Official North Carolina Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[J. J.]

Exit polls indicate that Obama led in the west of the state

Expected, Chicago Media Market.

Edit:  Wrong state, sorry.

[J. J.]

Well, it looks like its going to be a bad night for Clinton, seeing as how she might lose here by double digits. I suppose she'll keep her campaign going but I think that the supers will really rush towards Obama now and will have this thing over by early June. The only question remaining is when and if she'll drop out. I have to give her credit though, she gave it her all and put up a really good fight.

I don't trust the exit polls.

[J. J.]

Obama 20 points at 4%

[J. J.]

Obama up by 32 at 8%.

[J. J.]

Slowly dropping now a 28 point lead for Obama.

[J. J.]

Probably Gettysburg, third day.

Hillary is closing the gap slightly.

[J. J.]

Now at 36%, Obama leading by 20.  It will possibly be closer than expected.

[J. J.]

Now at 36%, Obama leading by 20.  It will possibly be closer than expected.

...Didn't you predict Obama +4?

The expectation was by the exit polls.

I think it was 4-7, it's now 43 % and he's at 18.  I'm guessing the rural votes are out.  It's Obama's win, but it keeps on closing.

[J. J.]

Obama 14 at 55%.

[J. J.]

Obama 14 at 58%.

[J. J.]

Zogby had it right!  14 points!

[J. J.]

Hey J. J., remember how Obama was overpolling so much due to the Bradley effect?

I thought it would be lower; I was surprised that Zogby got it right.

[J. J.]

Hey J. J., remember how Obama was overpolling so much due to the Bradley effect?

I thought it would be lower; I was surprised that Zogby got it right.

Maybe you can quit dismissing every Zogby poll by just saying "It's Zogby." while arguing that ARG and uni polls have validity. (Not that I'm totally sold on Zogby yet, but still...)

Getting it right once is noteworthy.  Getting it wrong for 4 years is laughable.

[J. J.]

Let's see, I've said that one Univ polll, F and M is good in PA, that I wasn't too overjoyed with ARG, and that generally Zogby is crap.  Zogby got NC right, for once.

I've also said, for a few months, that MI/FL will be seated.

[J. J.]

Let's see, I've said that one Univ polll, F and M is good in PA, that I wasn't too overjoyed with ARG, and that generally Zogby is crap.  Zogby got NC right, for once.

I've also said, for a few months, that MI/FL will be seated.

When I've called non-F and M uni polls crap you pretty much responded with "LOLz@Zack the Barak Hack", you don't dismiss every single ARG poll with just saying "It's ARG" and have even flat out said ARG is more valid than Zogby. And I also have thought FL/MI will get seated...once they can't make a difference, which is the case now.

One way or another, they would be seated.  If they were not, whomever was nominated would be seen a illegitimate (which is why I really wanted Dean to step in and have a revote).

The only really good univ poll that I've said was F and M (the old Millersville Univ poll).  I believe I've said that i wasn't overjoyed with ARG.

And yes, Obama should have ended it a while ago.  He finally met the test by holding Hillary over the April 22- May 5 period.

[J. J.]

Let's see, I've said that one Univ polll, F and M is good in PA, that I wasn't too overjoyed with ARG, and that generally Zogby is crap.  Zogby got NC right, for once.

I've also said, for a few months, that MI/FL will be seated.

When I've called non-F and M uni polls crap you pretty much responded with "LOLz@Zack the Barak Hack", you don't dismiss every single ARG poll with just saying "It's ARG" and have even flat out said ARG is more valid than Zogby. And I also have thought FL/MI will get seated...once they can't make a difference, which is the case now.

One way or another, they would be seated.  If they were not, whomever was nominated would be seen a illegitimate (which is why I really wanted Dean to step in and have a revote).

Why do you care? It's not your party, so why does it matter to you? Also not like Dean could force a revote (and he really wanted one), but it's moot at this point. And no one in the party other than Hillary and the state parties seemed to care that much, rendering the "illegitimacy" issue moot, Obama would no doubt rather have those states disenfranchised than lose the nomination, and I have no problem with that.

I do have an interest, just simply that I don't wish to see either party nominee as being illegitimate.  The voters there do care.  I wouldn't want PA's Democratic delegates disenfranchised, for that matter.

I'll note that favor voter disenfranchisement for the future.

You defended an obviously crap Marist U one that had McCain winning New York.

I cited it, not defended it; I think most state polls of the general are way too early.

Yes, and I'm not overjoyed with Zogby. However they are more accurate than ARG. Yet you dismiss every single Zogby poll just by saying "It's Zogby" implying that Zogby is 100% worthless trash yet don't apply the same standard to ARG, implying they may not be that good but aren't 100% worthless. In fact when I proposed that ARG polls be banned from the database your counter-argument was "It's not Zogby." implying ARG is somehow better.

I'm implying that Zogby usually gets it very wrong and has since 2004 at least.  I imply nothing about ARG, except I'm not really enthusiastic about it.  I've stated that I trust Rasmussen and Mason-Dixon the most.

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Ah, you greatly overestimated Obama's vote in PA, which kinda runs counter to that.  And there your Pastor Wright's FF to HP switch.  L'il Zach the Barack Hack is well deserved (though you actually didn't criticize me for calling him very "articulate," for which I will give you credit).