I mean, McCain will almost certainly win, it's a townhall format. If Obama flubs, it might be worth a couple points, but then the next debate is a format that Obama does better at.
Since the candidates won't be able to choose their own questions, they are extremely limited in being able to make decisive destruction of their opponent. The questions are almost certainly be more folksy in nature than what a moderator would write.
We'll see. I have noticed, just on anecdotal evidence, that Obama seems to do better in debates where he's standing, as opposed to debates where he's sitting (at least in the primaries/Saddleback too). Therefore, all this might run counter to your conventional wisdom.
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