Unless we start getting like McCaskill +10 polls, my rating for this race will stay at Lean R through the summer. I'm still feeling that this race will be GA 2014 - Nunn/McCaskill has a notable lead for a while, but loses it by the end of the campaign.
So even though polls are everything for other races (like Florida), polls don't count in Missouri because it *reminds* you of a race from a completely different state with completely different fundamentals? What's the parallel here? Nunn did not "have a notable lead for a while". Polls were all over the place early on, with the average being a modest Perdue lead. Then she moved *slightly* ahead in October. Several polls this year have all shown anything from Hawley up by 1 to McCaskill up by 4.
Are you sure it's not, dare I say, bias, that's preventing you from rating this a Toss-Up?
Well, if the reality that Missouri was 22 points to the nation's right in 2016 is "bias", so be it.
