LA-06-SurveyUSA: Cazayoux favored in special election

[Brittain33]

They did (at least mostly). And might have done so more enthusiastically if Jenkins hadn't come quite so close to winning on the first round, ie if they had had any hope of stopping Jenkins.

I wonder how much Jenkins' ownership of a newspaper affected people's willingness to disagree with him.

[Brittain33]

Gilda Reed lost 22%-75%!  Is LA-1 the most Republican District in the country?

Ha! I hate to find myself in the position of upsetting people on my team, but I got in a fight with a Kossack who considered it a "slap in the face" the DCCC wasn't funding Reed the way they funded Childers after he started putting up big vote totals, and when I responded that the district was just not winnable, both that guy and Gilda Reed personally responded to tell me I didn't know what I was talking about. Awkward.

Did you know LA-1 has more registered Democrats than Republicans? Wow, it's totally ripe for takeover. I blame Rahm!!

[Brittain33]

The fact that elections in November will be a *general* election rather than a *special* election seems to be the major wall.  This part seems to be largely escaping you.

A good point. The NRCC won't have the resources to help out in every seat in November the way they have been able to in most special elections so far, while the DCCC will.

[Brittain33]

Here is a blogger from LA talking about the rumor of Jackson running as an independent:
http://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/2008/05/cazayoux-win-gains-short-lease-on.html .

Anyone who talks about "the Democrat plantation" for African-American voters and politicians is tipping his hand a little too far, IMO. I'm talking about the blogger, not anyone cited.

[Brittain33]

while the DCCC will.

Is it possible to bogart acid?

Yeah, I edited it from "every seat" to "most seats" but didn't save it.

As for the acid, though, the news from two weeks ago:

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When the DCCC has $35 million more COH right now than the Republicans, and the recent news only making Tom Cole's job harder, it's simply a fact that the NRCC won't be able to go toe-to-toe with the Democrats in every competitive district the way they have in OH-5, IL-14, LA-6, and MS-1. They won't even be able to go 50% against the Democrats. There will be a lot of contestable seats in the general election the NRCC will sit out for lack of funding while the Democrats will be able to top up spending for our candidates.

Jim Oberweis and Woody Jenkins weren't competing with 50 other ROMPer/STOMPers (or whatever else the Republicans are calling their recruits these days) for money.