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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
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« Reply #350 on: July 30, 2009, 08:29:48 AM »

Yes, Mitterand impressed a lot, so influenced a lot.

Though I tend to think that the management you describe could fit with more or less all presidents, that are some classical political tactics, maybe practiced with more or less intuition and more or less success.

Other than that, yes, Sarkozy is the totally opposite of Mitterand. One was calm, stayed in the background and wanted to give some weight to his words when the other one is excited, wants to be inside the action, wants to do 100 things at the time and think that the words he pronounces are like some acts. One was from the book, the other one is from the TV. I'm curious to see the one who will be from the net.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #351 on: August 04, 2009, 07:10:09 AM »

Villiers has just agreed to join a contact committee between parties of the presidential majority.

After his bad results in European elections, he's forced to rally the big party of the right.
It was the same after 1995 presidential election: he was indebted and then began his dependance on the RPR and on Pasqua especially. Pasqua even tried to swallow all the MPF in the RPF.

Maybe a small secretary of state for the MPF soon... When I say that it's a Mitterrand-like government...
(Bruno Retailleau, deputy of Vendée, was already about to enter the government in January, but Sarkozy stopped him at the last moment.)
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #352 on: August 04, 2009, 09:11:02 AM »

Maybe a small secretary of state for the MPF soon... When I say that it's a Mitterrand-like government...

Horrible... Sad I thought getting rid of Boutin meant finally stopping the social regression...
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« Reply #353 on: August 04, 2009, 09:17:21 AM »

Maybe a small secretary of state for the MPF soon... When I say that it's a Mitterrand-like government...

Horrible... Sad I thought getting rid of Boutin meant finally stopping the social regression...

Who the hell cares? The MPF is irrelevant and always will be. It's not some Villiers hack who will influence government policy in the State Secretariat for Sewer Systems and Dog Catchers.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #354 on: August 04, 2009, 09:32:20 AM »

Maybe a small secretary of state for the MPF soon... When I say that it's a Mitterrand-like government...

Horrible... Sad I thought getting rid of Boutin meant finally stopping the social regression...

Who the hell cares? The MPF is irrelevant and always will be. It's not some Villiers hack who will influence government policy in the State Secretariat for Sewer Systems and Dog Catchers.


I know, but that make me feel very uncomfortable to see these people considered as "normal politicians" and people you can work with, and not as the crazy reactionnaries they are.
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
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« Reply #355 on: August 04, 2009, 09:41:16 AM »

Maybe a small secretary of state for the MPF soon... When I say that it's a Mitterrand-like government...

I would be very surprised it happens. The government is here for the image and De Villiers would be the hell of a wrong image. Plus for being in this government, you have to be liked by Sarkozy and to accept to be more or less a puppet of him, two other conditions that make the entry of De Villiers in the govt very unlikely.

Maybe a small secretary of state for the MPF soon... When I say that it's a Mitterrand-like government...

Horrible... Sad I thought getting rid of Boutin meant finally stopping the social regression...

Who the hell cares? The MPF is irrelevant and always will be. It's not some Villiers hack who will influence government policy in the State Secretariat for Sewer Systems and Dog Catchers.


I know, but that make me feel very uncomfortable to see these people considered as "normal politicians" and people you can work with, and not as the crazy reactionnaries they are.

Boutin is reactionary but not crazy she just tries to apply her Christian views by political means (when the hell Christians will get that Christianity and politics are incompatible?...). You can disagree with her, what I do on such or such topics, you can dislike her behavior, what I do too, you can also think that to apply Christian principles the best and more logical way is out of politics, what I do too. But you can't say she's crazy. For Villiers...hmm...that's like Bush, such guys are funny as long as we don't give them something that has to see with some power...
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #356 on: August 04, 2009, 09:47:19 AM »

I spoke about Villiers then. You're right, Boutin is not crazy, just ridiculously old-fashionned... Cheesy
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« Reply #357 on: August 04, 2009, 10:20:47 AM »

Maybe a small secretary of state for the MPF soon... When I say that it's a Mitterrand-like government...

