NC-SEN 2020: Tar Heel Tillis

[Orser67]

Nate Silver (and various others) speculating that Burr could resign in light of the fact that he sold >$500k in stock before the Coronavirus hit the U.S.; this would trigger a special election in November 2020.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1240813540795191296

[pppolitics]

Senator Sold Hundreds of Thousands of Dollars in Stocks After Suggesting U.S. Was Prepared for Coronavirus

Two weeks after the sales, Senator Richard Burr warned a nonpartisan group that the virus could soon cause a major disruption in the United States.

WASHINGTON — Senator Richard M. Burr sold hundreds of thousands of dollars’ worth of stock in major companies last month, as President Trump and others in his party were still playing down the threat presented by the coronavirus outbreak and before the stock market’s precipitous plunge.

The stocks were sold in mid-February, days after Mr. Burr, Republican of North Carolina and the chairman of the Intelligence Committee, wrote an opinion piece for Fox News suggesting that the United States was “better prepared than ever before” to confront the virus.

Two weeks after the sales, Mr. Burr spoke at the Capitol Hill Club in Washington to a nonpartisan group called the Tar Heel Club, warning that the virus could soon cause a major disruption in the United States.

The gathering, which drew fewer than 100 people, included representatives from the North Carolina governor’s office, as well as staff members from other congressional offices in the state.

“There’s one thing that I can tell you about this — it is much more aggressive in its transmission than anything we have seen in recent history,” Mr. Burr said, according to a recording obtained by NPR, which reported on his remarks on Thursday. “It’s probably more akin to the 1918 pandemic.”

[...]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/us/politics/richard-burr-coronavirus-stocks.html

[MT Treasurer]

This year just keeps getting worse and worse for Senate Republicans. The Senate is already a Tossup, and if there’s another special election in NC, Democrats have a clear path to a majority even if Trump is reelected.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Nate Silver (and various others) speculating that Burr could resign in light of the fact that he sold >$500k in stock before the Coronavirus hit the U.S.; this would trigger a special election in November 2020.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1240813540795191296

Couldn't a Democratic placeholder just say they're switching parties and then get appointed?

[Galeel]

Nate Silver (and various others) speculating that Burr could resign in light of the fact that he sold >$500k in stock before the Coronavirus hit the U.S.; this would trigger a special election in November 2020.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1240813540795191296

Couldn't a Democratic placeholder just say they're switching parties and then get appointed?

IDK the specifics of North Carolina law, but I think in other states with this rule the state party of the resigning senator provides a short list of candidates, who the governor chooses between.

[voice_of_resistance]

This is why I wish Walter Jones was still alive. But seriously, double barrels in AZ, GA, and NC means Trump/Dem Senate seriously becomes a possibility, along with a mortal threat to Moscow Mitch's judge factory.

[We Live in Black and White]

When Richard Burr is a crook and you're gonna win the North Carolina trifecta because of it.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Special election watch.

https://twitter.com/santucci/status/1240836933359742976?s=21

[Badger]

Special election watch.

https://twitter.com/santucci/status/1240836933359742976?s=21

Insert it's happening gif

[Gracile]

Special election watch.

https://twitter.com/santucci/status/1240836933359742976?s=21

Massive if true. We could see Senate control slip into the Democrat's hands at this point.

[Virginiá]

This is why I wish Walter Jones was still alive. But seriously, double barrels in AZ, GA, and NC means Trump/Dem Senate seriously becomes a possibility, along with a mortal threat to Moscow Mitch's judge factory.

NC Republicans amended the law prior to the 2018 elections that changed it from simply mandating the replacement be from the same party to requiring the replacement to be from a short list of candidates put forth by the party of the current officeholder. If they hadn't done this, Cooper definitely could have nominated a faux Republican.

Cooper didn't sign or veto it, so it did go into effect, but this was when the NCGOP had a super-majority and was regularly overriding his vetoes, so I suppose he didn't see a point in vetoing it at the time.

[Zaybay]

In 2019, the senate looked like a steep uphill battle. At the dawn of 2020, the path became clear, though narrow. Now, the senate becomes a genuine pure tossup with the possibility of a huge Democratic majority.

My, how things change.

[MT Treasurer]

In 2019, the senate looked like a steep uphill battle. At the dawn of 2020, the path became clear, though narrow. Now, the senate becomes a genuine pure tossup with the possibility of a huge Democratic majority.

My, how things change.

