If Trump pulls a miracle win in 2020, what will be the most commonly cited reason in hindsight?

[kwabbit]

I think people are underrating the possibility of a 'shy' COVID backlash vote. There is a difference between people's stated preferred COVID policy and their actual behavior, and perhaps in a ballot booth they just decide " It" and choose Trump instead of Biden if it means less COVID lockdowns. Not that this is likely, but I think a COVID lockdown backlash is more likely than a backlash against the BLM protests.

Either way, I think the media will just blame it on the polls. Although maybe this time they'll actually listen to the polls if they indicate tightening instead of pretending it was mid-October still.