AL-SEN 2020: Doug Jones vs. The Entire Political Establishment of Alabama

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It depends on 2018, if the Dems are down a couple of seats, they will pull out stops to defend Jones. It all depends.

[Yellowhammer]

Likely R, closer to Safe than Lean. Jones only wins if 2020 is 1932 2.0. He’s quite obviously the most vulnerable 2020 incumbent, even more so than Gardner.
His campaign message in 2017 was basically “vote for me because I’m not a pedophile.” In 2020 he’ll just be another generic Democrat, and there won’t be a reason for GOP voters to stay home like in 2017. Jones hardly stands a chance with Trump on the ballot.
I look forward to volunteering for the campaign of the rep nominee, and will enthusiastically vote against Jones.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Likely R, closer to Safe than Lean. Jones only wins if 2020 is 1932 2.0. He’s quite obviously the most vulnerable 2020 incumbent, even more so than Gardner.
His campaign message in 2017 was basically “vote for me because I’m not a pedophile.” In 2020 he’ll just be another generic Democrat, and there won’t be a reason for GOP voters to stay home like in 2017. Jones hardly stands a chance with Trump on the ballot.
I look forward to volunteering for the campaign of the rep nominee, and will enthusiastically vote against Jones.

Doug Jones is a conservative Democrat with excellent constituent outreach. He's not Generic D.

[Yellowhammer]

Likely R, closer to Safe than Lean. Jones only wins if 2020 is 1932 2.0. He’s quite obviously the most vulnerable 2020 incumbent, even more so than Gardner.
His campaign message in 2017 was basically “vote for me because I’m not a pedophile.” In 2020 he’ll just be another generic Democrat, and there won’t be a reason for GOP voters to stay home like in 2017. Jones hardly stands a chance with Trump on the ballot.
I look forward to volunteering for the campaign of the rep nominee, and will enthusiastically vote against Jones.

Doug Jones is a conservative Democrat with excellent constituent outreach. He's not Generic D.

He may be "conservative" by national democratic standards, but he's a good bit to the left of traditional Alabama democrats.

[brucejoel99]

Likely R, closer to Safe than Lean. Jones only wins if 2020 is 1932 2.0. He’s quite obviously the most vulnerable 2020 incumbent, even more so than Gardner.
His campaign message in 2017 was basically “vote for me because I’m not a pedophile.” In 2020 he’ll just be another generic Democrat, and there won’t be a reason for GOP voters to stay home like in 2017. Jones hardly stands a chance with Trump on the ballot.
I look forward to volunteering for the campaign of the rep nominee, and will enthusiastically vote against Jones.

Doug Jones is a conservative Democrat with excellent constituent outreach. He's not Generic D.

He may be "conservative" by national democratic standards, but he's a good bit to the left of traditional Alabama democrats.

Wonder what that must say about those Alabama standards of your's

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Likely R, closer to Safe than Lean. Jones only wins if 2020 is 1932 2.0. He’s quite obviously the most vulnerable 2020 incumbent, even more so than Gardner.
His campaign message in 2017 was basically “vote for me because I’m not a pedophile.” In 2020 he’ll just be another generic Democrat, and there won’t be a reason for GOP voters to stay home like in 2017. Jones hardly stands a chance with Trump on the ballot.
I look forward to volunteering for the campaign of the rep nominee, and will enthusiastically vote against Jones.

Doug Jones is a conservative Democrat with excellent constituent outreach. He's not Generic D.

He may be "conservative" by national democratic standards, but he's a good bit to the left of traditional Alabama democrats.

Yes, but he's still meaningfully different from Generic D.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Likely R, closer to Safe than Lean. Jones only wins if 2020 is 1932 2.0. He’s quite obviously the most vulnerable 2020 incumbent, even more so than Gardner.
His campaign message in 2017 was basically “vote for me because I’m not a pedophile.” In 2020 he’ll just be another generic Democrat, and there won’t be a reason for GOP voters to stay home like in 2017. Jones hardly stands a chance with Trump on the ballot.
I look forward to volunteering for the campaign of the rep nominee, and will enthusiastically vote against Jones.

That wasn't enough for you?

[Yellowhammer]

Likely R, closer to Safe than Lean. Jones only wins if 2020 is 1932 2.0. He’s quite obviously the most vulnerable 2020 incumbent, even more so than Gardner.
His campaign message in 2017 was basically “vote for me because I’m not a pedophile.” In 2020 he’ll just be another generic Democrat, and there won’t be a reason for GOP voters to stay home like in 2017. Jones hardly stands a chance with Trump on the ballot.
I look forward to volunteering for the campaign of the rep nominee, and will enthusiastically vote against Jones.

That wasn't enough for you?

No. I don’t vote for anyone based on what they aren’t.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Likely R, closer to Safe than Lean. Jones only wins if 2020 is 1932 2.0. He’s quite obviously the most vulnerable 2020 incumbent, even more so than Gardner.
His campaign message in 2017 was basically “vote for me because I’m not a pedophile.” In 2020 he’ll just be another generic Democrat, and there won’t be a reason for GOP voters to stay home like in 2017. Jones hardly stands a chance with Trump on the ballot.
I look forward to volunteering for the campaign of the rep nominee, and will enthusiastically vote against Jones.

That wasn't enough for you?

No. I don’t vote for anyone based on what they aren’t.

Hmm, a pedophile or a Democrat? Tough choice, tough choice.

[Calthrina950]

Likely R, closer to Safe than Lean. Jones only wins if 2020 is 1932 2.0. He’s quite obviously the most vulnerable 2020 incumbent, even more so than Gardner.
His campaign message in 2017 was basically “vote for me because I’m not a pedophile.” In 2020 he’ll just be another generic Democrat, and there won’t be a reason for GOP voters to stay home like in 2017. Jones hardly stands a chance with Trump on the ballot.
I look forward to volunteering for the campaign of the rep nominee, and will enthusiastically vote against Jones.

