Ukraine Crisis

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

In related news, US to deploy M1 Abrams to Estonia in October and are now backing Japanese ownership of the South Kuril Islands.

So now we're hopping on board with the xenophobic militarists who openly want to revive the empire and abandoning the San Francisco Treaty and the will of the ethnic Russians in the Kurils? That's not hypocritical at all (and it certainly won't help curry favor with China).

He, who has sown shall reap. At this point I would also consider supporting the restitution of Boli and Haishenwai

I think you can understand the difference between the situations in Eastern Ukraine (for the record I don't support Putin's incursion there, though I couldn't care less about Crimea) and the Kuril Islands.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I really don't care about imaginary lines on a map. The South Kuril's inhabitants want to be Russian and would suffer under a very xenophobic Japanese government and culture. The Donetsk and Luhansk provinces only have a vocal minority which wants to join Russia, and should not be annexed.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

All the sympathy I had for Moscow's line of thought (mostly in the immediate aftermath of the Kiev revolution and when the Ukrainian far-right appeared stronger than it is now) has long dried up. This just cements it.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Let's say that Crimea held a legitimate referendum (I'm definitely not under the impression that the one in March was fair) and chose to stay in Russia with, say, 60% of the vote. What would you support then, ag?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

My solution, for the record:

Place Crimea under temporary UN administration and hold a three-way referendum between Russia, Ukraine, and independence. One of these three options has to get over 50% to win outright.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

"peacekeeping"

Make no mistake, this is two imperialist blocs (NATO and Russia) jockeying for control of natural gas production; Ukraine is an important proxy location as a major pipeline location. It seems now that Russia has at least the economic backing of China with their new gas deals.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

"peacekeeping"

Make no mistake, this is two imperialist blocs (NATO and Russia) jockeying for control of natural gas production; Ukraine is an important proxy location as a major pipeline location. It seems now that Russia has at least the economic backing of China with their new gas deals.

This is new.

World War I started due to competition between the British and German markets. World War III will start when the will of Western markets on one side and Sino-Russian markets on the other to dominate takes over the will to mutually trade, even if for a single impulsive moment.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Manufacturers, defense contractors, and fossil fuel magnates. That's all you need.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Putin is probably okay with being China's economic client, in that case. Russo-Chinese trade will surely increase thanks to the EU/American sanctions. China is diplomatically neutral on Ukraine because they ultimately don't care about it, but also because Russia makes a nice attack dog, because it brings the Kazakhs and Uzbeks more into Beijing's sphere, and because Russia and China both have disputes with Japan.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

There are a few other things that could be done. Sanction every airline that flies into Crimea (and every airport that receives flights from Crimea). Make the western-oriented states that have not joined in join the sanctions (South Korea, where are you? BTW, when Mr. Netaniyahu comes visiting, as I've heard he is planning, he should get an earfull as well - that would help Speaker Boehner get rid of the charges he cares more about a foreign government, than about his own). Run a few big exercises with the Japanese near the Kuril islands. Invite President Nazarbayev for a State Visit to the US (a speech to Congress would add an extra nice touch).  Have as many presidents and prime ministers as possible attend the V-E Day parade in Kiev - Ukraine is as much as successor to the USSR here as Russia is.

This would backfire immensely from a tactical standpoint. The Putin government collapsing (if that is the intended result of your sanction/ostracization proposals) would not result in a liberal Russia, but an ultranationalist and presumably more trigger-happy Russia--that is, the NSDAP to Putin's DNVP.

(If I haven't already, I do apologize for my Putin apologism last year)