Just to underscore how awful this election cycle has been for Republicans, this is a list of Republican-held Senate seats Democrats have made competitive and could actually win (especially for those who still doubt that there’s a path to a Democratic majority because #polarization or whatever):

Low-hanging fruit
*CO (probably flipping even if Trump wins reelection)
*AZ (probably flipping even if Trump wins reelection)
*NC-S
*NC
*GA-S
*GA
*MT
*ME

Expand the Map: Races which are less competitive but far from safe R
*KS
*TX
*AK
(*IA if things get really bad for Republicans)
(*KY if things get really bad for Republicans)

Whether Jones loses or not (AL Republicans seem to be trying their best to make sure he doesn’t), flipping the Senate is more than doable.

[The Ex-Factor]

This year just keeps getting worse and worse for Senate Republicans. The Senate is already a Tossup, and if there’s another special election in NC, Democrats have a clear path to a majority even if Trump is reelected.

If Trump is reelected I doubt Democrats many of the NC and Georgia seats. However if Trump loses the downside risk for Republicans is huge atm

[Pollster]

Not Tillis related, but Congress insider trading inquiry looks 'particularly damning' for Senator Burr, expert says.

At what point is Burr's resignation too late for a special election to be held in November? Possible Mitch is seeing the way the winds are blowing with Cunningham/Tillis and is having Burr hold out.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Not Tillis related, but Congress insider trading inquiry looks 'particularly damning' for Senator Burr, expert says.

At what point is Burr's resignation too late for a special election to be held in November? Possible Mitch is seeing the way the winds are blowing with Cunningham/Tillis and is having Burr hold out.

The election law they've published online says a special election for US Senator will occur at the next election for the NC General Assembly (which is up in 2020), provided that election day is more than 60 days after the original vacancy occurred (so, at the latest, he'd have to leave on Sept. 3).

[Lognog]

Not Tillis related, but Congress insider trading inquiry looks 'particularly damning' for Senator Burr, expert says.

At what point is Burr's resignation too late for a special election to be held in November? Possible Mitch is seeing the way the winds are blowing with Cunningham/Tillis and is having Burr hold out.

The election law they've published online says a special election for US Senator will occur at the next election for the NC General Assembly (which is up in 2020), provided that election day is more than 60 days after the original vacancy occurred (so, at the latest, he'd have to leave on Sept. 3).

What's stopping him from doing what Ralph Northam did in the wake of his blackface scandal?

I get that a lot of Republicans in congress and popular figures on the right have called for him to step down, but a lot of prominent democrats called for Ralph Northam to resign too. All northam had to do in the words of Deng Xiaoping "bide our time, be good at maintaining a low profile, and never claim leadership". Northam did that in a media cycle that was much slower so why can't Burr do the same?

[Pollster]

Not Tillis related, but Congress insider trading inquiry looks 'particularly damning' for Senator Burr, expert says.

At what point is Burr's resignation too late for a special election to be held in November? Possible Mitch is seeing the way the winds are blowing with Cunningham/Tillis and is having Burr hold out.

The election law they've published online says a special election for US Senator will occur at the next election for the NC General Assembly (which is up in 2020), provided that election day is more than 60 days after the original vacancy occurred (so, at the latest, he'd have to leave on Sept. 3).

What's stopping him from doing what Ralph Northam did in the wake of his blackface scandal?

I get that a lot of Republicans in congress and popular figures on the right have called for him to step down, but a lot of prominent democrats called for Ralph Northam to resign too. All northam had to do in the words of Deng Xiaoping "bide our time, be good at maintaining a low profile, and never claim leadership". Northam did that in a media cycle that was much slower so why can't Burr do the same?

What Northam did was socially repugnant but ultimately not illegal. Burr has likely broken multiple laws, in addition to being socially repugnant.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Not Tillis related, but Congress insider trading inquiry looks 'particularly damning' for Senator Burr, expert says.

At what point is Burr's resignation too late for a special election to be held in November? Possible Mitch is seeing the way the winds are blowing with Cunningham/Tillis and is having Burr hold out.

The election law they've published online says a special election for US Senator will occur at the next election for the NC General Assembly (which is up in 2020), provided that election day is more than 60 days after the original vacancy occurred (so, at the latest, he'd have to leave on Sept. 3).

What's stopping him from doing what Ralph Northam did in the wake of his blackface scandal?

I get that a lot of Republicans in congress and popular figures on the right have called for him to step down, but a lot of prominent democrats called for Ralph Northam to resign too. All northam had to do in the words of Deng Xiaoping "bide our time, be good at maintaining a low profile, and never claim leadership". Northam did that in a media cycle that was much slower so why can't Burr do the same?

Northam may well have survived because his heir and his spare had scandals around the same time period; the resignation of all three would have put a Republican in power, so partisanship insulated him in the short term. Then, African-Americans carried the VA Democrats to victory in 2019 (the party didn't seem to be particularly hindered by Northam's earlier scandal at that point), so much of the Democratic electability case for booting him out died.