That wasn't enough for you?

No. I don’t vote for anyone based on what they aren’t.

Hmm, a pedophile or a Democrat? Tough choice, tough choice.

I really don't understand the mentality of the people who voted for Roy Moore. Doug Jones is exactly the kind of Democrat that I would have no qualms supporting, and I hope that he at least has a fighting chance in 2020.

[Yellowhammer]

It’s looking like Bradley Byrne will probably run:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/articles.al.com/news/index.ssf/2018/06/bradley_byrne_weighing_challen.amp

[KingSweden]

It’s looking like Bradley Byrne will probably run:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/articles.al.com/news/index.ssf/2018/06/bradley_byrne_weighing_challen.amp

His S. Alabama base would make him formidable. I imagine whoever runs for Shelby’s seat is the one who has their CD dismantled when AL loses a district in 2022

[Maxwell]

If Byrne wins the primary he'd probably beat Jones. I'm not sure he will though.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Tossup. I will wait until the first poll is released.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Unless something miraculous happens, I’d put money on Byrne beating Jones (if it came down to those 2).

[Maxwell]

Nice, but Republicans shouldn’t make the mistake of overhyping his candidacy like they did with Hawley in MO. Byrne could easily lose the primary or general.

I'd be surprised if Byrne didn't have a super competitive primary - and he has things in his background that would be bad in an Alabama Republican primary like being a moderate and supporting teaching evolution in schools.

[Alabama_Indy10]

I believe the upcoming Supreme Court battle is important to Jones if he wants to have a chance at reelection. IMO, anything short of a Yes vote is political suicide.

[JG]

I believe the upcoming Supreme Court battle is important to Jones if he wants to have a chance at reelection. IMO, anything short of a Yes vote is political suicide.

As if people will remember a vote from 2 years before when they have a hard time remembering a scandal from the week before.

[MAINEiac4434]

I believe the upcoming Supreme Court battle is important to Jones if he wants to have a chance at reelection. IMO, anything short of a Yes vote is political suicide.

That would abandon the very voters who put him there, the black voters who came out at presidential levels to support him.

[Alabama_Indy10]

I believe the upcoming Supreme Court battle is important to Jones if he wants to have a chance at reelection. IMO, anything short of a Yes vote is political suicide.

That would abandon the very voters who put him there, the black voters who came out at presidential levels to support him.

That is true but white turnout will be up A LOT over 2017 due to it being a presidential year. 2017 was also an incredibly unique situation.

[Alabama_Indy10]

I believe the upcoming Supreme Court battle is important to Jones if he wants to have a chance at reelection. IMO, anything short of a Yes vote is political suicide.

As if people will remember a vote from 2 years before when they have a hard time remembering a scandal from the week before.

Trust me. If he votes No, it will be on every ad in the state.

[MAINEiac4434]

I believe the upcoming Supreme Court battle is important to Jones if he wants to have a chance at reelection. IMO, anything short of a Yes vote is political suicide.

That would abandon the very voters who put him there, the black voters who came out at presidential levels to support him.

That is true but white turnout will be up A LOT over 2017 due to it being a presidential year. 2017 was also an incredibly unique situation.

He couldn't win white voters over ROY FREAKING MOORE in 2017, he won't be able to win them in 2020. He needs to double down on his base and hope the Republicans put up another dreadful candidate. Pandering to conservative whites won't win him any votes, but will cost him many.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I believe the upcoming Supreme Court battle is important to Jones if he wants to have a chance at reelection. IMO, anything short of a Yes vote is political suicide.

That would abandon the very voters who put him there, the black voters who came out at presidential levels to support him.

That is true but white turnout will be up A LOT over 2017 due to it being a presidential year. 2017 was also an incredibly unique situation.

He couldn't win white voters over ROY FREAKING MOORE in 2017, he won't be able to win them in 2020. He needs to double down on his base and hope the Republicans put up another dreadful candidate. Pandering to conservative whites won't win him any votes, but will cost him many.

This is so painfully incorrect that it hurts. The base is going to be far more "motivated" by the presidential election. Hardly anyone cares about the Senate besides old farts. Doug Jones needs to win over old farts who are voting Republican in the presidential but get them to vote specifically for him.

Old farts tend to be far more informed about politics than young folks, who barely understand what the downballot even is.

Also, no, black voters did not turn out anywhere close to 2016 levels in Alabama. Only about 75% of blacks who voted in 2016 turned out in 2018.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Every liberal candidate that runs in Alabama gets a whopping 38%. All of the successful dems in Alabama have been white DINOs.

Why is that?

Because persuading moderate swing voters WORKS.... better than turning out the base. It doesn't really work very well in Alabama, but it's the best democrats have. Dems have to hope the presidential candidate turns out black people really well so Jones can focus on crossover votes.

[Alabama_Indy10]

I believe the upcoming Supreme Court battle is important to Jones if he wants to have a chance at reelection. IMO, anything short of a Yes vote is political suicide.

That would abandon the very voters who put him there, the black voters who came out at presidential levels to support him.

That is true but white turnout will be up A LOT over 2017 due to it being a presidential year. 2017 was also an incredibly unique situation.

He couldn't win white voters over ROY FREAKING MOORE in 2017, he won't be able to win them in 2020. He needs to double down on his base and hope the Republicans put up another dreadful candidate. Pandering to conservative whites won't win him any votes, but will cost him many.

Where in my statement did I say he would win white voters? That’s not going to happen. He won in 2017 because black voters turned out and white voters largely didn’t (compared to usual). This will change in a presidential year.