North Macedonia elections and politics (presidential & legislative elections May 8 2024)

[Storr]

"Journalists fear North Macedonia’s new media law"

"Journalists are accusing North Macedonia’s ruling party and opposition of banding together to restrict press freedom, ahead of an election in the Balkan country.

The country’s parliament in February approved changes to the law with the support of 78 out of 120 lawmakers, lifting the ban on government and municipal advertising on the TV and radio, which President Stevo Pendarovski signed into law in March.

The same Social Democrat government had originally abolished state advertising in 2017.

Macedonians are heading to the polls for the first round of presidential elections on Wednesday, followed by a second round on May 8."

[MRCVzla]

First round of the President election was held today, if the turnout did not reach more than 50% (and it happened), a second round will be held in two weeks on May 8th among the Parliamentary election, diaspora can only vote at Presidential election, because they have not reach certain threshold to hold Parliamentary elections there (less than 3,000 voters are registered, they needed more than 5,000 to at least elect 3 more seats among the 120 seats divided in six 20-seat multi-member consituencies)

Preliminary results with more than 53% of the precincts counted:
Gordana Siljanovska Davkova (VMRO-DPMNE and allies) 37.1%
Stevo Pendarovski (SDSM and allies, incumbent) 18.3%
Bujar Osmani (DUI/European Front alliance) 16.3%
Arben Taravari (AA/VLEN alliance) 12.1%
Maksim Dimitrievski (ZNAM) 7.9%
Biljana Vankovska Cvetkovska (Levica) 4.4%
Stevcho Jakimovski (GROM and allies) 1.0%

Election results: https://rezultati.sec.mk/en/pres/r

[Storr]

68.99% of precincts counted:

Siljanovska Davkova: 38.88%
Pendarovski: 19.04%
Osmani: 14.76%
Taravari: 10.67%
Dimitrievski: 8.35%
Vankovska Cvetkovska: 4.52%
Jakimovski: 0.89%

[Storr]

83.12% of precincts counted:

Siljanovska Davkova: 40.05%
Pendarovski: 19.55%
Osmani: 14.17%
Taravari: 10.01%
Dimitrievski: 8.47%
Vankovska Cvetkovska: 4.28%
Jakimovski: 0.71%

[Storr]

99.03% of precincts counted:

Siljanovska Davkova: 40.09%
Pendarovski: 19.93%
Osmani: 13.36%
Dimitrievski: 9.26%
Taravari: 9.21%
Vankovska Cvetkovska: 4.55%
Jakimovski: 0.90%

[Duke of York]

Is it fair to say Siljanovska Davkova is favored in the runoff?

[Storr]

Is it fair to say Siljanovska Davkova is favored in the runoff?

Yes. A March second round poll had Siljanovska Davkova: 55.8% Pendarovski: 44.2%

Meanwhile: "The Democratic Union for Integration, which represents ethnic Albanians and is led by former Foreign Minister Bujar Osmani, offered its support in the second round to any candidate who supports having the President selected by the Assembly of North Macedonia in future elections, in the hopes of having an ethnic Albanian attaining the office. However, both Pendarovski and Siljanovska-Davkova have dismissed the proposal, saying it is democratic for the Presidency to be selected through direct voting."

[Duke of York]

Is it fair to say Siljanovska Davkova is favored in the runoff?

Yes. A March second round poll had Siljanovska Davkova: 55.8% Pendarovski: 44.2%

Meanwhile: "The Democratic Union for Integration, which represents ethnic Albanians and is led by former Foreign Minister Bujar Osmani, offered its support in the second round to any candidate who supports having the President selected by the Assembly of North Macedonia in future elections, in the hopes of having an ethnic Albanian attaining the office. However, both Pendarovski and Siljanovska-Davkova have dismissed the proposal, saying it is democratic for the Presidency to be selected through direct voting."

I have to agree. I think Presidents should be directly elected even if the position is largely ceremonial.

[Beagle]

VMRO-DPMNE are already crowing about a landslide win, certainly in the presidential, but also in the parliamentary election.

It seems that the last minute SDSM instruction to abstain from voting in the presidential election didn't reach enough people in time. Holding turnout below the 40% required by the constitution would have meant a re-do, but even with not all of the precincts reporting, the number of voters in the presidential election has reached 46% (with some 54% voting for parliament). Gordana Siljanovska is as good as elected.

For parliament, it is too early to say for sure, but VMRO-DPMNE are on track for a majority and SDSM may fall to historic lows.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What's the reason for this? I guess the current SDSM government is extremely unpopular.

Pretty unfortunate considering that VMRO-DPMNE went in the last decade from your standard Eastern European economic liberal center-right party to a nationalist pro-Putin horror show...

[Duke of York]

VMRO-DPMNE are already crowing about a landslide win, certainly in the presidential, but also in the parliamentary election.

