UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[AustralianSwingVoter]

“Ryanair CEO Will ‘Happily’ Offer Rwanda Deportation Flights” is an incredible headline.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

No comment

https://twitter.com/staylorish/status/1783863816045937078

[CumbrianLefty]

Well he probably didn't but that's not really an excuse.

[Torrain]

Weekend a bit quieter, but a little movement:

• A group of SNP MPs (who've declined to be named) have pointed the finger at Stephen Flynn. He's getting the blame from some, but he seems to be coming out better than Yousaf - "Flynn has bounced the First Minister into this. It’s his party now.”
• Yousaf, speaking in Cupar, has refused to say whether he'd resign if the informal VONC is successful, and refused to rule out an election.
• Alba has convened an emergency weekend meeting of their National Executive Committee to rule whether to back Yousaf.

And, looking to the future:

• Forbes' weekly column in the National is a bromide about working with other parties in the spirit of 2007-11, and stressing her own 'success' working with the Greens while Finance Sec, stressing her willingness to work with them in the future. The Greens, worried she's on maneuveurs, have said they only worked with her out of respect for Nicola Sturgeon.
• Education Secretary Jenny Gilruth is also said to be positioning herself, per reporting in the Times, and New Statesman this weekend, which tallies with reporting about her reaching out to Sturgeon to consult on strategy earlier in the month. Raises the prospect of Kezia Dugdale moving into Bute House - not a sentence I thought I'd ever be typing!

[Cassius]

Another Tory MP has defected to Labour.

[YL]

Another Tory MP has defected to Labour.

Dan Poulter, MP for Central Suffolk & North Ipswich. Or, rather, Dr Dan Poulter, as that appears to be related to his reasoning: Observer article explaining it

[Torrain]

Poulter was a health minister under Cameron, and is still standing down at the election so he’s a more credible/damaging defector than Wakeford, if we’re drawing comparisons.

Quite a coup for Starmer, and Streeting - who seems to have taken credit. When even Tory MPs are attacking the state of the NHS, with May 2nd just around the corner, it’s just a dire look for the gov.

Sunak's on the pre-locals media round tomorrow, which does make the timing feel rather precise.

[JimJamUK]

Poulter was a health minister under Cameron, and is still standing down at the election so he’s a more credible/damaging defector than Wakeford, if we’re drawing comparisons.

Quite a coup for Starmer, and Streeting - who seems to have taken credit. When even Tory MPs are attacking the state of the NHS, with May 2nd just around the corner, it’s just a dire look for the gov.

Sunak's on the pre-locals media round tomorrow, which does make the timing feel rather precise.

Poulter has previously expressed support for pay rises during NHS strikes a couple of times, but otherwise didn’t seem especially moderate or outspoken to the degree that a defection looked likely. Then again, Wakeford wasn’t either.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Poulter has previously expressed support for pay rises during NHS strikes a couple of times, but otherwise didn’t seem especially moderate or outspoken to the degree that a defection looked likely. Then again, Wakeford wasn’t either.

That's the exact profile of someone who needs to be watched as a possible jumper, or at least would be under any half-decent whipping operation. Someone who sounds off a lot generally won't go, or at least won't go to a major party.* Someone who quietly mutters opposition to the government stance on a major issue...

_{*This is why during the second half of the New Labour government Labour whips cheerfully spread false rumours about MPs who would never defect to the Conservatives (Frank Field was a favourite. He would never, could never, have done it, but often criticized government policy from a socially conservative direction, and was thus perfect) whenever there were indications that others might.}

[JimJamUK]

Alba are demanding the SNP stand aside in multiple Holyrood seats if they are to support Yousaf as first minister. Given Alba only have 1 incumbent by defection, and presumably don’t want no-hoper seats, this would mean the SNP surrendering constituencies they have incumbent MSPs in. I’m sure fellow posters can guess how likely the SNP are to agree to such a demand.

[YL]

Alba are demanding the SNP stand aside in multiple Holyrood seats if they are to support Yousaf as first minister. Given Alba only have 1 incumbent by defection, and presumably don’t want no-hoper seats, this would mean the SNP surrendering constituencies they have incumbent MSPs in. I’m sure fellow posters can guess how likely the SNP are to agree to such a demand.

Indeed Alba have never had anybody elected to anything. Given that there have been STV local elections in every council in Scotland as well as an AMS Scottish Parliament election since they were formed, this is quite impressive in a way.

[Torrain]

Alba are demanding the SNP stand aside in multiple Holyrood seats if they are to support Yousaf as first minister.

Salmond knows how the SNP works, both culturally, and its constitution - it's not just a bad-faith offer, it's the political equivalent of throwing a stick of dynamite at Yousaf and yelling "catch". Even though Alba are on life support, and could be finished by this, he just can't resist.

He'll be on the BBC Sunday show tomorrow morning. Let's see if he's any more measured then. If he doubles down on this line, then he's essentially just telling Yousaf to resign and get it over with.

[Oryxslayer]

Alba are demanding the SNP stand aside in multiple Holyrood seats if they are to support Yousaf as first minister.

Salmond knows how the SNP works, both culturally, and its constitution - it's not just a bad-faith offer, it's the political equivalent of throwing a stick of dynamite at Yousaf and yelling "catch". Even though Alba are on life support, and could be finished by this, he just can't resist.

