the initial article states, Democrats can continue sticking their head in the sand on this, but the sooner they move on and try to find a better candidate, the better chance they have of winning the seat next year (in the event Kobach is the nominee). Kobach would beat Grissom.

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Has Stephanie Clayton showed any interest/been recruited? She is the other State Rep from Johnson County who changed her party affiliation after the 2018 election. A few colleagues with deeper Kansas experience have mentioned Monica Murnan, Cindy Holscher, and Eileen Horn as some of their favorites.

Just from following her over the years, I don't think Clayton would do well in a statewide race. Holscher is already running for a seat in the Kansas Senate. Barbara Bollier is probably the more realistic option of the recent party flippers and she even met with Schumer recently, so might be open to it.

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The 1st is the most GOP voter rich district, so Marshall should have a good shot. I'm curious to see polling on this, I'd guess Kobach would lead based on name recognition with Marshall close behind and Wagle in a distant third.

The 2nd could shape up to a battle, but my guess is Watkins doesn't run for reelection because he knows there is dirt on him. Good news for the GOP, the race is Likely R with LaTurner as the nominee and he already has a name recognition and fundraising advantage. I suspect he easily wins that primary.

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https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/460374-rep-roger-marshall-launches-kansas-senate-bid?amp