Is a Democrat more likely to win Iowa or Florida

[dw93]

I can see Trump's margin go down in IA but go up in FL.  The influx of retirees to SW Florida, suburban Tampa Bay, and the Villages is enormous--a large conservative population that votes.

This.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

How a place voted in 2004 is basically irrelevant these days.

Wait you’re telling me Randolph County, AR isn’t a tilt D Tossup and Rockdale County, GA isn’t Safe R still?

[Pericles]

I can see Trump's margin go down in IA but go up in FL.  The influx of retirees to SW Florida, suburban Tampa Bay, and the Villages is enormous--a large conservative population that votes.

True, but it's still more plausible that the Democrat makes up the 1.2% margin in Florida than the 9.4% margin in Iowa.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I can see Trump's margin go down in IA but go up in FL.  The influx of retirees to SW Florida, suburban Tampa Bay, and the Villages is enormous--a large conservative population that votes.

True, but it's still more plausible that the Democrat makes up the 1.2% margin in Florida than the 9.4% margin in Iowa.

Yeah I seriously don’t even understand how this is a question. If Trump is losing Iowa, the Democratic nominee is probably flirting extremely close with 400 Electoral Votes

[OSR stands with Israel]

I can see Trump's margin go down in IA but go up in FL.  The influx of retirees to SW Florida, suburban Tampa Bay, and the Villages is enormous--a large conservative population that votes.

True, but it's still more plausible that the Democrat makes up the 1.2% margin in Florida than the 9.4% margin in Iowa.

Yeah I seriously don’t even understand how this is a question. If Trump is losing Iowa, the Democratic nominee is probably flirting extremely close with 400 Electoral Votes

Iowa is super super Elastic and has been prone to huge swings. Dems won there just two years ago in 2018 while they lost in FL (the House popular vote difference between the two states was 9 point difference in favor of FL GOP) and if you wanna look at statewide races won 3/6 statewide races while in FL Dems lost all but one including a Federal Statewide race, Trump's approvals are higher in FL than IA.


Dems are not extremely close to 400 EV cause they aint winning Ohio or Texas without Iowa , just not happening. If you wanna look at trends well just look at Iowa in 2018 . Out of the Trump states this is the ranking Dems have of winning

1. Michigan
2. Pennsylvania
T3. Wisconsin
T3. Arizona
5. North Carolina
6. Georgia
7. Iowa
8. Florida
9. Texas
10. Ohio

[Non Swing Voter]

There is this premise that Florida is trending R because of all the boomers moving down to Florida from the midwest.  Wouldn't that theory also mean less boomers in midwest making midwest perhaps less R?

Anyways, I agree with the premise in some ways but I don't see why Biden would win Iowa and just barely lose Florida.  There are swingy voters in Florida too and Biden is an extremely good fit for the state (he does well with moderate and some blue collar whites while probably getting better minority support than Hillary got based on his connection to Obama).  I think Biden would win Florida against Trump by 2 or 3 points while Iowa would be about even, could go either way.

[Epaminondas]

To those who loudly claim that answering Iowa is an absurd answer which "flies in the face of maths and logic", do you realise how wrong your reasoning was for 2016?

After all, surely Florida (D+1) was going to be much easier for Trump to win than Iowa (D+6)! Right?

Elasticity exists, and those two states might represent both extremes of it.

[MT Treasurer]

Iowa is super super Elastic and has been prone to huge swings. Dems won there just two years ago in 2018 while they lost in FL (the House popular vote difference between the two states was 9 point difference in favor of FL GOP) and if you wanna look at statewide races won 3/6 statewide races while in FL Dems lost all but one including a Federal Statewide race, Trump's approvals are higher in FL than IA.

Okay, so OH is clearly more likely to flip than FL because Democrats won a federal race there and lost the "House Popular Vote" by less than in FL.

I can do ridiculous cherry-picking too. Super super easy, actually.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Iowa is super super Elastic and has been prone to huge swings. Dems won there just two years ago in 2018 while they lost in FL (the House popular vote difference between the two states was 9 point difference in favor of FL GOP) and if you wanna look at statewide races won 3/6 statewide races while in FL Dems lost all but one including a Federal Statewide race, Trump's approvals are higher in FL than IA.

