AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[The Mikado]

FWIW I don't think she runs again and if she does she loses 70-30 in the primary. She's totally unwilling to adjust her strategy and she bet on Mark Kelly and Katie Hobbs losing so she could say "I'm the only one who can win in AZ." Kelly winning by like 4.9 and Hobbs winning statewide against a candidate the GOP hailed as super strong makes it clear Dems don't need whatever she's doing to win in AZ.

Sinema has shown literally zero inclination to trim her sails or change course. She did this stuff straight for four years and has burned a lot of institutional bridges already, and she has zero constituency in AZ. The DSCC and Biden would sit on the sidelines, which alone is enough to doom her at this point.

[The Mikado]

I'm at a hardcore show now so I'll say more when I get home/sober up but one thing I think is being underdiscussed is who exactly is Sinema going to get her campaign funds from? Corporate PACs aren't enough and probably won't even be interested, they like to back winners. Maybe she can get some hoping to keep influence for the rest of her current Senate term but those can only go so far with fundraising limits. And who is going to go doorknock for her?

People have no idea what they're talking about on financing campaigns anymore. You're absolutely right. People think "big money" is, well, big. It really, really isn't, in the age of ActBlue etc. It's wild how many people haven't noticed Dems outraising/outspending Rs basically everywhere ever in 2018, 2020, and 2022...and Indies have it much worse than Rs. Gallego will likely outraise her 5X or more every quarter, and the R will be way ahead of her as well. There is no ActBlue or WinRed for an independent candidate.

And you mentioned doorknocking, but, like I said in the other thread, she needs 42k signatures to get on the ballot. She'll need to pay signature gatherers, and they are expensive. No volunteers will touch this.

I think if she tries she PROBABLY gets on the ballot, but it's FAR from a sure thing.

[The Mikado]

Woman walks on stage, carrying a gasoline canister and a pack of matches.

Audience member A: Holy s**t, she's gonna light herself on fire!
Audience member B: There's still three hours left in her act, don't hurry her, we don't know where she's going with this.

Woman on stage starts juggling gasoline can, spraying gasoline everywhere on the stage, including small amounts on herself.

Audience Member A: Holy s**t, she's gonna light herself on fire! The entire stage will burn down!
Audience Member B: You're rushing to conclusions! We don't know where she's going with this! She's got hours to turn this around.

Woman on stage puts tip of gasoline canister to her lips, drinking the remaining gasoline.

Audience Member A: Holy s**t, not only is she gonna light herself on fire, she's gonna poison herself too! That is toxic!
Audience Member B: She has a plan, I'm sure of it! We're just not smart enough to see where this act is going yet.

Woman on stage grabs matchbook, placing an unlit match in her teeth.

Audience Member A: Holy s**t, we're ALL GONNA DIE! THIS CRAZY LADY WILL KILL US ALL!
Audience Member B: You worry too much, things like this always work their way out.

Woman on stage begins unsuccessfully trying to ignite match, striking it again and again. A spark seems inevitable...

I was saying this over a year ago, btw. This woman will never change. This is who she is. People kept saying that she'd reverse course and be OK in a primary, but she was never going to do that. That's simply not who she is.

[The Mikado]

If she even gets the signatures to get on the ballot (something a lot of people are overlooking but which is NOT EASY given she can only count signatures from registered Independents), her campaign's just gonna steadily fade like most Indy candidates do closer to the election. She maybe gets 7-8% in the end?

[The Mikado]

If she even gets the signatures to get on the ballot (something a lot of people are overlooking but which is NOT EASY given she can only count signatures from registered Independents), her campaign's just gonna steadily fade like most Indy candidates do closer to the election. She maybe gets 7-8% in the end?

Yeah, at this rate she will definitely get under 10%, and tbh I would not be surprised if it ends up under 5%.

If the real race (D vs R) is close, there are just not that many voters who will want to waste their vote on a 3rd party candidate who is far behind and has 0 chance to actually win. Most voters want their vote to count towards determining the actual winner. That is why independent/3rd party candidates always underperform polling.

Yup. As I said above, too, I'm very skeptical about her signature gathering skills. Signature gathering is either done through idealistic volunteers who have no idea how much money they're not making doing an arduous, thankless job for free...or by professional signature gatherers who cost a fortune because people don't do that work cheap. Sinema's going to be massively outraised by both Ds and Rs (people who always talk about shadowy big money don't get how much the picture's changed...I'd be shocked if both Gallego and the R outraise Sinema by multiples every quarter once this starts. ActBlue and WinRed >>>>>>> big donors every time and have for nearly a decade now). Sinema's gonna need to blow a massive chunk of her campaign budget on paid signature gatherers and even then it's not guaranteed to work.

