MS-S/NBC-Marist: Hyde-Smith in the lead, wins Runoff

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Mississippi is gonna Mississippi.

I hope this ends some people's delusion that somehow ruby red and racially polarized Mississippi was going to elect a Black Democrat.

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This has some serious AL-SEN 2017 potential in the runoff, especially if Republicans stay home, so don’t count your chickens before they are hatched. AL was also considered "inelastic" before Jones won, and pretty much nobody thought Hogan would be able to win in a landslide because of Maryland's "inelasticity", so "inelastic" is a term just as nebulous/meaningless as "candidate quality".

AL was exceptional because of Roy Moore and his unique scandals. As long as Cindy Hyde-Smith doesn't turn out to have a similarly murky past, she will be fine.

The enthusiasm gap/turnout differential played a key role as well, and Democrats have a much higher floor in MS than AL. I’m not saying she’ll lose, but she’s not Romney-level safe.

Nope. Cindy Hyde-Smith will win easily.

Mississippi is ruby red and racially polarized just like Alabama. Cindy Hyde-Smith is NOT Roy Moore.