Spanish elections and politics

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Also he appeals to the !Spain of the balconies", referring to people putting Spanish flags in their balconies during the worst phase of the crisis in Catalonia.

Can confirm this is still a thing, and I guess this is a real driver of votes. Sort of interesting that this is a political base.

[Republican Left]

What do you think about the Cs or Ciudades, do you think they're be able to be major gains? Additionally can the PP recover from this? In respect to PM Sanchez, is it his to loses?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I think the Cs performance depends on whether Santamaria or Cospedal wins the leadership election, with the former likely to take many of their votes.

[Republican Left]

By the way, how's the quest to take away gun rights? Any thoughts on London's knife control?

[Velasco]

I think the Cs performance depends on whether Santamaria or Cospedal wins the leadership election, with the former likely to take many of their votes.

Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría is possibly the right choice for PP. Among the three top candidates in the leadership contest, Santamaría would be the most competitive candidate in a general election. The former Deputy PM was the member of the Rajoy government with the best approval rates beating María Dolores de Cospedal in every age group and ideological niche (centre-right to far-right), according to the last CIS survey. Also, she is the most popular among those who left PP for Cs. Given that she is perceived as more "liberal" and with a greater degree of "openness" than Cospedal, she's the best choice to regain voters from Cs.

However, I don't think that Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría is the favourite in this race. The outcome of this leadership election is fairly unpredictable, especially when PP lacks of democratic traditions and never held this kind of elections before. As former PP secretary general, Cospedal has a better knowledge of the party and its structures. Apparently the regions of Madrid, Castilla-La Mancha and Catalonia would go fr Cospedal. Santamaría has a base of support in regions like Andalusia, Castilla y León or the Basque Country (and maybe Valencia).

Galicia is a big question because premier Alberto Núñez Feijoó (previously the big favourite) is not endorsing anyone in the first round, in which party members registered to vote will choose between the six candidates and elect the delegates for the party convention. In case that no candidate gets a majority in the first round, the two top candidates will pass to the second round in which only delegates are eligible to vote. Then Feijoó will say which candidate supports and will ask Galician delegates to vote as a block. I've read that he would never support Santamaría.

On the other hand, Pablo Casado must be taken into account. Casado is a young conservative that appeals to generational replacement and party0s unity, "as well as Spanish nationalism or "family values". He has the support of much of the PP's "New Generations" (youth branch) and the supporters of José María Aznar and Esperanza Aguirre. In case that Casado qualifies as one of the two top candidates for the second round, his victory is very likely. Delegates supporting Sntamaría or Cospedal would vote for him and against the other woman.

Casado and others have stated concern at the low numbers of members registered to vote. PP has nominally more than 800k members, but this figure is unreal. Membership census hasn't been updated in a long time; possibly there are dead people and members who left in the census roll. Only 66k (less tan 8%) have registered and are eligible to vote. Turnout will be lower than that figure. It's a big failure for the PP.

EDIT: Journalist Eruardo Inda (scum, sensationalist hack) says that according to some internal polling Pablo Casado is ahead, followers by Cospedal and Santamaria. Maybe Inda is intoxicating but the man has good contacts in the PP and in the underworld. Aside from that, my insight (maybe incorrect or baseless) is that Casado could win this.

Current opinion polling is placing PSOE in first place, with the exception of the Sociométrica poll released by El Español (editor Pedro J Ramírez likes Rivera)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Spanish_general_election

[TheSaint250]

Is the PNV/EAJ pro-Basque independence or more of a "Basque interests" party?

[Former President tack50]

Is the PNV/EAJ pro-Basque independence or more of a "Basque interests" party?

Simultaneously both and neither at the same time. A big and somewhat hilarious example is that the same day they signed the budget deal with Rajoy's government in Madrid, they also signed a declaration in favour of the right to decide with Bildu back in the Basque Country.

It really depends. I think their position on independence is something like "would be nice but now is not the time". They are clearly in favour of the right to decide (ie a referendum) though I don't think they would actively push for independence unless they felt threatened or something.

It also depens on who is in charge of PNV. Right now Urkullu is a moderate, but former leader Ibarretxe was a lot more pro-independence, actively pushing for the Basque Country to become a "free associated state". That was defeated in the Spanish Congress by a landslide margin: 29-313, with only Basque/Catalan/Galician nationalists voting in favour; IU splitting between abstaining and no; and everyone else voting no.

