GA-Monmouth: Tied (user search)
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  GA-Monmouth: Tied (search mode)
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Author Topic: GA-Monmouth: Tied  (Read 2209 times)
Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,407
United States


« on: July 29, 2020, 10:45:06 AM »

This poll topline just don't add up to me. Women and men each vote for Biden and Trump by equal margins (and more women vote than men, especially in the south), yet it comes out as a tie. Biden's also winning 96% of democrats and independents 53/31. He is matching Abrams with blacks and improving on her margin by 8 points with whites.
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Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,407
United States


« Reply #1 on: July 29, 2020, 11:11:53 AM »

"Likely Voters, Low Turnout" sounds like a COVID-19 electorate, no? 
Considering how motivated people are to vote according to this very poll and widespread access to mail in ballots, not necessarily.
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Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,407
United States


« Reply #2 on: July 29, 2020, 11:23:17 AM »

"Likely Voters, Low Turnout" sounds like a COVID-19 electorate, no? 
You wish. The election is not going to be low turnout.

Trump is also +1 in the LV, high turnout scenario.

The election is less than 100 days away.  Why are we still getting RV polls? 
They are providing LV turnout models too, so I dont see the issue? And by the way, the RV poll actually has Biden up 47.4/46.6 if you calculate it according to the crosstabs. That would essentially mean a tied race among high Turnout LV's, without factoring in what appears to be an undersampling of democrats in this poll.
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