2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/AnthonySabatini/status/1397970002247102465

It's amazing that losers like this get elected even by Republicans.

[Non Swing Voter]

Wont Miami be underwater by 2050?

[Non Swing Voter]

I tried my hand at a hardline Republican gerrymander of Florida using the 2020 census results. If Republicans go all out, the map will likely look something like this (perhaps with an extra Democratic sink in Miami-Dade County).

It seems more likely that we see a 19R - 9D or 18R - 10D map instead, though.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.01%, and it reflects the 2020 Census.

33/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
56/100 on the Compactness Index
43/100 on County Splitting
76/100 on the Minority Representation index
31/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 19R to 9D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 17R to 11D

2018 Florida Attorney General Election: 17R to 11D

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Florida: 17R to 11D

2018 Florida Gubernatorial Election: 17R to 11D

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida: 20R to 8D


This map has three majority-Hispanic districts in Miami-Dade, as well as a fourth majority-Hispanic district in the Orlando metro.

It also has a 50% Black district based in Miami-Dade, a 50% Black district based in North Broward and Palm Beach. Neither of these districts are very compact but this is how it is now.

It seems very likely in the future that it will be easier to make a compact North Broward Black VRA district (where the Black population is expanding) than it will be in Miami-Dade (because in Miami and the Southern reaches of the Black areas, the population is shrinking fast, and in the Northern reaches, such as East Miramar and Miami Gardens, the Black population is growing sluggishly, not enough to balance out).

The Jacksonville metro area has been split straight down the middle as evenly as possible, and both seats there voted for Trump by 13.1% in the 2020 presidential election. The Duval overperformance has lessened the margins from the previously expected Trump+17% and Trump+16% numbers, but it is still probably safe for the Republicans until 2024 or 2026 (Jacksonville's dynamic is similar to Atlanta's, demographically and politically). It will be interesting to see how long it'll take for the dummymander to fall.

Also, this is already when taking advantage of Union, Bradford, and Baker Counties to the West. Remove those and you can only manage Trump+11% districts.

By 2030 it will be mandatory for a Black-plurality seat solely to be placed in Jacksonville if things continue at this rate. Currently, a 37% Black seat can be made there, but Florida's districts are much larger than average due to it narrowly missing out on a 29th seat this apportionment.

The Republican seats are thin in Miami-Dade, but a fajita into Collier could theoretically make them redder. If Cubans shift even a smidge leftwards, the house of cards will fall but these are the risks you have to take to get a 20 - 8 map.

The Seminole-Lake-Volusia district may run into trouble, but it will happen later than you think, especially because Seminole's demographic transformation is being balanced out by high growth in North Brevard, Eastern Lake County, and the Deltona suburbs.

The Southeast Hillsborough-North Manatee County district has a similar dynamic, except it is trending much faster towards Democrats and is currently somewhat more Republican.


Opinions?

Would that comply with the VRA?  So we are looking at the GOP likely gaining 2 seats?  How much would that risk being a dummymander in Miami though.  A lot of those low propensity Trump voters can't be counted on to turn out in 2022 right?

[Non Swing Voter]

I love that we've normalized that a Florida Supreme Court will ignore a disadvantageous amendment to the State Constitution because "it's now a Republican court."

Yes, but I don't think we as posters normalized this.  It's just an objective fact at this point that Republicans (including partisan Judges) lack any integrity or shame.