42k valid signatures from registered Independents only? You need to check every single person who is interested in signing to make sure they're not actually a D or R and forgot about it (lots of people don't remember their registration off the top of their heads!).

[The Mikado]

Honestly,
I don't want to do some wish talking but I wouldn't be surprised if Sinema self sabotages herself like "oh I didn't get the number of signatures needed!"

It's going to mirror the presidential election I guess

I don't think "sabotage" is even necessary. 42k signatures from Indies only with approximately no one willing to volunteer is a really high bar. A lot of people don't know what party they're registered with so you'll get a lot of false positives so you need WAY WAY more than 42k signatures.

[The Mikado]

It may not be, but a possible upcoming Senate run announcement?

https://twitter.com/karilake/status/1616570669881491458?s=46&t=-3KKfAt0D2cLO...

What's her NFT collection gonna be like? Any predictions? I'm thinking "Kari Lake as Governor" will be the most valuable one, because it's never ever gonna happen in real life.

[The Mikado]

Curious how much Gallego raised 1st day, has got to be quite a bit.

He said "over a million," which is a lot for a day one Senate candidate. We'll find out after Q1 ends how MUCH more than a million, though.

[The Mikado]

Gallego $3.1M in Q2

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1679483395624017920

Sinema 1.7M in Q2.

People have this bizarre fake cynicism where they say big donors are everything and decide everything when just about every time a small donor campaign outraises a big donor one, often by large margins. It's this weird hangover from the pre-ActBlue days.

[The Mikado]

It feels like 2024 is going to be the same recruitment failure for Republicans as was 2022. The map actually puts them in a decent position to regain the senate majority, even if Biden wins reelection. It would be beyond hilarious if they blow it due to terrible candidates.

They can have a total debacle of a Senate cycle and still pick up the Senate. Manchin's seat is effectively gone and with that, really R seats like Montana or Ohio (not and, or) are all the Rs need to get to 51-49. Now granted, 51-49 would be a huge letdown for Rs who as recently as a year ago were saying that by 2025 they'd have 60 Senate seats. But it'd still put the GOP in the Majority.

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1713010589029793853

Not a great quarter for an incumbent senator in a marquee race. The COH number is good but I think most of that was raised before she went independent.

I think she's more than likely to retire and live off her leftover campaign cash or start some foundation to keep her relevant. COH is not really that impressive when you figure she is not getting any super PAC helping her out. Both sides spent like $50M each last year in AZ.

If she's going to retire, why did she file to run for reelection?

The only person with the answer to that is the woman herself. I have maintained for a long time now that she is trying to suck money out of Very Serious People so she has something to live off of before she ends up flogging her inevitable book on Fox News and then starts crying about the 'lack of civility' in politics.

Candidates can't just keep the money in their campaign treasuries for personal use.

[The Mikado]

Gallego raised 3.3m and Lake 2.1m, by contrast. No way Sinema runs at this point IMO. Gets less likely every day.

[The Mikado]

Gallego wins this easily if so, but she won't do that (because she knows that).

[The Mikado]

So has everyone come to terms with Sinema not running or are some of you still in denial and think she does?

[The Mikado]

Sinema/Phillips No Labels incoming

While I expect Sinema to just retire from politics and get some cushy private sector/lobbying job, I also wouldn’t at all be surprised if this No Labels ticket happens.

I would be because there’s no way it’s going to be two Democrats.

Yeah, but Sinema technically isn’t a Democrat anymore. She’s an Independent! But I get your point, No Labels probably would want a Republican (or Republican leaning independent) on the ticket.

Not even probably, they've said their ticket if it happens will be one D one R.

[The Mikado]

Out of curiosity, since the state legislature was mentioned above, both its chambers have even numbers of seats and a 30-30 House or a 15-15 Senate seems realistic outcomes. What does AZ do for ties?

[The Mikado]

Reread the first five or six pages of this thread any time you need a reminder of who here has a good idea of what's going on.

[The Mikado]

In Q1 2024:

Lake raised 4.1 million, has 2.5 million on hand
Gallego raised 7.5 million, has 9.6 million on hand

https://www.axios.com/2024/04/14/kari-lake-fundraising-arizona-senate

[The Mikado]

Why is Donald Trump saying this now and not in early 2023, after everyone in the Republican Party except maybe Kari Lake and Abe Hamadeh recovers from the Great Midterm Crisis?

Knowing how petty Trump is, underrated possibility this is literally just down to him being upset that Kari Lake is a permanent houseguest at Mar A Lago and just wishing she'd leave already.