Much, much easier to envision a plausible path for a Democratic candidate in MO (requires population growth + an utter Republican collapse in support in the Kansas City/St. Louis areas). VA is about as likely to vote for a Republican for president as MD.
I mostly agree with this. It's an elasticity issue. Southern states seem to only flip once every 30+ years and when they go they are quickly gone at every level. Midwestern states can more easily go for the "wrong" party in a landslide win even if it doesn't mean any kind of long term trend (IN 2008, MO 1980's).
Also think there's a more plausible path for the GOP to flip MD than VA. Hogan #'s in the rural areas + Baltimore starts to swing like the Detroit area.
At the federal level? Not a chance in hell. Maryland is among the last five states that would flip at the federal level during a Republican landslide.
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