Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[DINGO Joe]

Another busy, busy day of blowing stuff up.

[DINGO Joe]

https://www.tweaktown.com/news/88015/ukraine-may-be-forced-onto-an-ammo-diet-says-us-military-analyst/index.html

"Ukraine may be forced onto an 'ammo diet' says US military analyst"

It seems there are signs that military aid to Ukraine might start to decline making it harder for Ukraine to maintain current ammo burn.

Link from "tweektown" which provides link to Russian Times with no link to Der Spiegel

[DINGO Joe]

https://www.tweaktown.com/news/88015/ukraine-may-be-forced-onto-an-ammo-diet-says-us-military-analyst/index.html

"Ukraine may be forced onto an 'ammo diet' says US military analyst"

It seems there are signs that military aid to Ukraine might start to decline making it harder for Ukraine to maintain current ammo burn.

https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/us-militaerexperte-michael-kofman-die-ukraine-steht-vor-einem-dilemma-a-bf8d606b-38e7-4e98-acbe-d37e6a7c019c

This seems to be the Der Spiegel interview but it is behind a paywall

Link from "tweektown" which provides link to Russian Times with no link to Der Spiegel

Yeah, I found that all on my own, but ain't paying to listen to it.  It's probably just a reworking of a War on the Rocks podcast he did last month--where he provides conjecture on a wide range of scenarios.  Kofman was one of those analysts who got the war way wrong and gets kicked by twitter whenever he pops off.  I don't see any twitter outrage over this so it's likely a propaganda sham.   

[DINGO Joe]

Another busy, busy day of blowing stuff up.

So, anyway the marquee explosion were big ammo depots in

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1560088806921015296

and

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1560348503968186370

Of course, the last one being in Russia.

[DINGO Joe]

This is in Luhansk

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1560304828622012417

stakhanov

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1560306504527405060

and maybe a second one in Belgorod

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1560353028451999744

There was a video of something in NW Crimea burning but I haven't see any follow up, plus claims that Russian air defense has been activated in Sevastopol and Kerch, but who knows if real or imagined by Rascists.

[DINGO Joe]

Alexander Dugin's daughter has died in an apparent car bomb. The bomb might have been meant for Dugin, as they had been at the same event prior to it. In any case, the daughter seems to have shared his father's ideology.

According to preliminary reports the target was Dugin himself but he had left the car with an associate when it blew up. Dugin's daughter was a fascist who relentlessly promoted her father's fascist and genocidal ideology so no tears will be shed here.

She’s been in hell for a day now. An eternity minus one day is still an eternity!

If we want to believe the Russian narrative, this is a huge embarrassment for the Russian security services. This happened in Moscow, not in the Donbass like the 2018 cafe bombing assassination of "DPR" leader and "Prime Minister" Oleksandr Zarchenko.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1561137226838417408?s=20&t=VbLvdmnf...

"What's currently known about the death of Alexander Dugin's daughter, Daria Dugina:

▪️ The head of the "DNR" has already blamed "terrorists of the Ukrainian regime."

▪️ Dugina was returning from a literary and musical festival in her father's car, but he took a different car at the last minute for some reason.

▪️ Born in 1992, Dugina worked as her dad's press secretary, wrote about politics under a pseudonym for the pro-Kremlin outlets RT and Tsargrad, coauthored an upcoming book called "Z Books," and was added to the UK's sanctions list in July."

I'm cool with promoting the idea that the all powerful Ukrainian underground is able to do something like this, but I wonder who really did this as Dugin is supposedly extremely tight with Putin.

[DINGO Joe]

Alexander Dugin's daughter has died in an apparent car bomb. The bomb might have been meant for Dugin, as they had been at the same event prior to it. In any case, the daughter seems to have shared his father's ideology.

According to preliminary reports the target was Dugin himself but he had left the car with an associate when it blew up. Dugin's daughter was a fascist who relentlessly promoted her father's fascist and genocidal ideology so no tears will be shed here.

She’s been in hell for a day now. An eternity minus one day is still an eternity!

If we want to believe the Russian narrative, this is a huge embarrassment for the Russian security services. This happened in Moscow, not in the Donbass like the 2018 cafe bombing assassination of "DPR" leader and "Prime Minister" Oleksandr Zarchenko.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1561137226838417408?s=20&t=VbLvdmnf...

"What's currently known about the death of Alexander Dugin's daughter, Daria Dugina:

▪️ The head of the "DNR" has already blamed "terrorists of the Ukrainian regime."

▪️ Dugina was returning from a literary and musical festival in her father's car, but he took a different car at the last minute for some reason.

▪️ Born in 1992, Dugina worked as her dad's press secretary, wrote about politics under a pseudonym for the pro-Kremlin outlets RT and Tsargrad, coauthored an upcoming book called "Z Books," and was added to the UK's sanctions list in July."

I'm cool with promoting the idea that the all powerful Ukrainian underground is able to do something like this, but I wonder who really did this as Dugin is supposedly extremely tight with Putin.

Putin said he wanted denazification.

And I guess it's wrong to say Dugin is tight with Putin, when he's useful he's useful, when he's not he's not.  Darya did like to travel to Western Europe and supposedly was used to funnel money to Euronazis and maybe too little got there.  Russian government mafia is always rather violent.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1561463453012971522?s=20&t=UDuJHy...

They'll need to be careful not to hit the actual dam, I'd imagine. Could a GMLRS salvo cause it to burst - and if so, how many would any resultant flood endanger?