He'll be on the BBC Sunday show tomorrow morning. Let's see if he's any more measured then. If he doubles down on this line, then he's essentially just telling Yousaf to resign and get it over with.

Yousaf has already categorically rejected Salmond's "offer." So he can either make another overture tomorrow or  tell him to GTFO.

[Torrain]

Yousaf has already categorically rejected Salmond's "offer." So he can either make another overture tomorrow or  tell him to GTFO.

Aye - it’s what he had to do.

Salmond is now denying the electoral pact was offered, and is making rather woolier proposals about an independence convention and health/education policy as the red lines. He waffles a bit about the Alba NEC preparing for an election, but it sounds a bit like bluster.

There does seem to be a path here to get Yousaf through the vote, if Regan is willing to negotiate. Whether he can then make it through the following weeks and months seems less plausible.

[JimJamUK]

On Laura Kuenssberg’s Sunday show, Alex Salmond claimed polling is predicting Alba will get 20 seats in the next Scottish Parliament election. Given actual polling has them on 2-3% on the list vote (aka 0-1 seats), I’m rather sceptical.

[Torrain]

It's worth noting, that while VONCs can be survived with a 64-64 tie, the same principles of staus-quo-maintenance would prevent the presiding officer from providing an affirmative vote on any new legislation - meaning confidence and supply will still be absent. 

Budgets would be a particular issue, given the looming spectre of further cuts. The 2024-25 budget is going to be a pain in the neck for any SNP FM to pass, but an intractable nightmare for Yousaf if he somehow survives this week, the Westminster election, and six months of wrangling with the centre-right faction of his own party.

Other developments from today:

• Labour will continue with their VONC in the Government, even if Yousaf falls on his sword before the vote.
• Lib Dems join the other unionist parties in sending written replies to Yousaf rejecting talks and calling for his immediate resignation.
• Fergus Ewing has said he'll vote for Yousaf this week, but expects him to be gone by the end of the summer, and will withdraw support if insufficient progress is made on issues like the A96 dualling.
• Some of Alba's most strenous opponents sit at Westminster, and we've had some very pointed opposition to any sort of deal with Salmond from Glasgow South's Stewart McDonald, and Perthshire's Pete Wishart.
• Michelle Thomson has issued a very unconvincing denial that her close ally Kate Forbes is ringing MSPs to gauge support for a leadership challenge.

One of the real oddities of the day, has been Salmond doing a full media round, bragging about how Ash Regan is now "the most powerful MSP in Holyrood", but refusing to share any of the airtime with her. I know she's gaffe-prone, but it's crap look for Salmond *of all people* to not let the woman speak on her own behalf.

[CumbrianLefty]

On Laura Kuenssberg’s Sunday show, Alex Salmond claimed polling is predicting Alba will get 20 seats in the next Scottish Parliament election. Given actual polling has them on 2-3% on the list vote (aka 0-1 seats), I’m rather sceptical.

Of course if LK was any use, she would have asked him for a citation supporting this dubious claim.

[JimJamUK]

On Laura Kuenssberg’s Sunday show, Alex Salmond claimed polling is predicting Alba will get 20 seats in the next Scottish Parliament election. Given actual polling has them on 2-3% on the list vote (aka 0-1 seats), I’m rather sceptical.

Of course if LK was any use, she would have asked him for a citation supporting this dubious claim.

He was referencing supposed polling showing him getting 15% as preferred first minister, but seemed to jump from that to confidently getting 20 seats.

[Torrain]

Per the Times, Humza Yousaf will resign on Monday morning.

[Estrella]

1. You’re unpopular
2. Break a promise
3. Break an agreement
4. ??​??
5. Profit

[Logical]

Bad year to be an European leader with Desi roots. Costa, Varadkar, Yousaf, and eventually Sunak will be out. Perhaps it's a sign that Khan might lose in a shocker?

[Torrain]

SNP confirm Yousaf is giving a press conference in Bute House at noon.

Putative caretaker FM John Swinney is in London - despite the news breaking last night, and being invited to cabinet meetings over the past week to drum up support. Hiding from being drafted? Or meeting the Westminster group to gauge support?

If Yousaf resigns with immediate effect, he will have outlasted Henry McLeish, Scotland's shortest serving FM by only 6 days, and survived for a shorter period than 8/10 Scottish Labour leaders... which is quite some feat.

Edit: Swinney's not ruling out running, and sounds like Kate Forbes may not go for it - could be a coronation...

[afleitch]

The leadership was always Swinney's if he wants it. There was disappointment when he didn't run last year and perhaps some personal regret in him for not doing so given how acrimonious it was.

Likely to see a Green abstention allowing the government to continue.

[Torrain]

The Scottish Tories announcing they’d work with Kate Forbes is some excellent pot-stirring.

While Labour would love the chance to run against her, I’m sure there are a few Aberdeenshire Tories nervous about what she’d do to their majorities. Another SNP heavyweight they’re cheerfully pushing under the bus.

[Torrain]

Yousaf has resigned as SNP leader. Will remain a backbencher in parliament.

His intention is to stay on until a successor is elected - so confidence votes may still go ahead.