Okay, so OH is clearly more likely to flip than FL because Democrats won a federal race there and lost the "House Popular Vote" by less than in FL.

I can do ridiculous cherry-picking too. Super super easy, actually.

Difference is Trump's approvals I believe are higher in Ohio and the state has proven not to be that elastic either.  Also if Kasich ran for the Senate in 2018 he would defeat Sherrod Brown.

[Adam Griffin]

There is this premise that Florida is trending R because of all the boomers moving down to Florida from the midwest.  Wouldn't that theory also mean less boomers in midwest making midwest perhaps less R?

In an absolute sense, sure. However, if the influx from an entire region to a state like FL shifts the margin by a point in favor of Trump, then the shift to Democrats across each of those individual states is going to be practically nothing.

[MT Treasurer]

Difference is Trump's approvals I believe are higher in Ohio

In some polls, but not in others.

and the state has proven not to be that elastic either.

OH SEN 2012: D+6
OH GOV 2014: R+34
OH SEN 2016: R+21 (See, OH actually trended Democratic between 2014 and 2016)
OH SEN 2018: D+7 (Another Democratic TREND)

If that’s not hella elastic, then what is? It’s so elastic it’s causing dizziness.

Also if Kasich ran for the Senate in 2018 he would defeat Sherrod Brown.

Ahhhhh... but then why doesn’t Rick Scott being the popular governor with a decent amount of crossover appeal matter? No, it’s just the fact that Democrats lost the Senate race in FL that proves the state is Lean R in 2020, right?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Difference is Trump's approvals I believe are higher in Ohio

In some polls, but not in others.

and the state has proven not to be that elastic either.

OH SEN 2012: D+6
OH GOV 2014: R+34
OH SEN 2016: R+21 (See, OH actually trended Democratic between 2014 and 2016)
OH SEN 2018: D+7 (Another Democratic TREND)

If that’s not hella elastic, then what is? It’s so elastic it’s causing dizziness.

Also if Kasich ran for the Senate in 2018 he would defeat Sherrod Brown.

Ahhhhh... but then why doesn’t Rick Scott being the popular governor with a decent amount of crossover appeal matter? No, it’s just the fact that Democrats lost the Senate race in FL that proves the state is Lean R in 2020, right?

I mean inelastic for Preisdential races, anyway lets say we agree to disagee.


Just a side note : Remember if IA votes to Left of OH you have to put in your sig till inaugration day that Polarization and Elasticity are real and your take was completely wrong on IA. Of course I would do the same in the opposite direction if IA votes to the right of OH but that just wont happen.

[MT Treasurer]

I mean inelastic for Preisdential races, anyway lets say we agree to disagee.

I also fail to see how it’s less "elastic" than IA in presidential races. And yeah, let’s agree to disagree.

Just a side note : Remember if IA votes to Left of OH you have to put in your sig till inaugration day that Polarization and Elasticity are real and your take was completely wrong on IA. Of course I would do the same in the opposite direction if IA votes to the right of OH but that just wont happen.

Nope, that wasn’t the deal. TX, not OH.

How about this?

If IA votes to the right of TX/TX is more Democratic than IA, you’ll change your username to Omar/AOC 2024 (with a D avatar obviously), your signature will say "Elasticity and polarization aren’t real," and you won’t talk about IA/OH/TX/(in)elasticity/polarization again. You also won’t mention that said profile is the consequence of a lost bet. Let’s say for four months?

If IA votes to the left of TX/TX is more Republican than IA, I’ll change my username to [whatever you suggest], my signature will say [suggest something here], and I won’t talk about IA/OH/TX/(in)elasticity/polarization again after the election. I also won’t mention that said profile is the consequence of a lost bet. Again, all of this for four months.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I mean inelastic for Preisdential races, anyway lets say we agree to disagee.

I also fail to see how it’s less "elastic" than IA in presidential races. And yeah, let’s agree to disagree.

