AL-SEN 2020: Doug Jones vs. The Entire Political Establishment of Alabama

[here2view]

If the votes  from moderate Republicans aren't there, by all means the red state Dems should vote for the nominee. If the votes ARE there, then those red state Dems better vote to block, because otherwise they're completely and utterly useless.

[MT Treasurer]

Jones doesn’t need to vote for Trump's Supreme Court pick in order to win reelection. He ran and won as a pragmatic liberal, and red state voters care more about personality/charisma/campaign and candidate quality/perceived authenticity/etc. than random votes their Senator cast years or months before election day. Tester and McCaskill are the most liberal red state Democrats and still doing much better in polling than some other, more moderate Democrats right now. The importance of firing up your base isn’t something that should be underestimated.

[OneJ]

People on this forum seem to love overestimating the effect of a senator representing their state voting against (or for) a SCOTUS nominee. The vast majority of voters neither care or vote based on what happens in SCOTUS.

[Calthrina950]

Jones doesn’t need to vote for Trump's Supreme Court pick in order to win reelection. He ran and won as a pragmatic liberal, and red state voters care more about personality/charisma/campaign and candidate quality/perceived authenticity/etc. than random votes their Senator cast years or months before election day. Tester and McCaskill are the most liberal red state Democrats and still doing much better in polling than some other, more moderate Democrats right now. The importance of firing up your base isn’t something that should be underestimated.

This is certainly what I care about. I would rather have a Senator who understands the state well and represents it to the best of his or her ability, than a Senator who doesn't, regardless of which party they belong to.

[smoltchanov]

Jones doesn’t need to vote for Trump's Supreme Court pick in order to win reelection. He ran and won as a pragmatic liberal, and red state voters care more about personality/charisma/campaign and candidate quality/perceived authenticity/etc. than random votes their Senator cast years or months before election day. Tester and McCaskill are the most liberal red state Democrats and still doing much better in polling than some other, more moderate Democrats right now. The importance of firing up your base isn’t something that should be underestimated.

This is certainly what I care about. I would rather have a Senator who understands the state well and represents it to the best of his or her ability, than a Senator who doesn't, regardless of which party they belong to.

Me too. And that means, that Senator from Alabama must vote conservatively on at least some issues, and  Senator from Massachussetts - liberally on at  least some issues, their party notwithstanding.

[Progressive Pessimist]

People on this forum seem to love overestimating the effect of a senator representing their state voting against (or for) a SCOTUS nominee. The vast majority of voters neither care or vote based on what happens in SCOTUS.

All the more reason for them to vote against it. The future of the country is at stake in a very real way. This also applies to Collins and Murkowski.

[Alabama_Indy10]

State Auditor Jim Ziegler (R) is apparently considering a run.

http://www.alreporter.com/2018/11/08/zeigler-mulls-run-for-us-senate/

[here2view]

Barring Roy Moore part 2, I don't see a feasible scenario where Jones wins.

[KingSweden]

AL Indy - I have to imagine there are a LOT of ambitious pols in Alabama who want a crack st this who wouldn’t defer to Sessions, correct?

[Alabama_Indy10]

AL Indy - I have to imagine there are a LOT of ambitious pols in Alabama who want a crack st this who wouldn’t defer to Sessions, correct?

Although I still think Sessions is pretty popular, I believe you are right. I imagine a lot of people are gearing up for a run.

[OBD]

Likely R after Donnelly, Heitkamp, and McCaskill

[lfromnj]

Safe R after Donnelly, Heitkamp, and McCaskill

fixed it
All 3 of the above states are infinitely more elastic than Alabama which is literally a 55% R floor no matter what.

[auburntiger]

Lean R at best. It's the inverse of Mass-Senate 2012

[beesley]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/doug-jones-thinks-hes-supposed-to-be-here/

I'm honestly tempted to categorize this as a Lean R race this far out, but Jones probably has a better shot in 2020 than people give him credit for.

I agree. It could however go to the Likely R column very easily.

[Alabama_Indy10]

https://www.al.com/news/2018/11/65-percent-of-alabama-voters-cast-straight-ticket-ballots.html

An example of how polarized Alabama is. 65% of voters cast a straight ticket ballot Tuesday.

[lfromnj]

https://www.al.com/news/2018/11/65-percent-of-alabama-voters-cast-straight-ticket-ballots.html

An example of how polarized Alabama is. 65% of voters cast a straight ticket ballot Tuesday.

Im guessing you were one of the 35?