Well, they're close to the Black Sea and the river in question is historically shallow with several rapids, so the dam is really about keeping the river navigable for some distance upstream.  So, it's probably not a threat to inhabited areas but maybe to some industrial wharf type areas.

[DINGO Joe]

A never before heard of group of Russian dissidents calling themselves the "National Republican Army" has claimed credit for the Dugin assassination.  This seems to have convinced everyone that it was a FSB hit.

[DINGO Joe]

A never before heard of group of Russian dissidents calling themselves the "National Republican Army" has claimed credit for the Dugin assassination.  This seems to have convinced everyone that it was a FSB hit.

Car bombs are way more typical of actual partisans or terrorists than of the FSB. There are a million ways the FSB could have vanished Dugin or Dugina that wouldn't have made them and the entire regime look totally inept.  Putin is trying to act like everything under control, his supporters getting blown to smitheroons in Moscow completely undermines his appearance of strength.

Most likely it's a lone wolf or small cell looking for attention (since Dugin is both well known to the West and Ukrainians while being far enough from power to be unprotected), possibly with some sort of support from the SBU. Another possibility is that the "NRA" is an SBU front entirely.

Based on what I've read today, the odds of who killed Dugina

70% FSB
20% Dugin himself
5% NRA
4.95% Ukraine
0.05% Inhuman Transhumanists

[DINGO Joe]

A never before heard of group of Russian dissidents calling themselves the "National Republican Army" has claimed credit for the Dugin assassination.  This seems to have convinced everyone that it was a FSB hit.

Car bombs are way more typical of actual partisans or terrorists than of the FSB. There are a million ways the FSB could have vanished Dugin or Dugina that wouldn't have made them and the entire regime look totally inept.  Putin is trying to act like everything under control, his supporters getting blown to smitheroons in Moscow completely undermines his appearance of strength.

Most likely it's a lone wolf or small cell looking for attention (since Dugin is both well known to the West and Ukrainians while being far enough from power to be unprotected), possibly with some sort of support from the SBU. Another possibility is that the "NRA" is an SBU front entirely.

Based on what I've read today, the odds of who killed Dugina

70% FSB
20% Dugin himself
5% NRA
4.95% Ukraine
0.05% Inhuman Transhumanists

So Dugin might have in fact actually sought to arrange a martyrdom for himself?

No, for his daughter

https://mobile.twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1561334515490082817

[DINGO Joe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1561666285041336324

[DINGO Joe]

Personally, it seems like the war is out of the news cycle, and people are growing numb to it. This is a very bad sign for Western unity, and it shows that World War III is getting more likely (since Russia is now more likely to win the war and then start invading other countries.)

Oh. If they begin the WW3, we will end it, believe me! Russia will not only lose its identity, it would be as if Russia never existed at all.

I think that Russia, China, Iran, and the other Axis of Resistance members combined could easily defeat the US and NATO in a hypothetical World War 3. Such a war would probably last about 3 months at the most. Human wave attacks (Iran), irregular warfare techniques (Russia and the Axis of Resistance members), and very large numbers of military troops (China and Iran) can take down even the most technologically advanced military forces.

This would have been a dumb take six months ago. At this point it's gone right round and is practically art.

Does answer the question, "What could possibly be worse than a SnowLabrador take?"

[DINGO Joe]

So, that fast working FSB has identified the Dugina assassin

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1561733431469424645

A Ukrainian who is a card carrying member of Azov who drove around Moscow in a Mini-Cooper and has since fled to Estonia with her 12 year old daughter (or possible midget assassin)

So, it's got it all--Ukraine, Azov, British, Estonians.  Still won't be convinced until FSB produces the Sims cards and Hitler portrait.

[DINGO Joe]

Not a great day to be a collaborator:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1563160607603318784?s=20&t=UMORY_...

Video of another collaborator meeting his fate

https://twitter.com/justartsndstuff/status/1563165675476369408

Props to the dude who was smoking on the front steps and took one more drag before heading in

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1563188524324573185

As a means of raising funds, you can rename equipment in Ukraine or have a message written on an outgoing shell, hence the "Superbonker 9000" complete with meme character.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1564531464527544320


Maybe there's a collaborator convention in Russia but the appointed head of Kherson is doing his "there's nothing to worry about" speeches from 1000 mi away.

[DINGO Joe]

Between work and my war addiction my sleep habits have been utterly shot.  And now the Queen is about to pass. 

[DINGO Joe]

Hello

https://mobile.twitter.com/LvivJournal/status/1567974442856513536

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1568216432072073217

Actually, the latest map shows things deteriorating around Izium even faster.

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1568195486485446657

This guy is supposed to be the commander of the Taman Division in Izium.  He chose to leave with the wounded.  The post above calls him a Dick! Not a man.

[DINGO Joe]

Well if the NYT is plugged in, it seems that the plan is for Ukraine to grab the entire red blob. If Kherson was a feint, it was certainly well executed, with everyone except those in the know fooled.

Kherson is definitely not a feint.  It's a battle of attrition to isolate a large army from resupply.  It's just that the Ukrainians had the resources and plan to pull this off too. 

[DINGO Joe]

TOP SECRET UKRAINIAN PLAN FOR THE KHARKIV OFFENSIVE FOUND ON A DONATED GERMAN PZH 2000

I've actually seen folks on twitter calling this "Operation Frederbonk"  cuz you know, the internet,

[DINGO Joe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TarmoJuntunen/status/1568227635641331713

Cool

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1568267855870758917

Cut the city in half. Prevents any reinforcements (if any exist) and protects their flank as they encircle Izium.

[DINGO Joe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1568282616373059586