The TrumpCare comes back from the dead (...and lives!) thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

It would really be incredible if we have another spectacle in which the GOP house leadership scrambles for votes, only to end up failing.  At that point, I wonder, would they finally give up?

Perhaps I'm insufficiently Machiavellian, but I don't understand why they keep doing this.  It's a lose-lose.  If they keep pushing something that can't even pass their own party, they look inept.  If they somehow passed this bill, it would hurt so many people that the GOP would get killed in the midterms.

If they really want to change health care, why don't they take the time to craft a better plan?  Yes, it would be difficult, but complex problems generally don't have simple solutions.  It took the Democrats a long time and a great deal of work to pass Obamacare in the first place.  Do the Republicans really expect it to take less time and effort to come up with a reasonable replacement?

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's going to be hysterical if this goes to the floor and loses 215-216.  Although I think that would be a better outcome for the Republicans than it passing.

IMO the rank of possible outcomes, from best to worst for the GOP, would be:

1. No House vote.
2. Fails in House.
3. Passes House, fails in Senate.
4. Passes both, Trump vetoes (unlikely).
5. Bill becomes law.

Thoughts?

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's going to be hysterical if this goes to the floor and loses 215-216.  Although I think that would be a better outcome for the Republicans than it passing.

IMO the rank of possible outcomes, from best to worst for the GOP, would be:

1. No House vote.
2. Fails in House.
3. Passes House, fails in Senate.
4. Passes both, Trump vetoes (unlikely).
5. Bill becomes law.

Thoughts?

There's another option.  A bill passes both houses, but the House and Senate can't reconcile their two bills.  Anyway, I agree that the longer the process goes on, the worse it is for Republicans.

You're right, I didn't think of that one.  And it's not all that unlikely.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So when will get a CBO report? Next week?

I saw one estimate that it would take 2 weeks.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Unpopular Opinion:

I like Nancy Pelosi.

she is SUPER effective.

like ....even more unpopular opinion....turtleneck ( R - KY)

Pelosi is a great tactician but a lousy messager.  Ryan is just the opposite.  If someone could combine their strong points, they'd have a leader who could get anything done.

[GeorgiaModerate]

lol, Trump just said this bill is great, the Senate will make it even better, and Australia's healthcare is even better than the GOP bill they have!!!!!!!!!!!!

Isn't Australia single-payer?

Yeah, or something close to it.

They do have single-payer (called Medicare, amusingly enough) that coexists with private insurance that can be used to help cover out-of-pocket costs not covered by Medicare.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So who out of these five Republican Senators is least likely to vote for this bill?

1. Alexander
2. Collins
3. Murkowski
4. Portman
5. Heller

Least to most likely:

1. Murkowski
2. Collins
3. Portman
4. Heller
5. Alexander

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Senate will draft a much, much better bill. 

Lowest bar ever.

[GeorgiaModerate]

HuffPo/YouGov poll on the new AHCA: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ahca-health-care-poll_us_59109a87e4b0e7021e99b049?64h

31% Favor
44% Oppose
25% Unsure

The previous version was 24/45/31 on March 17, and 21/52/27 on March 27.

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Q poll shows 21/56 approval for the current version of the AHCA: https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2457

Lots more in the poll, including Trump's proposed tax plan.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Anti-abortion provisions in tax credits may not allow AHCA to be considered under reconciliation:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

This anti-AHCA ad...wow.  https://twitter.com/jonfavs/status/872919311052029952