who do you THINK will win the Republican nomination?

[pragmatic liberal]

My guess is the map with Romney winning the nod but we still get the economic crash. Obama does worse in the west but is able to grab Missouri.

Obama won Nevada by 12 points. He won New Mexico by 15 points. There's no way in hell Romney would have carried those states given that kind of Democratic lean this cycle.

And Romney's opportunistic immigrant-demagoguery would not have improved on McCain's shockingly dismal performance among Hispanics in those states. There aren't enough "energized" Mormons to overcome those kinds of pro-Dem immigrant margins.

[pragmatic liberal]

I actually wonder whether Romney would have done a couple points better than McCain in the popular vote but actually lost slightly bigger in the Electoral Vote.

Romney may have done better in the industrial Midwest, esp. Michigan, and in parts of the Northeast. He would not have picked Sarah Palin, either. And the economic crisis would probably have given him a decent issue to export.

Yes, Romney's early numbers were always terrible, but most of those voters would have come and I think it's fairly likely the final margin would probably have been between 5-10 points, not too far off from McCain.

Provided turnout in the South didn't dip too much, Romney may well have come slightly closer to Obama in the popular vote, but his gains may have come in already-blue states or states that would have gone to Obama anyway. In contrast, he might well have done sufficiently worse in states like Missouri and Georgia, with large evangelical contingents, that he might have lost them. He may have lost Arizona, too, which Obama almost certainly would have contested had it not been McCain's home state.

Of course, this is dependent upon Romney running a decent campaign, and his primary campaign doesn't inspire much confidence he would have.