I would be very surprised it happens. The government is here for the image and De Villiers would be the hell of a wrong image. Plus for being in this government, you have to be liked by Sarkozy and to accept to be more or less a puppet of him, two other conditions that make the entry of De Villiers in the govt very unlikely.

It would also require that Besse and Souchet start voting with the government more often that not. Though knowing those doorknobs, it's likely when their job depends on it.

I spoke about Villiers then. You're right, Boutin is not crazy, just ridiculously old-fashionned... Cheesy

Villiers is a joke. But so what, if he has his convictions and ideals, however retarded they may be? Isn't he in the right to have political ideas of his own, or does everybody need to be ideologically 'sane' and homogeneous according to your book of political thoughts? No.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #358 on: August 04, 2009, 10:31:39 AM »

I respect many political positions and am ready to debate on economic and social issues, until people doesn't start to want us to get back into the Middle Age, hating anyone that refuses the "moral values", destroying individual freedom and starting crusades against the Evil Muslims. Sorry, but I'm not supposed to respect this sort of political views.
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« Reply #359 on: August 04, 2009, 10:33:20 AM »

I respect many political positions and am ready to debate on economic and social issues, until people doesn't start to want us to get back into the Middle Age, hating anyone that refuses the "moral values", destroying individual freedom and starting crusades against the Evil Muslims. Sorry, but I'm not supposed to respect this sort of political views.

I never asked you to agree with them, but atleast to recognize that some people hold these views, however demented they may be. Not everybody can fit into sane political ideologically, so let's not try to make it so.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #360 on: August 04, 2009, 01:17:03 PM »

I respect many political positions and am ready to debate on economic and social issues, until people doesn't start to want us to get back into the Middle Age, hating anyone that refuses the "moral values", destroying individual freedom and starting crusades against the Evil Muslims. Sorry, but I'm not supposed to respect this sort of political views.

I never asked you to agree with them, but atleast to recognize that some people hold these views, however demented they may be. Not everybody can fit into sane political ideologically, so let's not try to make it so.

That's exactly what I said. Some people hold these views. I call them "crazy reactionnaries" because I think that's what they are. I didn't say anything more.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #361 on: August 04, 2009, 02:54:07 PM »
« Edited: August 04, 2009, 04:41:24 PM by big bad fab »

Maybe a small secretary of state for the MPF soon... When I say that it's a Mitterrand-like government...

Horrible... Sad I thought getting rid of Boutin meant finally stopping the social regression...

Who the hell cares? The MPF is irrelevant and always will be. It's not some Villiers hack who will influence government policy in the State Secretariat for Sewer Systems and Dog Catchers.

Hash is right.
My point wasn't to talk about IDEAS, just about political life and TACTICS.
It's funny to see Villiers, after all he said on Sarkozy and his betrayal of the rightist electorate, going to Canossa, only because he is indebted and has had a bad result recently (even in Vendee, BTW...).

And, Benoît, I've just refered to a small post for an MPF man, not for Villiers himself, of course not. Bruno Retailleau is a possible candidate.
Nobody would notice it !

As for Christians in politics, well, christianity isn't exactly only rules on sexuality...
The so-called "solidarité" -everybody has this word on theirs lips nowadays in France- is in fact an old Christian concept.
The same for the rule of law in working areas, for the respect of human, animal and natural life (I'm not talking about abortion), for the idea of respect.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #362 on: August 04, 2009, 03:42:29 PM »

I know Christian ideology also has a "social" aspect. But any solidarity principle is not necessarily a Christian one. Christians generally tend to prefer things like charity instead of institutionnal redistribution. And charity is not social justice.
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
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« Reply #363 on: August 05, 2009, 11:28:28 AM »

And, Benoît, I've just refered to a small post for an MPF man, not for Villiers himself, of course not. Bruno Retailleau is a possible candidate.
Nobody would notice it !

Pardon if I misunderstood, ya, ya, a second knife can be possible.

As for Christians in politics, well, christianity isn't exactly only rules on sexuality...
The so-called "solidarité" -everybody has this word on theirs lips nowadays in France- is in fact an old Christian concept.
The same for the rule of law in working areas, for the respect of human, animal and natural life (I'm not talking about abortion), for the idea of respect.

