Lean D. Totally underrated opportunity here. This district was Trump +4, so it votes almost identical to the three competitive Iowa districts everyone thinks are toss-ups, but this is Likely or Safe D? As Jeb! once said, give me a break.
All the seats (save IA-02) in Iowa were within single digits. Kind won by almost 20 points. Likely D is the most GOP-friendly this seat will be for a while unless Kind retires or 2022 is a DEM midterm.
The problem is if we go by the margin of the last election then almost none of the 43 pickups (3 seats flipped Republican) Democrats got should've even been close, because many were 20+ point R wins and most were 10+ R wins in 2016. In a presidential election, where Trump will
at least barely lose this district, there is a stronger relationship between House and presidential voting than the margin of the last House election, relatively. Case in point, districts that swung massively Republican from 2012 to 2016 (OH-06, PA-17, MI-05 to list a few) at the presidential level also swung Republican from 2014 despite Republicans doing several points worse in 2016. In 2018, there is an even stronger case, as suburban D-trending districts voted much closer to Trump's margin than the 2016 house number. That is why I'm certain this district will be closer than the 20 point margin it was last time, even with a similar D+8 national margin.
Poll
