Quebec: April 7, 2014

[DL]

My guess is he won't do much talking. PQ is aiming for the CAQ vote and ignoring QS.

True. CAQ collapse is key to winning a majority. I don't see much hemorrhaging to the QS over this. QS wont be winning anything outside the island, and I can't see them picking up more than 2 seats there (if any).

Yes but its not a question of QS winning seats in its own right - what if QS candidates in swing ridings off island get 10% of the vote instead of 4-5%? that could create vote splits that hand seats to the PLQ. Also, before we get carried away about what a CAQ collapse means - let's bear in mind that CAQ has already lost between a third and a half of its votes from 2012 - and those losses appear to have split evenly between the PQ and the PLQ. Polls indicate that the remaining CAQ voters are about three times more likely to have the Liberals as their second choice than the PQ - so I don't think we should assume that a CAQ meltdown helps the PQ - its also notable that CAQ voters tend to overwhelmingly be NO voters in a hypothetical referendum

[Hatman 🍁]

So, no regional breaks? Grrr.

[MaxQue]

So, no regional breaks? Grrr.

The article seems to imply there is regional breaks in the poll, but those aren't in the article.

[Hatman 🍁]

So, no regional breaks? Grrr.

The article seems to imply there is regional breaks in the poll, but those aren't in the article.

Yes, I noticed that. People keep telling me "but, look at the francophone numbers", well, OK, that's all find and dandy, but that doesn't do anything for translating into seats.

[RogueBeaver]

Paradis is running again, unsurprisingly.

[Hatman 🍁]

Despite the lack of regional data (at least publicly released), I distributed the CROP poll proportionally into each of the regions based on the other polls' regional breaks. My current projection shows (change is from my projection on Friday):

PQ: 65 (-1)
PLQ: 53 (-1)
CAQ: 5 (+2)
QS: 2 (n/c)

[RogueBeaver]

SPQ-Libre's reaction to the idea of a pro-RTW leader is rather predictable. Realistically, at most a return to Levesque's second term on the labour front in said scenario.

More electoral math.

Marois wants more tourists.

[Poirot]

A Quebec city area poll shows the PLQ opening a 7 point lead. Don't have the exact numbers, results will be made public tomorrow.

I don't know if it's Péladeau's entrance and greater fear of a referendum, a continuation of the anti-PQ campaign by radio stations, or the mayor speaking against CAQ not wanting to finance an indoor skating oval and other projects.

I imagine province wide PLQ could be in the lead in voting intentions with a result like this.

[MaxQue]

A Quebec city area poll shows the PLQ opening a 7 point lead. Don't have the exact numbers, results will be made public tomorrow.

I don't know if it's Péladeau's entrance and greater fear of a referendum, a continuation of the anti-PQ campaign by radio stations, or the mayor speaking against CAQ not wanting to finance an indoor skating oval and other projects.

I imagine province wide PLQ could be in the lead in voting intentions with a result like this.

The Forum poll having a Liberal Quebec-wide lead of 2 had a 22 point lead in Quebec City Area, while the Léger one (with a Quebec-wide PQ lead of 2) had a Liberal lead of 1 in Quebec City. So, a lead of 7 in Quebec City isn't surprising.

[DL]

I may be a voice in the wilderness but i still think that the Peladeau gambit will backfire and for several reasons:

1. A sliver of leftwing PQ voters disgusted by the fact that Peladeau is a rightwing fanatic will shift to Quebec Solidaire...it may not give QS any additional seats but just a couple of percentage points here and there can cost the PQ some marginal seats.

2. By making such a ringing speech in favour of complete independence for Quebec and so much media speculation on another referendum - all of a sudden the election is no longer about the charter, its no longer about the economy. Its now all about "do you want another referendum?" and "Do you want Quebec to become and independent country?"...this is very dangerous ground for the PQ - they cannot win an election just with the votes of out and out separatists. The CAQ party voters are according to polls over 80% NON voters in a hypothetical referendum and are also way more likely to have the Liberals as tbheir second choice than the PQ...if the election is all about sovereignty i think the CAQ vote will meltdown and go mostly to the Liberals.

