KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[DINGO Joe]

Someone ran the stats on Twitter, and for all the doubters out there even if Kobach performed as badly in 2020 as he did in 2018 in the KC/urban eastern KS counties he would still win if he performed at generic R rural numbers, which oc he will with Trump on the ballot and in a federal race (he'll also likely improve compared to his 2018 performance in KC with higher GOP turnout and a federal race where people vote more partisanly). Safe R at this point in time tbh, Kobach +6 or something.

Yeah, I'd have to see the math on that theory to believe it.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Someone ran the stats on Twitter, and for all the doubters out there even if Kobach performed as badly in 2020 as he did in 2018 in the KC/urban eastern KS counties he would still win if he performed at generic R rural numbers, which oc he will with Trump on the ballot and in a federal race (he'll also likely improve compared to his 2018 performance in KC with higher GOP turnout and a federal race where people vote more partisanly). Safe R at this point in time tbh, Kobach +6 or something.

There is no reason to think Kobach would retain all of Trump’s support in rural areas

[MarkD]

Has anybody seen any polling done of the candidates in the GOP primary? I can find nothing about it above in the polling section or in Wikipedia. I wonder if Kobach is currently ahead or not.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We havent got much polling from any Senate race except from AZ

[tmthforu94]

New poll has Marshall (slightly) ahead. Lots of undecideds!

Marshall - 29%
Kobach - 28%
Wagle - 6%

https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/congress/article239488068.html

[Frenchrepublican]

New poll has Marshall (slightly) ahead. Lots of undecideds!

Marshall - 29%
Kobach - 28%
Wagle - 6%

https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/congress/article239488068.html

Yeah, I doubt that Kobach will win more than 35% of the primary vote. The big question is how will the electorate will be spread, in a Marshall vs Kobach duel Marshall will win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barb Bollier can beat Marshall as well, but it will be a tossup than LD. DEMS are on the right path to Sen majority AZ, CO, KS, ME, NC

[SnowLabrador]

I've been saying, Kobach isn't guaranteed the nomination. In fact, I think Marshall is going to be the nominee. The GOP isn't stupid enough to let Kobach win the primary again.

[It's not just that you are a crook senator]

Boiller needs to pull a Mccaskill and fund kobach

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

The title gets changed to Marshall leads slightly... because he leads by *1 point* in *1 poll* while still trailing substantially in the average...

[Pollster]

Marshall statistically tied with Kobach in what is essentially an internal from a PAC supporting him that did not test the entire field, and at essentially the same standing as he was in the last poll we saw. Not particularly encouraging.

Good for the average, but will need to see other independent numbers.

[tmthforu94]

The title gets changed to Marshall leads slightly... because he leads by *1 point* in *1 poll* while still trailing substantially in the average...

Quit trying to make something out of nothing. It is the only recent polling we have, the only other was an internal KS GOP poll where we didn't get any info on and was before the Pompeo decision. It would have been "Kobach leads slightly" if he had been up a point. No bias here, I'll probably vote for Marshall but I'm by no means a big fan of his. Considering the last poll had Kobach up 2-1 on Marshall, I think it is a significant storyline that there is now a poll that shows it this close, hence the title change.

[Pollster]

Looks like Wagle is the first to go up on TV.

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1221827915094118401?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1226987628676804609

8 point drop between a normal R lead and Kobach.

[SnowLabrador]

I still think that even if Kobach is the R nominee, partisanship will kick in and they'll elect him. Remember that Phil Bredesen was leading Marsha Blackburn in many polls around this time in the 2018 cycle.

[tmthforu94]

For more context, here is the full poll:
http://dfmresearch.com/uploads/2020_Kansas_Rail_Survey__Amtrak_Topline.pdf

Poll definitely has a D-tilt but not too off. What is most significant to me is the fact that "Generic Republican" is running even with Trump's numbers, suggesting there aren't too many willing to do split ticket unless it is Kobach, which Bollier will need. I wish they had asked a primary question as well as polling Marshall-Bollier and the party affiliation composition.

My guess is the race is still where most pundits predict - Kobach leads by low single-digits, Marshall leads by high single-digits.

[RogueBeaver]

Plumbing executive Bob Hamilton joins the GOP primary.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kelly has done well in coronavirus and will help Barb Bollier

[Pollster]

Plumbing executive Bob Hamilton joins the GOP primary.

Hamilton has hired Axiom Strategies - that's political knife-fighter Jeff Roe.

Roe is a genius, and this is his backyard. If Hamilton is a competent candidate he could be a threat.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems are gonna win this race

[Lognog]

Dems are gonna win this race

yeah democrats are a real slam dunk in a state that hasn't elected a democrat to the senate in a century

[SnowLabrador]

Kobach isn't going to be the nominee. Roger Marshall is raising a lot more money and will most likely get Trump's endorsement.

[brucejoel99]

Kobach isn't going to be the nominee. Roger Marshall is raising a lot more money and will most likely get Trump's endorsement.

Bummer.

[Lognog]

Kobach isn't going to be the nominee. Roger Marshall is raising a lot more money and will most likely get Trump's endorsement.

Bummer.

I get that the margin would be closer with Kobach but I don't want that idiot anywhere near the senate

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Kobach isn't going to be the nominee. Roger Marshall is raising a lot more money and will most likely get Trump's endorsement.

Bummer.

I get that the margin would be closer with Kobach but I don't want that idiot anywhere near the senate