Well, concerning Christianity in politics. I'm very aware that Christianity is not the caricature that some would like it to be. What I wanted to mean is that, in the teaching of his prophet, Christianity wouldn't be destined to make some politics, that are some teaching to be spread for the sake of the human being. I won't be very original by giving this quote of the Bible: "Give it back to Cesar what belongs to Cesar", which is my translation, I don't know if that's the same in the English Bible.

Islam is very coherent when it makes some politics, Christianity isn't.

Then, of course, the Christian principles can inspire some people who make some politics, their views views, their way to govern, but they should never act in the name of Christianity, they should never justify their act because of Christianity, because here they would break the basic principle that the Christ wanted to stay out of politics. That's all what I meant.



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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #364 on: August 05, 2009, 01:35:35 PM »

Then, of course, the Christian principles can inspire some people who make some politics, their views views, their way to govern, but they should never act in the name of Christianity, they should never justify their act because of Christianity, because here they would break the basic principle that the Christ wanted to stay out of politics. That's all what I meant.

Moreover, the fact you are a Christian and maybe you think that society should respect "moral values", etc... doesn't allow you to impose this view to all the society, because people is not forced to share these views. That's what means "separation of Church and State".
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big bad fab
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« Reply #365 on: August 13, 2009, 05:08:57 AM »

Villiers has just agreed to join a contact committee between parties of the presidential majority.

After his bad results in European elections, he's forced to rally the big party of the right.
It was the same after 1995 presidential election: he was indebted and then began his dependance on the RPR and on Pasqua especially. Pasqua even tried to swallow all the MPF in the RPF.

Maybe a small secretary of state for the MPF soon... When I say that it's a Mitterrand-like government...
(Bruno Retailleau, deputy of Vendée, was already about to enter the government in January, but Sarkozy stopped him at the last moment.)


Now, it's CPNT turn...

Its leader, Frédéric Nihous (a former RPR member), has just said there are talkings with Xavier Bertrand on CPNT joining the contact committee of the presidential majority.

It may be the end of this hunters' story in French elections, as South-West hunters, more on the left, won't follow.

And maybe a sad day for Hash ! Wink
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #366 on: August 13, 2009, 07:11:27 AM »

No comment.
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
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« Reply #367 on: August 13, 2009, 07:41:45 AM »

Villiers has just agreed to join a contact committee between parties of the presidential majority.

After his bad results in European elections, he's forced to rally the big party of the right.
It was the same after 1995 presidential election: he was indebted and then began his dependance on the RPR and on Pasqua especially. Pasqua even tried to swallow all the MPF in the RPF.

Maybe a small secretary of state for the MPF soon... When I say that it's a Mitterrand-like government...
(Bruno Retailleau, deputy of Vendée, was already about to enter the government in January, but Sarkozy stopped him at the last moment.)


Now, it's CPNT turn...

Its leader, Frédéric Nihous (a former RPR member), has just said there are talkings with Xavier Bertrand on CPNT joining the contact committee of the presidential majority.

It may be the end of this hunters' story in French elections, as South-West hunters, more on the left, won't follow.

And maybe a sad day for Hash ! Wink

CPNT...

Or how to give some content, and sometimes some relevant one, to some people who gather themselves before everything because they feel lost, afraid, and don't get a sh**t of what happens in the current world, and thus who are before everything here to give some voice to a kind of knee jerk conservatism from the countrysides... Though, as I said in the beginning, they succeeded to create a beautiful, and sometimes relevant, political display...

Grin
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #368 on: August 13, 2009, 04:20:47 PM »

CPNT? Why?! Sad
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« Reply #369 on: August 13, 2009, 05:32:13 PM »

rofl. Who's next? The PS?
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #370 on: August 13, 2009, 06:50:26 PM »


Those who could come already did.

Only NPA has not ( yet ) one or two places.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #371 on: August 14, 2009, 03:53:05 AM »
« Edited: August 14, 2009, 06:43:01 AM by big bad fab »

- MPF and CPNT join for financial and electoral reasons.

After the European campaign, they are indebted (it was the same for Villiers after his failed presidential bid of 1995).
And with the "new" electoral system for regional elections, implemented for the first time in 2004, they fear to have no (CPNT) or just one or two (MPF) regional counsellors.