In fact up until the Catalan conflict, the Ibarretxe plan was the strongest pro-independence challenge in Spain, though it went nowhere near as far (Ibarretxe never dared to disobey court orders like Mas and Puigdemont for example)

[Mike88]

Casado and others have stated concern at the low numbers of members registered to vote. PP has nominally more than 800k members, but this figure is unreal. Membership census hasn't been updated in a long time; possibly there are dead people and members who left in the census roll. Only 66k (less tan 8%) have registered and are eligible to vote. Turnout will be lower than that figure. It's a big failure for the PP.

Yikes!! That's real, real bad. It becomes worse if you compare with the PP's sister party in Portugal, the PSD. In this year leadership elections, 70,000 PSD members, out of 120,000 active members, were registered to vote, although only 43,000 voted.

[ON Progressive]

Casado and others have stated concern at the low numbers of members registered to vote. PP has nominally more than 800k members, but this figure is unreal. Membership census hasn't been updated in a long time; possibly there are dead people and members who left in the census roll. Only 66k (less tan 8%) have registered and are eligible to vote. Turnout will be lower than that figure. It's a big failure for the PP.

Oh my, that's hideous. I compared this to the 2017 NDP leadership election for a perspective, and Canada's third largest party had nearly the exact same number of VOTERS (and that's with 52% turnout, the NDP has over 124k members) as Spain's largest party.

[Oryxslayer]

Sounds like the PP election is going to effectively be like a US style Caucus or Labour's leadership election, where only the most committed and partisan are voting members. Never a good recipe for picking a nationally electable candidate.

[Tintrlvr]

Is the PNV/EAJ pro-Basque independence or more of a "Basque interests" party?

Simultaneously both and neither at the same time. A big and somewhat hilarious example is that the same day they signed the budget deal with Rajoy's government in Madrid, they also signed a declaration in favour of the right to decide with Bildu back in the Basque Country.

It really depends. I think their position on independence is something like "would be nice but now is not the time". They are clearly in favour of the right to decide (ie a referendum) though I don't think they would actively push for independence unless they felt threatened or something.

It also depens on who is in charge of PNV. Right now Urkullu is a moderate, but former leader Ibarretxe was a lot more pro-independence, actively pushing for the Basque Country to become a "free associated state". That was defeated in the Spanish Congress by a landslide margin: 29-313, with only Basque/Catalan/Galician nationalists voting in favour; IU splitting between abstaining and no; and everyone else voting no.

In fact up until the Catalan conflict, the Ibarretxe plan was the strongest pro-independence challenge in Spain, though it went nowhere near as far (Ibarretxe never dared to disobey court orders like Mas and Puigdemont for example)

In other words, they're CDC before it became a pro-independence party.

[Velasco]

Yikes!! That's real, real bad. It becomes worse if you compare with the PP's sister party in Portugal, the PSD. In this year leadership elections, 70,000 PSD members, out of 120,000 active members, were registered to vote, although only 43,000 voted.

Oh my, that's hideous. I compared this to the 2017 NDP leadership election for a perspective, and Canada's third largest party had nearly the exact same number of VOTERS (and that's with 52% turnout, the NDP has over 124k members) as Spain's largest party.

Sometimes comparisons are odious (I mean the ccomparisons you make are terrible for the PP). The 870k membership figure is unreal. Some PP officials claim that figure includes activists and mere supporters, but possibly it also includes dead people or people who joined one day and dissapeared. The main reason for not updting the membership census is that regions send delegaes to the party convention according to the size of their membership (75%) and election results (25%).

Even with a more realistic census, this 66k figure is really poor. More comparisons:

2018 PP leadership contest: 66384 enrolled to vote out of 869535 members (7.6%)

2017 PSOE leadership contest:  149051 out of 187715 turned out to vote (79.8%)

2017 Podemos convention (Vistalegre II): 155275 members voted online (34.5%)

[Velasco]

Is the PNV/EAJ pro-Basque independence or more of a "Basque interests" party?

Simultaneously both and neither at the same time. A big and somewhat hilarious example is that the same day they signed the budget deal with Rajoy's government in Madrid, they also signed a declaration in favour of the right to decide with Bildu back in the Basque Country.