Burr might not want to brave political controversy if he intends to go into business soon anyway (he announced his retirement from the Senate in 2022 well before this scandal broke). There is no 'heir and a spare' issue protecting him, but McConnell may want him to hold the Seat until 2022 because it will be easier to defend in what will probably be a Democratic midterm. Getting convicted wouldn't automatically disbar him from the Senate (except in the case of treason), but he wouldn't be able to vote from prison and a supermajority of Senators could remove him (IIRC those who could remove Northam were the very same people who were mired in their own controversies).

Trump might not see much downside to putting another NC Senator up considering that he probably needs to win NC anyway, and could perhaps do with a stronger ally than Burr (who could also be controversial within the Republican base depending on what the investigation brings to light). I think the most likely compromise is that they get him to resign within 60 days (or after) the election, so that they can appoint an incumbent ready for 2022 without risking the loss of the seat.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump isnt Hilary and he isnt gonna be reelected and Tillis is suffering from the problems of Burr

[Lognog]

Not Tillis related, but Congress insider trading inquiry looks 'particularly damning' for Senator Burr, expert says.

At what point is Burr's resignation too late for a special election to be held in November? Possible Mitch is seeing the way the winds are blowing with Cunningham/Tillis and is having Burr hold out.

The election law they've published online says a special election for US Senator will occur at the next election for the NC General Assembly (which is up in 2020), provided that election day is more than 60 days after the original vacancy occurred (so, at the latest, he'd have to leave on Sept. 3).

What's stopping him from doing what Ralph Northam did in the wake of his blackface scandal?

I get that a lot of Republicans in congress and popular figures on the right have called for him to step down, but a lot of prominent democrats called for Ralph Northam to resign too. All northam had to do in the words of Deng Xiaoping "bide our time, be good at maintaining a low profile, and never claim leadership". Northam did that in a media cycle that was much slower so why can't Burr do the same?

Northam may well have survived because his heir and his spare had scandals around the same time period; the resignation of all three would have put a Republican in power, so partisanship insulated him in the short term. Then, African-Americans carried the VA Democrats to victory in 2019 (the party didn't seem to be particularly hindered by Northam's earlier scandal at that point), so much of the Democratic electability case for booting him out died.

Burr might not want to brave political controversy if he intends to go into business soon anyway (he announced his retirement from the Senate in 2022 well before this scandal broke). There is no 'heir and a spare' issue protecting him, but McConnell may want him to hold the Seat until 2022 because it will be easier to defend in what will probably be a Democratic midterm. Getting convicted wouldn't automatically disbar him from the Senate (except in the case of treason), but he wouldn't be able to vote from prison and a supermajority of Senators could remove him (IIRC those who could remove Northam were the very same people who were mired in their own controversies).

Trump might not see much downside to putting another NC Senator up considering that he probably needs to win NC anyway, and could perhaps do with a stronger ally than Burr (who could also be controversial within the Republican base depending on what the investigation brings to light). I think the most likely compromise is that they get him to resign within 60 days (or after) the election, so that they can appoint an incumbent ready for 2022 without risking the loss of the seat.

I agree with almost all of that accept that 2022 is shaping up to most likely be a Republican year, adding incentive for the compromise you mentioned

[Epaminondas]

I agree with almost all of that accept that 2022 is shaping up to most likely be a Republican year

Nothing indicates this so far.
Do you say this based on anything tangible?

[Brittain33]

I agree with almost all of that accept that 2022 is shaping up to most likely be a Republican year

Nothing indicates this so far.
Do you say this based on anything tangible?

Based on 2010 and 1994 and the certainty the economy will still have high unemployment even if recovering.

[Lognog]

I agree with almost all of that accept that 2022 is shaping up to most likely be a Republican year

Nothing indicates this so far.
Do you say this based on anything tangible?

Based on 2010 and 1994 and the certainty the economy will still have high unemployment even if recovering.

This.

Joe Biden is clearly up in the polls, especially where it matters.

The economy will not at all recover in two years from this so you have a Dem president with a terrible economy. I don't think thats great news for democrats.

[SnowLabrador]

I agree with almost all of that accept that 2022 is shaping up to most likely be a Republican year

Nothing indicates this so far.
Do you say this based on anything tangible?

Based on 2010 and 1994 and the certainty the economy will still have high unemployment even if recovering.

This.

Joe Biden is clearly up in the polls, especially where it matters.

The economy will not at all recover in two years from this so you have a Dem president with a terrible economy. I don't think thats great news for democrats.

And then Biden proceeds to lose in 2024, or just retire and be replaced by Tom Cotton.