- Now, for DLR, it led a small campaign for the European elections. And most of its campaigning consists in media blitz appearances of Dupont-Aignan himself. So, it doesn't cost much !
And being a parliamentarian and a mayor, he has some means to act... maybe on the edge of irregularity, but anyway regularly, as many French politicians have learnt to do.

And now that MPF specificity will fade, DLR may have a small opportunity to grasp Villiers' former media time, as the only "true" opposition from the right.
So, DLR won't join the UMP.

- There is one party that, surprisingly, has no "places" as Antonio says, this is the PRG, neither as a party of course (initial hesitating of Baylet in 2007 is really over: almost all of PRG members are really left people), nor through some figures (although Giacobbi and Schwartzenberg have recently been among the rumored future members of the government).

- And, in a way, some wings inside the UMP are sidelined indise the majority....
See the old or middle-old "chiraquiens" (Raffarin, Perben, Baroin, Jacob,...) and, of course, "villepinistes" (Tron, Mariton,...).

That's a pity in the case of Baroin, but I think Sarkozy wants to let "chiraquiens" fade away... And, tactically, he may be right:
Gaymard is out, after a (silly) scandal of appartment,
Dutreil has left politics after his defeat in Reims,
Robien is out after his defeat in Amiens,
Perben has weakened himself in Lyons,
Raffarin is out-of-date (and there's the easy argument of having Bussereau, the only "raffariniste", inside the govenrment)
Ollier can be kept outside with the easy argument that Alliot-Marie, with whom he lives, is inside,
Baroin is forgotten by French people (all the more now that he doesn't live any longer with Marie Drucker, a good-looking TV anchor and daughter of the big media family of the Druckers... and when a politician isn't "inside" the media business any longer, it's a big impediment !).

Apart from Albanel (already out and not threatening politically),
Sarkozy has only "saved" the former juppéistes: Woerth, Bertrand, Apparu, Jégo (but he's now outside the government...).

Pécresse, Falco, Joyandet were real "chiraquiens", but they have rallied Sarkozy early (even before Xavier Bertrand) and well served during the presidential campaign.
And they are local biggies (Falco and Joyandet) or want to become one (Pécresse: BTW, if she loses in 2010 in Ile-de-France, Sarkozy will drop her without hesitating more than a half second, you'll see...).
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
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« Reply #372 on: August 14, 2009, 07:25:09 AM »
« Edited: August 14, 2009, 07:26:58 AM by B. C. »

- There is one party that, surprisingly, has no "places" as Antonio says, this is the PRG, neither as a party of course (initial hesitating of Baylet in 2007 is really over: almost all of PRG members are really left people), nor through some figures (although Giacobbi and Schwartzenberg have recently been among the rumored future members of the government).

Oh, PRG...

Actually, they are nothing but an old-fashioned thing, a beautiful speech but not slightest energy behind. PRG is Baylet, and Baylet seems to be nothing but the King of Tarn-et-Garonne and of La Dépêche du Midi (a big regional paper of the south-west).


- Now, for DLR, it led a small campaign for the European elections. And most of its campaigning consists in media blitz appearances of Dupont-Aignan himself. So, it doesn't cost much !
And being a parliamentarian and a mayor, he has some means to act... maybe on the edge of irregularity, but anyway regularly, as many French politicians have learnt to do.

And now that MPF specificity will fade, DLR may have a small opportunity to grasp Villiers' former media time, as the only "true" opposition from the right.
So, DLR won't join the UMP.

No, no, Dupont-Aignan is clearly out of date, even fans of De Gaulle, who would vote for him, wouldn't believe in him at all. He seems to be also a kind of small Bayrou, he believes in him, no matter the rest, in worst, more passionate than Bayrou, and oppositely to Bayrou, I think he wouldn't even have like him a small clan of passionate fans around him. Then, he can't work on Villiers' ground, Villiers clearly works on xenophobic feelings and on a strong social conservatism, Dupont-Aignan doesn't.


- And, in a way, some wings inside the UMP are sidelined indise the majority....
See the old or middle-old "chiraquiens" (Raffarin, Perben, Baroin, Jacob,...) and, of course, "villepinistes" (Tron, Mariton,...).