It seems that the last minute SDSM instruction to abstain from voting in the presidential election didn't reach enough people in time. Holding turnout below the 40% required by the constitution would have meant a re-do, but even with not all of the precincts reporting, the number of voters in the presidential election has reached 46% (with some 54% voting for parliament). Gordana Siljanovska is as good as elected.

For parliament, it is too early to say for sure, but VMRO-DPMNE are on track for a majority and SDSM may fall to historic lows.

What good does telling people not to vote do?

[Beagle]

Holy cats, this is a massacre. With 60% of the vote in (with the Albanian bloc overrepresented, but not by a whole lot):

VMRO-DPMNE-led coalition - 40,04%
DUI-led Albanian coalition - 16.59%
SDSM-led coalition - 13.61%
AA/Besa/Alternative Albanian coalition - 13.60%
Levica (Putinist far-left) - 6.56%
Znam (SDSM splinter) - 4.88%

All signs pointed to a VMRO-DPMNE win, but by 10% or so, not by a 3 to 1 margin. Voter fatigue with the hapless SDSM administration can only do so much. To all extents and purposes, this shuts down the prospect of 'the French proposal' path to EU membership for (North) Macedonia and the changes in the constitution, which were planned for later this year. This can also mean the end of the Prespa agreements, as VMRO-DPMNE now have the mandate they requested to renegotiate the treaty and revert the country name to (Plain) Macedonia, even if VMRO-DPMNE do not have enough votes to form a government on their own (back of the envelope math suggest that they are on track for at least 55/120). All in all, this is a marked defeat for the pro-European forces in the country.

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

Levica (Putinist far-left) - 6.56%

Wth?

[Beagle]

Levica (Putinist far-left) - 6.56%

Wth?

What? The "only parliamentary party in North Macedonia that has openly aligned itself with Russia over the war in Ukraine", and parrots the "down with liberal fascism, EU, NATO, Israel and Soros" line can be described as Putinist, no?

Anyway, with about 8% of the vote outstanding, but with the seat totals unchanging for the past three updates, so at most plus or minus one seat, the final results seem to be:

VMRO-DPMNE-led coalition - 43% - 59 seats (+15)
SDSM-led coalition - 15% - 19 seats (-27) !
DUI-led Albanian coalition - 14% - 18 seats (+2)
AA/Besa/Alternative Albanian coalition - 11% - 13 seats (+1)
Levica (Putinist far-left) - 7% - 6 seats (+4)
Znam (SDSM splinter) - 5% - 5 seats (new)

Due to various Albanian parties changing allegiances, the movement in seats isn't precise, but w/e. Basically VMRO-DPMNE has a completely free choice who to rule with. And, since I left it unsaid in my previous post, a lot of their win is down to their anti-Bulgarian rhetoric. At least they will get their chance to rename the country to Regular or Garden-variety Macedonia soon.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

VMRO-DPMNE are already crowing about a landslide win, certainly in the presidential, but also in the parliamentary election.

It seems that the last minute SDSM instruction to abstain from voting in the presidential election didn't reach enough people in time. Holding turnout below the 40% required by the constitution would have meant a re-do, but even with not all of the precincts reporting, the number of voters in the presidential election has reached 46% (with some 54% voting for parliament). Gordana Siljanovska is as good as elected.

For parliament, it is too early to say for sure, but VMRO-DPMNE are on track for a majority and SDSM may fall to historic lows.

What good does telling people not to vote do?

the election is invalid if turnout goes below 40%.

[Duke of York]

VMRO-DPMNE are already crowing about a landslide win, certainly in the presidential, but also in the parliamentary election.

It seems that the last minute SDSM instruction to abstain from voting in the presidential election didn't reach enough people in time. Holding turnout below the 40% required by the constitution would have meant a re-do, but even with not all of the precincts reporting, the number of voters in the presidential election has reached 46% (with some 54% voting for parliament). Gordana Siljanovska is as good as elected.

For parliament, it is too early to say for sure, but VMRO-DPMNE are on track for a majority and SDSM may fall to historic lows.

What good does telling people not to vote do?

the election is invalid if turnout goes below 40%.

and even if it was wouldn't it be reheld with the same candidates?

[Logical]

The Aleksandar Makedonski LARP will resume.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

VMRO-DPMNE are already crowing about a landslide win, certainly in the presidential, but also in the parliamentary election.

It seems that the last minute SDSM instruction to abstain from voting in the presidential election didn't reach enough people in time. Holding turnout below the 40% required by the constitution would have meant a re-do, but even with not all of the precincts reporting, the number of voters in the presidential election has reached 46% (with some 54% voting for parliament). Gordana Siljanovska is as good as elected.

For parliament, it is too early to say for sure, but VMRO-DPMNE are on track for a majority and SDSM may fall to historic lows.

What good does telling people not to vote do?

the election is invalid if turnout goes below 40%.

and even if it was wouldn't it be reheld with the same candidates?

yeah, but if you're certain you'll lose, I suppose it makes sense to try and get some more time to turn that around.