FL, MN, NV - Civiqs/DailyKos: Biden +4, +10, +9

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

There's an orthodoxy based on the 2010s elections that Florida is invariably razor-thin regardless of the national environment. But Obama won it by 3 in 2008 and, before that, Dubya won it by 5 in 2004, so clearly it is capable of producing low-to-mid-single-digit results. It just hasn't done so in the last few cycles.