[Alabama_Indy10]

https://www.al.com/news/2018/11/65-percent-of-alabama-voters-cast-straight-ticket-ballots.html

An example of how polarized Alabama is. 65% of voters cast a straight ticket ballot Tuesday.

Im guessing you were one of the 35?

That is correct.

[lfromnj]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/doug-jones-thinks-hes-supposed-to-be-here/

I'm honestly tempted to categorize this as a Lean R race this far out, but Jones probably has a better shot in 2020 than people give him credit for.

I agree. It could however go to the Likely R column very easily.

I love how democrat senators in WV barely won by 3 points with a huge name brand and people expect Jones to win when all he was on the ballot was (Not a pedo). Literally ANYBODY but Roy Moore beats him by atleast high singles .

Its Safe R. 

[Snipee356]

Jones shouldn't bother. He should be the VP nominee.

[lfromnj]

I’d call it Tilt R. Jones is definitely a stronger incumbent than Heitkamp, Donnelly, and McCaskill, but AL is also redder than IN and MO, and it’s a presidential year. We’ll see, a lot will depend on who they nominate.

lmao lol @tilt R
Remember the Alabama exit polls
Trumps approval was 49 and dissaproval was like 48. There were like no swing voters. It was all turnout. In a presidential year Trump will get atleast 57% percent in Alabama even in a yuge democrat wave and the dem gets 43. There won't be the split voters in Alabama. For every Alabama_Indy who might consider Jones there will be 50 Paulite Hicks.

[Alabama_Indy10]

I’d call it Tilt R. Jones is definitely a stronger incumbent than Heitkamp, Donnelly, and McCaskill, but AL is also redder than IN and MO, and it’s a presidential year. We’ll see, a lot will depend on who they nominate.

lmao lol @tilt R
Remember the Alabama exit polls
Trumps approval was 49 and dissaproval was like 48. There were like no swing voters. It was all turnout. In a presidential year Trump will get atleast 57% percent in Alabama even in a yuge democrat wave and the dem gets 43. There won't be the split voters in Alabama. For every Alabama_Indy who might consider Jones there will be 50 Paulite Hicks.

I actually voted for Jones last time but unless the Republicans literally nominate Roy Moore again (or another pedo) I will be voting Republican.

[lfromnj]

I’d call it Tilt R. Jones is definitely a stronger incumbent than Heitkamp, Donnelly, and McCaskill, but AL is also redder than IN and MO, and it’s a presidential year. We’ll see, a lot will depend on who they nominate.

lmao lol @tilt R
Remember the Alabama exit polls
Trumps approval was 49 and dissaproval was like 48. There were like no swing voters. It was all turnout. In a presidential year Trump will get atleast 57% percent in Alabama even in a yuge democrat wave and the dem gets 43. There won't be the split voters in Alabama. For every Alabama_Indy who might consider Jones there will be 50 Paulite Hicks.

I actually voted for Jones last time but unless the Republicans literally nominate Roy Moore again (or another pedo) I will be voting Republican.

Fair enough I guess. I would be the same but I wouldn't want another Theocrat like Moore even without pedo.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Safe R unless 2020 is a democratic tsunami. Would have to be a bit bigger than 2008 wave for it to be competitive.

Colorado Senate is Likely D

[Alabama_Indy10]

I’d call it Tilt R. Jones is definitely a stronger incumbent than Heitkamp, Donnelly, and McCaskill, but AL is also redder than IN and MO, and it’s a presidential year. We’ll see, a lot will depend on who they nominate.

lmao lol @tilt R
Remember the Alabama exit polls
Trumps approval was 49 and dissaproval was like 48. There were like no swing voters. It was all turnout. In a presidential year Trump will get atleast 57% percent in Alabama even in a yuge democrat wave and the dem gets 43. There won't be the split voters in Alabama. For every Alabama_Indy who might consider Jones there will be 50 Paulite Hicks.

I actually voted for Jones last time but unless the Republicans literally nominate Roy Moore again (or another pedo) I will be voting Republican.

Fair enough I guess. I would be the same but I wouldn't want another Theocrat like Moore even without pedo.

I also wouldn't support someone like Tom Parker. He's basically Roy Moore without the pedo allegations.

[lfromnj]

Safe R unless 2020 is a democratic tsunami. Would have to be a bit bigger than 2008 wave for it to be competitive.

Colorado Senate is Likely D

Yeah basically this.

I can see Gardner surviving in a republican wave if the dem nominee for president completely fails but Jones is Toast. Garnder is close to Toast though but I am not willing to call it Safe D yet.