That's a pity in the case of Baroin, but I think Sarkozy wants to let "chiraquiens" fade away... And, tactically, he may be right:
Gaymard is out, after a (silly) scandal of appartment,
Dutreil has left politics after his defeat in Reims,
Robien is out after his defeat in Amiens,
Perben has weakened himself in Lyons,
Raffarin is out-of-date (and there's the easy argument of having Bussereau, the only "raffariniste", inside the govenrment)
Ollier can be kept outside with the easy argument that Alliot-Marie, with whom he lives, is inside,
Baroin is forgotten by French people (all the more now that he doesn't live any longer with Marie Drucker, a good-looking TV anchor and daughter of the big media family of the Druckers... and when a politician isn't "inside" the media business any longer, it's a big impediment !).

Apart from Albanel (already out and not threatening politically),
Sarkozy has only "saved" the former juppéistes: Woerth, Bertrand, Apparu, Jégo (but he's now outside the government...).

Pécresse, Falco, Joyandet were real "chiraquiens", but they have rallied Sarkozy early (even before Xavier Bertrand) and well served during the presidential campaign.
And they are local biggies (Falco and Joyandet) or want to become one (Pécresse: BTW, if she loses in 2010 in Ile-de-France, Sarkozy will drop her without hesitating more than a half second, you'll see...).

You spoke about the real opposition on the right with Dupont-Aignant, according to what I said I disagree with that.

Yes, for me the real opposition on the right can come from...Villepin. For me he is the only one who has the energy and the real will to fight against Sarkozy, and you surely saw that he already did, and strongly for someone from the right. Plus he is the only one who would have the strongest network. Yes, as we can see Sarkozists are not that numerous, most of people are chiraquiens, some like Bertrand or Pécresse really converted, but I think that a big number could change if they felt the wind changing. And Villepin can anyways count on his 3 strong supports that are Tron, Mariton and Goulard, these guys can become very strong I think if they have the opportunity. Mariton is a real sniper, Tron is a bit too much of a fan but he can be useful and Goulard has the image of someone serious and efficient. This is for the close guard, and throughout all chiraquiens that could rally him, I think Villepin could find a strong support with Baroin (IMO, Villepin is the only possibility of future for Baroin), and also with...Raffarin, both have been clearly sidelined by Sarkozy but both are strong, and if Villepin has a dynamics around him he could count on that both I think.

In short, the biggest danger for Sarkozy in the years to come is Villepin, and personally, in a run with even Strauss Kahn I could vote for him in presidentials I think, Strauss Kahn is too much a technician, it is not an "homme d'état" (way to refer to a man who is able to lead a state) IMO.


Those who could come already did.

Only NPA has not ( yet ) one or two places.

Haha. Please, the "yet" has clearly not its place here. For sure. NPA.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #373 on: August 14, 2009, 09:00:50 AM »

- Now, for DLR, it led a small campaign for the European elections. And most of its campaigning consists in media blitz appearances of Dupont-Aignan himself. So, it doesn't cost much !
And being a parliamentarian and a mayor, he has some means to act... maybe on the edge of irregularity, but anyway regularly, as many French politicians have learnt to do.

And now that MPF specificity will fade, DLR may have a small opportunity to grasp Villiers' former media time, as the only "true" opposition from the right.
So, DLR won't join the UMP.

No, no, Dupont-Aignan is clearly out of date, even fans of De Gaulle, who would vote for him, wouldn't believe in him at all. He seems to be also a kind of small Bayrou, he believes in him, no matter the rest, in worst, more passionate than Bayrou, and oppositely to Bayrou, I think he wouldn't even have like him a small clan of passionate fans around him. Then, he can't work on Villiers' ground, Villiers clearly works on xenophobic feelings and on a strong social conservatism, Dupont-Aignan doesn't.

I've just wanted to say that DLR may take 1% more (that is to say about 40% of Villiers' electorate) than its usual 1,5%....
And, be careful, Villiers sometimes speak with xenophobic accents, but its electorate isn't at all the same as the FN one.