It really depends. I think their position on independence is something like "would be nice but now is not the time". They are clearly in favour of the right to decide (ie a referendum) though I don't think they would actively push for independence unless they felt threatened or something.

It also depens on who is in charge of PNV. Right now Urkullu is a moderate, but former leader Ibarretxe was a lot more pro-independence, actively pushing for the Basque Country to become a "free associated state". That was defeated in the Spanish Congress by a landslide margin: 29-313, with only Basque/Catalan/Galician nationalists voting in favour; IU splitting between abstaining and no; and everyone else voting no.

In fact up until the Catalan conflict, the Ibarretxe plan was the strongest pro-independence challenge in Spain, though it went nowhere near as far (Ibarretxe never dared to disobey court orders like Mas and Puigdemont for example)

The leader of PNV is not lehendakari (premier) Íñigo Urkullu, it's the chairman of the Euzkadi Buru Batzar (EBB) Andoni Ortúzar. EBB is the National Executive Committee and it has branches in every territory of the Greater Basque Country, also known as Euskal Herria. Territories are the three Basque provinces (Álava/Araba, Bizkaia and Gipuzkoa), Navarre (Nafarroa) and the French Basque Country (Iparralde). Urkullu himself was chairman of the PNV between 2008 and 2012, replacing Josu Jon Imaz. He left party leadership in order to run for lehendakari.

One of the main singularities of the PNV is that there's a strict separation of powers between the party organization and the Basque government, which PNV holds since 1980 (except for the 2009-2012 period). The EBB makes strategic decisions. The lehendakari and the members of the government implement the party's policies and are in charge of management.

Even though the party is very calm nowadays, there have been tensions between the lehendakari and the EBB chairman in the past. Differences between PNV chairman Xavier Arzalluz and lehendakari Carlos Garaikoetxea led to a split and the establishment of Eusko Alkartasuna (EA), a rival nationalist party currently integrated in EH Bildu. The relationship between chairman Josu Jon Imaz (a moderate) and lehemdakari José Ibarretxe (pro-sovereignty) was uneasy.

The short answer is that PNV is clearly a Basque Interests party, but it has two souls.

There is a more nationalistic faction (pro-sovereignty or pro-independence) that coexists with a more pragmatic faction that advocates a gradual approach and focuses on Basque interests: strengthening self-government and protecting Basque fiscal regime.

PNV politicians are very skilled in negotiations, as well they show a rare ability to swim between the two currents (the pragmatic and the nationalist).

[Former President tack50]

About the PP leadership election, I'd say taht only 66k is an utter failure on PP's part. Remember PP claimed an 850k membership.

But even if we forget about the 850k figure, 66k is extremely small. I wouldn't consider Podemos' leadership election as comparable since joining Podemos is free and over the internet while for any of the other parties you have to pay.

But remember, PP's membership fee is only 20€ a year. Compare that to PSOE's 60€ a year or Cs' 120 € a year. So you'd expect PP's membership to be certainly larger than PSOE and especially Cs. And yet it's only 1/3 of PSOE's membership and only around 3 times that of Cs.

In fact, to get an idea, around 23k people are elected PP politicians (local councillors, MPs, etc). Which means that about 1 in 3 voters will be actual politicians.

I don't think that means a more extreme politician though. Remember that the PSOE primaries had extremely high turnout and they still elected the more "extreme" candidate (Sánchez) not the establishment one (Díaz).

In fact since 1/3 will be elected politicians, I guess that will give a small boost to establishment candidates (Santamaría, probably Cospedal) and might make things harder for the ones relying in the party base (Casado).

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

What for would one have party membership if he is not some sort of elected politician, even such as some small town mayor or county leader?

[Former President tack50]

What for would one have party membership if he is not some sort of elected politician, even such as some small town mayor or county leader?

Well, plenty of reasons. You could be someone who isn't an elected politician but wants to become one in the future. Or you could simply be a party hack and want to support your party by paying the membership dues and taking part in its internal politics.

[Former President tack50]

While polling for leadership elections is almost always extremely inaccurate, and Okdiario is a worthless pamphlet, they are the only ones who have even tried to poll the PP leadership election so here's their final poll (election is due for tomorrow). Worth noting that this a poll of PP councillors and local elected officials which are likely to votee (then again of the 1200 calls only 243 replied).