These two ingredients could add up to a PLQ win. You heard it here.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are the Quebec City poll numbers (change from their last poll)

PLQ: 39 (+7)
PQ: 32 (+1)
CAQ: 19 (-5)
QS: 7 (-1)
PVQ: 1 (-1)
ON: 1 (-1)
Oth: 1 (n/c)

Total sample: 643

[Poirot]

I was typing the Quebec city Léger poll (too late). Here is the link.

http://www.fm93.com/regional/nouvelles/sondage-exclusif-les-liberaux-en-avance-de-7-dans--306020.html

[RogueBeaver]

The PQ's candidate in Gouin is an insane fanatical secularist: baptism and circumcision are rape, kosher food is a rabbinic scam which finances Jewish and Muslim military operations, girls should be forbidden from wearing veils to school.

[Hatman 🍁]

Trying to out do the QS?

[RogueBeaver]

Another PQ candidate has been fired, this one for posting an Islamophobic message on FB and supporting Panzergirl.


Speaking of Islam, Marois said that "there is a risk of Islamic fundamentalist infiltration." This is worse than '07 ever was, IMO.

[Zanas]

The PQ's candidate in Gouin is an insane fanatical secularist: baptism and circumcision are rape, kosher food is a rabbinic scam which finances Jewish and Muslim military operations, girls should be forbidden from wearing veils to school.

Of course circumcision, like excision, is objectively a sexual mutilation that is comparable to rape or torture.

[Hatman 🍁]

Wouldn't call it rape, genital mutilation, sure.

Anyways, here is my week 2 projection map: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/03/2014-quebec-provincial-election-week-2.html

I have Couillard ahead in Roberval. Am I crazy?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No, not a racist party at all.

[You kip if you want to...]

Is it possible to be a nationalist and not be racist?

[RogueBeaver]

Is it possible to be a nationalist and not be racist?

Absolutely.

[Hash]

Is it possible to be a nationalist and not be racist?

Please quit trolling.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Considering that the PQ's reputation for being maybe just a little bit racist has clearly damaged it electorally over the years (even if it hasn't cost votes directly, it sure helps to drive up minority turnout for the PLQ), it's weird that they don't seem to have done anything to address it. Of course that's partly because... you know... but you'd think they would at least have learned to be a bit more... presentable.

[RogueBeaver]

So PKP blowback continues, and Marois literally had to push him aside at a presser today. I can only imagine his reaction. She must wish the Legislative Council was still around... would've made a Cabinet appointment much easier.

[RogueBeaver]

In GIF form.

[Poirot]

1. A sliver of leftwing PQ voters disgusted by the fact that Peladeau is a rightwing fanatic will shift to Quebec Solidaire...it may not give QS any additional seats but just a couple of percentage points here and there can cost the PQ some marginal seats.

2. By making such a ringing speech in favour of complete independence for Quebec and so much media speculation on another referendum - all of a sudden the election is no longer about the charter, its no longer about the economy. Its now all about "do you want another referendum?" and "Do you want Quebec to become and independent country?"...this is very dangerous ground for the PQ - they cannot win an election just with the votes of out and out separatists. The CAQ party voters are according to polls over 80% NON voters in a hypothetical referendum and are also way more likely to have the Liberals as tbheir second choice than the PQ...if the election is all about sovereignty i think the CAQ vote will meltdown and go mostly to the Liberals.

These two ingredients could add up to a PLQ win. You heard it here.

1. perhaps an additional seat with Sainte-Marie Saint-Jacques. It was probably QS next target anyway. Radio-Canada and TVA are in the riding so there could be some media workers unhappy with PKP's presence. At city level Projet Montréal did well here.

2. I think I will tune out. It has become a debate on if Péladeau should sell his company's shares and a possible future referendum. I don't know if it will last three weeks. Usually the PLQ plays the referendum threat card in the last week of campaign. Supposedly issues important to people are economy and health care.