That's why the "strong social conservatism" mustn't be mixed with xenophobia and nationalism. Villiers' electorate is strongly conservative and anti-European, but it's an elitist and capitalist one. And it's not the extreme-right.
An interesting thing to point is that the "far right intellectuals" (the first club de l'Horloge, even GRECE on the real extreme-right) haven't been linked to Villiers: they were mostly between the "ultra-libéral" wing of the PR (Guillet, Novelli, Griotteray, etc), the far-right wing of the RPR (Pasqua, some south-easterners) and the MNR. Eventually, many finished in the FN (or nowhere...).
Only one, Henry de Lesquen, because of his social conservatism, is a Villiers one (and managed to take the current club de l'Horloge close to the MPF).

The FN electorate is far more popular, blue-collar, small-business and petit-bourgeois.

So, it was (and is) an illusion for Villiers to think he can steal significantly FN votes.
And, on the contrary, Dupont-Aignan can take many votes from Villiers: elitist and strongly conservative voters who don't want to vote for the UMP, which is seen as too weak, too open, and who can't even been wooed by Boutin's party, as she is far more social and not nationalist.

And those voters won't go for Villepin as he is an insider of the right, even if he is personally harsh with Sarkozy.

- And, in a way, some wings inside the UMP are sidelined indise the majority....
See the old or middle-old "chiraquiens" (Raffarin, Perben, Baroin, Jacob,...) and, of course, "villepinistes" (Tron, Mariton,...).

That's a pity in the case of Baroin, but I think Sarkozy wants to let "chiraquiens" fade away... And, tactically, he may be right:
Gaymard is out, after a (silly) scandal of appartment,
Dutreil has left politics after his defeat in Reims,
Robien is out after his defeat in Amiens,
Perben has weakened himself in Lyons,
Raffarin is out-of-date (and there's the easy argument of having Bussereau, the only "raffariniste", inside the govenrment)
Ollier can be kept outside with the easy argument that Alliot-Marie, with whom he lives, is inside,
Baroin is forgotten by French people (all the more now that he doesn't live any longer with Marie Drucker, a good-looking TV anchor and daughter of the big media family of the Druckers... and when a politician isn't "inside" the media business any longer, it's a big impediment !).

Apart from Albanel (already out and not threatening politically),
Sarkozy has only "saved" the former juppéistes: Woerth, Bertrand, Apparu, Jégo (but he's now outside the government...).

Pécresse, Falco, Joyandet were real "chiraquiens", but they have rallied Sarkozy early (even before Xavier Bertrand) and well served during the presidential campaign.
And they are local biggies (Falco and Joyandet) or want to become one (Pécresse: BTW, if she loses in 2010 in Ile-de-France, Sarkozy will drop her without hesitating more than a half second, you'll see...).

You spoke about the real opposition on the right with Dupont-Aignant, according to what I said I disagree with that.

Yes, for me the real opposition on the right can come from...Villepin. For me he is the only one who has the energy and the real will to fight against Sarkozy, and you surely saw that he already did, and strongly for someone from the right. Plus he is the only one who would have the strongest network. Yes, as we can see Sarkozists are not that numerous, most of people are chiraquiens, some like Bertrand or Pécresse really converted, but I think that a big number could change if they felt the wind changing. And Villepin can anyways count on his 3 strong supports that are Tron, Mariton and Goulard, these guys can become very strong I think if they have the opportunity. Mariton is a real sniper, Tron is a bit too much of a fan but he can be useful and Goulard has the image of someone serious and efficient. This is for the close guard, and throughout all chiraquiens that could rally him, I think Villepin could find a strong support with Baroin (IMO, Villepin is the only possibility of future for Baroin), and also with...Raffarin, both have been clearly sidelined by Sarkozy but both are strong, and if Villepin has a dynamics around him he could count on that both I think.

In short, the biggest danger for Sarkozy in the years to come is Villepin, and personally, in a run with even Strauss Kahn I could vote for him in presidentials I think, Strauss Kahn is too much a technician, it is not an "homme d'état" (way to refer to a man who is able to lead a state) IMO.


I talked about "real" opposition, as perceived in the medias.
I'm not judging. I'm trying to analyze. (Always this difference that many cannot grasp in this forum).