Just a side note : Remember if IA votes to Left of OH you have to put in your sig till inaugration day that Polarization and Elasticity are real and your take was completely wrong on IA. Of course I would do the same in the opposite direction if IA votes to the right of OH but that just wont happen.

Nope, that wasn’t the deal. TX, not OH.

How about this?

If IA votes to the right of TX/TX is more Democratic than IA, you’ll change your username to Omar/AOC 2024 (with a D avatar obviously), your signature will say "Elasticity and polarization aren’t real," and you won’t talk about IA/OH/TX/(in)elasticity/polarization again. You also won’t mention that said profile is the consequence of a lost bet. Let’s say for four months?

If IA votes to the left of TX/TX is more Republican than IA, I’ll change my username to [whatever you suggest], my signature will say [suggest something here], and I won’t talk about IA/OH/TX/(in)elasticity/polarization again after the election. I also won’t mention that said profile is the consequence of a lost bet. Again, all of this for four months.

Well Ill win that as well but the deal was this, so I dont have to change my username .

Cant do the user name(cant even pretend to like Omar and probably not AOC) but I will create a thread admitting I was wrong and put it in my Sig that says Polarization and Elasticity Arent Real and keep it for a year instead and wont mention it any thread and wont mention it was for a lost bet.

Same for you except you have to say IA and NH are elastic states and Texas is a Republican one and PVI does impact elections

Wow, cold feet yet? Doesn’t sound like someone with a lot of confidence in his prediction. If AOC and Omar scare you that much, I’ll accept your proposal, although you also won’t be talking about Iowa/Ohio/Texas in addition to polarization/elasticity for a year, regardless of context. Same for me if I lose the bet.

Deal?

[MT Treasurer]

^Yeah, true, but it’s about TX, not OH.

[OSR stands with Israel]

^Yeah, true, but it’s about TX, not OH.

Alright

[jamestroll]

Florida.

Though I believe Trump will win Florida by around 1.4% and will win Iowa by around 9% again. It was a polarized wave last year so we can use the midterm results as a heavier indication for next year than we usually can. But the midterm results are not ironclad.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Both are trending right, Dems blew it in 2018 by nominating Gillium instead of Graham and Ernst wont lose to Franken or Greenfield in a neutral election cycle

[Queen Isuelt]

Likely Iowa. 32 counties voted for Obama/trump and I think Florida is demographically very tough for a Bernie sanders or joe Biden to win.

Florida is like Pennsylvania to Republicans

I don’t think any democrat can win Florida but Klobuchar, Sanders can. Sanders has a better chance of winning Iowa than Nevada.

[It’s so Joever]

Florida and it’s not even close. Dems have ample room to grow in the Orlando suburbs and Jacksonville area which should neutralize the R growth in Tampa exurbs +Volusia area. Iowa only has Des Moines as a counterweight against R rural trends.

[Person Man]

I can imagine on a really good night for Trump that he wins in a small landslide in Florida the way Bush did in 2004 and MAYBE the way Rubio did in 2016 (if Dems are getting totally wiped out) and then maybe that Iowa swings a good bit against him but he still manages to do really well there. If Iowa is voting to the left of Florida, it doesn't really matter. 

Democrats can win Florida but they will have to actually try to win it this time. When the FL GOP runs out of new boomers, I think Florida will start to go back to the trend it had in the 90s. Iowa, I think, will have a lot of older and less educated young people stay put. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Greenfield hasnt gotton any mileage from her campaign against Ernst, as she is a failed candidate against Ernst, thus surrendering the state again to Trump

[slothdem]

I think my favorite part about the "Dems lost the Florida House Popular Vote" discourse is that its only true because Florida does a weird thing where they don't count any votes from uncontested races, which cancelled out a ton of blue votes from uncontested Dem vote sinks in Dade and Broward. Someone applied a uniform swing to the Trump/Clinton results for those districts and added them to the totals and found Democrats winning the state by 1.4%, which seems right for a strong Democratic year.

But by all means folks, please continue to use this absurd point for justifying an absurd position.