AL-SEN 2020: Doug Jones vs. The Entire Political Establishment of Alabama

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I should be clear that I actually think the initial polling for Jones and Gardner will be quite good. I wouldn't be surprised to see both of their initial polling to show a competitive race.

But just like Dean Heller, Mccaskill, Donnelly, Erik Paulsen, Coffman etc... the end result won't actually be close.

[Alabama_Indy10]

I think Jones is toast. Not only because of his vote against Kavanaugh but because he has to share a ballot with Trump in a presidential year.

[lfromnj]

I should be clear that I actually think the initial polling for Jones and Gardner will be quite good. I wouldn't be surprised to see both of their initial polling to show a competitive race.

But just like Dean Heller, Mccaskill, Donnelly, Erik Paulsen, Coffman etc... the end result won't actually be close.

Dean heller is a bit different due to Nevada's laughable polling system which is what will happen with texas as we go into the 2020's.

[IceSpear]

I’d call it Tilt R. Jones is definitely a stronger incumbent than Heitkamp, Donnelly, and McCaskill, but AL is also redder than IN and MO, and it’s a presidential year. We’ll see, a lot will depend on who they nominate.

Will you change your rating after Espy gets BTFO?

[MT Treasurer]

I’d call it Tilt R. Jones is definitely a stronger incumbent than Heitkamp, Donnelly, and McCaskill, but AL is also redder than IN and MO, and it’s a presidential year. We’ll see, a lot will depend on who they nominate.

Will you change your rating after Espy gets BTFO?

I think MS is Tilt R simply because special elections are an entirely different beast and Democrats are incredibly energized right now. If Espy loses the runoff in a landslide, I’ll move AL from Tilt R to (Strong) Lean R, yeah.

[Xeuma]

Doesn't Alabama have a straight-party option on their ballots? That could doom Jones as well

Likely/Safe R; Tossup is the nominee is Roy Moore again (which isn't unlikely imo).

[lfromnj]

I’d call it Tilt R. Jones is definitely a stronger incumbent than Heitkamp, Donnelly, and McCaskill, but AL is also redder than IN and MO, and it’s a presidential year. We’ll see, a lot will depend on who they nominate.

Will you change your rating after Espy gets BTFO?

I think MS is Tilt R simply because special elections are an entirely different beast and Democrats are incredibly energized right now. If Espy loses the runoff in a landslide, I’ll move AL from Tilt R to (Strong) Lean R, yeah.

and you believe Nelson will win Florida too? right
Hack.

[MT Treasurer]

and you believe Nelson will win Florida too? right
Hack.

I’m not a Democrat, actually (the username/avatar/signature is because I lost a bet ), but I’m not one to underestimate red state Democrats, no. This year's results and LA-SEN 2016 were certainly encouraging, though. It’s so annoying to see all these red states elect Democratic Senators when there are basically only one or two Republican Senators from blue states left (Collins and Gardner, and CO/ME aren’t even *that* blue).

Nelson? It will obviously go down to the wire, but Democrats always """luck out""" in these insanely close Senate races, unfortunately, so I’m not getting my hopes up.

[Technocracy Timmy]

It’s simple. Phil Bredesen 2.0 will happen.

There will be plenty of polls months out before the election showing a close race with Jones possibly ahead. Then Atlas Democrats will wave their pom poms all the way going into November 2020. Then Jones will lose by double digits.

[Colombia]

Jones is done,he shouldn't even bother to run.

[Xing]

Jones will probably overperform the Democratic ticket by a decent margin, but it won’t be anywhere near enough. I guess I’ll leave this race as Likely R for now, since it’s technically possible that he’ll end up facing another pedophile, but under normal circumstances, he’s definitely toast.

[here2view]

It’s simple. Phil Bredesen 2.0 will happen.

There will be plenty of polls months out before the election showing a close race with Jones possibly ahead. Then Atlas Democrats will wave their pom poms all the way going into November 2020. Then Jones will lose by double digits.

