Is a Democrat more likely to win Iowa or Florida

[MT Treasurer]

lmao

[MT Treasurer]

Few things are more dishonest and pathetic than cherry-picking election results to promote your own little ridiculous narrative (apparently "House popular vote" and """elasticity""" are the only useful indicators in IA, while in FL it’s the 2018 SEN/GOV results, in GA it’s the fact that Democrats didn’t win a single statewide office in 2018, in NV it’s "calculated" 2016->2018 "trends", etc.).

Trump barely won FL by supercharging rural/exurban turnout and maxing out the (declining) White vote to a level not seen in three decades. If he’s hemorrhaging enough White/rural support (or voter turnout among those groups) to lose a Republican-trending 90% white state he won by 9% in 2016, there’s no way in hell he’s winning a 60% white state he only won by 1% in 2016 after going through hell and high water (and no, he’s not matching Scott's or DeSantis' numbers in Miami-Dade County).

Using Occam's Razor isn’t always a bad approach, try it out.

[MT Treasurer]

Clearly ultra-elastic Iowa, in which Republican wins in 2014, 2016, and 2018 were all just flukes, because it's filled to the brim with WWC #Populists who will sprint to the polls to vote for their hero, Scranton Joe (though neoliberal elitist socialist Warren would lose it by 15%+.) Florida, on the other hand, is ultra-inelastic (unless a communist/socialist like Sanders or Warren is the nominee, in which case it'll magically become elastic and vote Republican by at least 8%), and the Democrats have a hard ceiling of a 0.1284852% loss, so even a ridiculously strong and electable candidate like Biden would still just barely lose Florida.

In all seriousness, regardless of the Democratic candidate, FL is Tilt R at most for Trump (even against Sanders or Warren), while IA is Likely R.

Republicans did not win Iowa in 2018 , the Dems won the House popular vote in Iowa by 4 points while the Dems lost the house popular vote by 5 points .


If you wanna judge state wide races well Democrats won 3/6 in Iowa whole they won 1 in Florida

And how does Steve King dragging down the Republican House vote in IA while Democrats underperformed in FL-26 and FL-27 prove that Trump is going to crater in IA while holding all of his support or even gaining some in FL? I don't remember Trump doing better in NV than NC, even though Republicans did quite a bit better in the House vote in NV in 2014 than in NC.

Florida is the Republicans Nevada while Iowa is their New Hampshire in the sense that New Hampshire like Iowa are prone to huge swings while Florida like Nevada has a very very stubborn lean .

This is quite possibly the worst counterargument I’ve ever read on this forum. You didn’t address a single point he made, even though all of them are valid.

[MT Treasurer]

Iowa is super super Elastic and has been prone to huge swings. Dems won there just two years ago in 2018 while they lost in FL (the House popular vote difference between the two states was 9 point difference in favor of FL GOP) and if you wanna look at statewide races won 3/6 statewide races while in FL Dems lost all but one including a Federal Statewide race, Trump's approvals are higher in FL than IA.

Okay, so OH is clearly more likely to flip than FL because Democrats won a federal race there and lost the "House Popular Vote" by less than in FL.

I can do ridiculous cherry-picking too. Super super easy, actually.

[MT Treasurer]

Difference is Trump's approvals I believe are higher in Ohio

In some polls, but not in others.

and the state has proven not to be that elastic either.

OH SEN 2012: D+6
OH GOV 2014: R+34
OH SEN 2016: R+21 (See, OH actually trended Democratic between 2014 and 2016)
OH SEN 2018: D+7 (Another Democratic TREND)

If that’s not hella elastic, then what is? It’s so elastic it’s causing dizziness.

Also if Kasich ran for the Senate in 2018 he would defeat Sherrod Brown.

Ahhhhh... but then why doesn’t Rick Scott being the popular governor with a decent amount of crossover appeal matter? No, it’s just the fact that Democrats lost the Senate race in FL that proves the state is Lean R in 2020, right?

[MT Treasurer]

I mean inelastic for Preisdential races, anyway lets say we agree to disagee.

I also fail to see how it’s less "elastic" than IA in presidential races. And yeah, let’s agree to disagree.

Just a side note : Remember if IA votes to Left of OH you have to put in your sig till inaugration day that Polarization and Elasticity are real and your take was completely wrong on IA. Of course I would do the same in the opposite direction if IA votes to the right of OH but that just wont happen.

Nope, that wasn’t the deal. TX, not OH.

How about this?

If IA votes to the right of TX/TX is more Democratic than IA, you’ll change your username to Omar/AOC 2024 (with a D avatar obviously), your signature will say "Elasticity and polarization aren’t real," and you won’t talk about IA/OH/TX/(in)elasticity/polarization again. You also won’t mention that said profile is the consequence of a lost bet. Let’s say for four months?

If IA votes to the left of TX/TX is more Republican than IA, I’ll change my username to [whatever you suggest], my signature will say [suggest something here], and I won’t talk about IA/OH/TX/(in)elasticity/polarization again after the election. I also won’t mention that said profile is the consequence of a lost bet. Again, all of this for four months.

[MT Treasurer]

^Yeah, true, but it’s about TX, not OH.