Of course, Villepin is the most opposed to Sarkozy in the right.
But he has his own media time. When I talked about Dupont-Aignan and Villiers, I talked about some minutes of TV here or there: but, for these outsiders, this is hugely strategic !

BTW, as for Villepin, politically, he may well definitely fall after the September trial. And if he doesn't, a smaller crisis than expected may be bad news for him. 2012 is already too late for him.

Furthermore, locally, the UMP is more and more sarkozyst, especially with Bertrand and the (ugly) Edouard Courtial "grilling" all the local apparatchiks and replacing those "inefficient".
What is more, Sarkozy, with the European elections, with the regional elections (which may be not very good but which can't be worse than in 2004), with its plan for reforming local councillors, pleases many UMP "barons", as he's still seen as an election-winner.

And Villepin is deeply unpopular, among the youngs and the left of course, but also among the right: in 2006, with the CPE (a failed project of working contract for the youth) and the BIG demonstrations it entailed, he may have put the right definitely down.
Many on the right remember that, without Sarkozy and without a divided PS and this Royal clown, the right would have lost the 2007 elections...
And remember who had the SO BRILLIANT idea of dissolving the National Assembly in 1997, paving the way for 5 years of Jospin ?

Among the right, Tron, Goulard and Mariton (the latter is a "moderate" villepinist...) don't count for much. The old chiraquiens, which are more numerous, would support Alliot-Marie (for the moment) and, in 2012 or after, Copé but not Villepin.

And now, I make a personal judgement:
maybe even Bayrou and Royal are less mad than Villepin.
Villepin is so proud of himself, he is full of his own presumed superiority... He seems to live in another dimension or, at least, in a book or a movie, and a thriller or spy book... He seems to see himself as a new Napoleon... He is totally unable to listen to others and to be realistic... He has proved to be so stubborn...
One speech against Bush Jr. (not very hard, eh ?) doesn't make a statesman.
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« Reply #374 on: August 14, 2009, 09:19:47 AM »
« Edited: August 14, 2009, 09:28:57 AM by Senator Hash É. Might »

After the European campaign, they are indebted (it was the same for Villiers after his failed presidential bid of 1995).
And with the "new" electoral system for regional elections, implemented for the first time in 2004, they fear to have no (CPNT) or just one or two (MPF) regional counsellors.

The Euros showed how little room there remains for the MPF-CPNT in the current climate and they see that the only opportunity they have to save their seats (CPNT: 3 general councillors, MPF has a bunch of small things, including 2 MPs) is to ally with the strongest.

I don't like this unholy, heterogeneous Presidential Majority, containing both mad Eurosceptics and Europhiles, both social liberals and social conservatives, both centrists and nationalists... this destroys any chance of me supporting the UMP in anything... I'm not sure who I'll vote for in 2012, with Nihous as a protest option gone... I may end up voting Communist at this rate.

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He only has interest in saving them since they 'converted', more or less. Unlike the others who remain sidelined and forgotten since they're in 'resistance'.

Amusingly, I have the feeling that he might be pushing some 'resistants' to run in the regionals to lose massively and have them feel like sh**t afterwards... and politically out for a good time.

Actually, they are nothing but an old-fashioned thing, a beautiful speech but not slightest energy behind. PRG is Baylet, and Baylet seems to be nothing but the King of Tarn-et-Garonne and of La Dépêche du Midi (a big regional paper of the south-west).

The PRG isn't a political party. It's a faction of the PS.

On the topic of NDA and the DLR, I agree with Fabien. He has little chance to gain political relevance, but he's not politically dead. The Euro results, were, keeping in mind their campaign and their status in the political world, quite pleasing for them...

And Villepin won't be relevant anymore. He was destroyed during his Premiership by the CPE and the left and youth hates him and a large part of the UMP isn't exactly fond of him either. And the guy is full of sh**t and his days as the Hero of France fighting the Evil Americans are looooong gone. And Tron, Mariton and Goulard are irrelevant. I assume the average voter has no clue who they are (outside of their respective strongholds).

Dominique de Villepin.

Not a leader. Not worth the risk.

A message from the Conservative Party of Canada
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