[SnowLabrador]

Can I just say that I love this thread's title?

In all seriousness, though, it won't happen. Jones shouldn't even bother to run, but, if he does, he'll lose by at least 15-20 points.

[lfromnj]

Yeah Im here to destroy democrats about Alabama 2020 when they see the first polls showing Jones +5 and then he collapses mid september and democrats get excited about R challenger +2 in late october and claims its only lean R and tossup tilt D by December.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Likely R. As others have said, Jones is probably a stronger incumbent that someone like McCaskill, but he's in even less favorable territory.

I would want to see some polling before completely writing him off though. And who knows, maybe the AL GOP can find someone almost as bad as Moore and the race will be closer than expected.

[Devout Centrist]

Pretty sure Jones is a goner after Tuesday. Would make a great AG.

[lfromnj]

Likely R. As others have said, Jones is probably a stronger incumbent that someone like McCaskill, but he's in even less favorable territory.

I would want to see some polling before completely writing him off though. And who knows, maybe the AL GOP can find someone almost as bad as Moore and the race will be closer than expected.

Ok I think we can all agree the worst Trump is doing in 2020 in a blue wave in alabama is 57-43 and thats probably generous. Describe the 7 percent Trump Jones voters.

[RaphaelDLG]

Likely R. 

I think the most likely trajectory DSCC will try to support Jones early in the cycle, but really quickly the polling will be clear that he has no chance, and then they'll pull money from him, and the bottom will fall out, and he'll lose handily.

But there are universes where he is able to use his incumbency to make the race somewhat competitive in a durable way and then get lucky before/on election day.

[Skill and Chance]

His state went 8% more Trump than Indiana and Missouri.  He has basically the same voting record as Donnelly and McCaskill, and he also won primarily because his opponent was a very, very bad candidate (even worse than Donnelly's and McCaskill's opponents).  The 2018 Alabama governor's race was 60/40 with a strong Dem candidate.  Jones has already lost if his opponent isn't Moore again.  If Moore doesn't declare for the seat, no Dem money should be spent here.

[lfromnj]

His state went 8% more Trump than Indiana and Missouri.  He has basically the same voting record as Donnelly and McCaskill, and he also won primarily because his opponent was a very, very bad candidate (even worse than Donnelly's and McCaskill's opponents).  The 2018 Alabama governor's race was 60/40 with a strong Dem candidate.  Jones has already lost if his opponent isn't Moore again.  If Moore doesn't declare for the seat, no Dem money should be spent here.

Don't forget IN and MO are much more elastic than Alabama
Btw whats Jones ceiling against a flawed R candidate(not Roy Moore level with pedo but maybe Roy Moore without pedo) I can see single digits within grasp for him.

[Free Bird]

I looked for a pic of Doug Jones in Ultra Instinct, but I got nothing.

Anyone good with Photoshop?

[Pericles]

If Jones only wins by less than 2% against a literal pedophile, any non-pedophile candidate(and likely Roy Moore too if he ran again but that would at least narrow the odds) would win the seat. While Jones could, possibly, keep it to single digits, he probably won't. This isn't to diminish the significance of him beating Moore, but Alabama is still Alabama. Jones isn't even a moderate good ol boy like Manchin, he is a pretty standard liberal Democrat(and perhaps otherwise he would have won by a bit more, but this is Alabama). December 2017 was truly exceptional circumstances, Jones may be a good candidate but Alabama in a presidential election against a non-pedophile Republican is virtually impossible for him, or any Democrat, to win, and so most likely it's a double digit loss. Likely R, not quite Safe yet because Doug could have luck go his way again but I highly doubt the stars will align for him as they did in December 2017(of course his own effort was critical in actually winning it, but still)

[ElectionsGuy]

He should retire, he doesn't have a chance unless Roy Moore is renominated, and even then Trump will be on the top of the ballot.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Before the midterms, I would've rated the race "Leans Republican. Now it's "Likely"

They just have to keep Roy Moore away...even then, there's a chance since it's a presidential year.