Which means Cospedal in the lead and Casado and Santamaría battling for 2nd, though it's between the margin of error for all 3. Margallo well behind.

The only other poll (this time of PP voters, so including a lot of people who won't vote in the leadership election):

Santamaría: 45,2%
Casado: 22.2%
Cospedal: 11.9%
Margallo: 6.4%
José R. Gª Hernández: 1.2%
Elio Cabanes: 0.1%

I guess one of the 3 frontrunners will be eliminated by the PP base, with the other 2 battling in the PP congress.

My own prediction is that Casado will be well ahead, with Santamaría and Cospedal battling for 2nd with Santamaría narrowly getting in 2nd place. In the PP congress all bets are off, though the larger the Casado victory, the easier it will be for him to be elected.

[Mike88]

I read that Casado is involved in a weird controversy around his master degree, that he didn't show up to classes and that it was mandatory. It seems he was tutored by the same teacher, if i'm correct, that helped Cifuentes to get her master degree.

Why would the PP members vote for someone who can be a liability in the near future? It doesn't make sense. At least Cospedal and Santamaría don't have this kind, or other legal, problems, i assume, of course.

[Velasco]

The endorsement of regional and provincial leadersis (more or less) evenly distributed between Santamaría and Cospedal, while Casado relies in the grassroots. Summary:

María Dolores de Cospedal has been the secretary general of the party and is the only candidate who is a regional leader (Castilla-La Mancha). She is endorsed by the regional leaders of Extremadura and Asturias, as well by the Madrid premier Ángel Garrido. Six provincial leaders endorse her publicly (4 from her region plus Almería and Cáceres). According to partisan sources, she has good chances in Zaragoza and Ceuta, while Jaén and Córdoba would be contested between her and Santamaría.

Galicia leader Alberto Núñez Feijoó has remained silent, but he could tip the balance in favour of Cospedal for the second round. Especially if one of the two candidates is Santamaría. 

Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría has been endorsed by the regional leader of Andalusia. The support of former ministers Alfonso Alonso and Ïñigo de la Serna could give her a base of support in the Basque Country and Cantabria. Also, she is endorsed by 10 provincial leaders (Álava, Alicante, Cádiz, Castellón, Girona, Huelva, Gipuzkoa, Málaga, Sevilla and Valencia). Partisan sources told to El País that she is the likely winner in most of Castilla y León provinces. According to the same sources, she could win Murcia, the Canaries and Melilla.

Pablo Casado has the endorsement of three provincial leaders in Catalonia (Barcelona, Tarragona and Lleida). The faction loyal to Esperanxa Aguirre in Madrid backs him, as well as nostalgics for Aznar*, so Casado has chances of winning Madrid. The Balearic Islands would be in dispute between him and Santamaría. Given his little support in the territorial organizations, his chances rely in obtaining a big support among grassroots and in the 4,800 members of the PP Youth registered to vote.

*Aznar claims that PP must undertake a refounding. He didn't endorse anyone in public, but it's clear that Casado is his preferred candidate. Former PM stated that he didn't register to vote.

I read that Casado is involved in a weird controversy around his master degree, that he didn't show up to classes and that it was mandatory. It seems he was tutored by the same teacher, if i'm correct, that helped Cifuentes to get her master degree.

Why would the PP members vote for someone who can be a liability in the near future? It doesn't make sense. At least Cospedal and Santamaría don't have this kind, or other legal, problems, i assume, of course.

Indeed, the issue f the master degree can be a burden. If PP voters were intelligent , they'd vote massively for Santamaría. She's the more capable and competitive, despite her mistakes and failures as Deputy PM. I think Cospedal would be eaten by Rivera (the Cs leader) and Casado isn't convincing (the master, his proximity to Aznar and Aguirre...)

However, who said that party grassroots are clever?

[Mike88]

I read that Casado is involved in a weird controversy around his master degree, that he didn't show up to classes and that it was mandatory. It seems he was tutored by the same teacher, if i'm correct, that helped Cifuentes to get her master degree.

Why would the PP members vote for someone who can be a liability in the near future? It doesn't make sense. At least Cospedal and Santamaría don't have this kind, or other legal, problems, i assume, of course.

Indeed, the issue f the master degree can be a burden. If PP voters were intelligent , they'd vote massively for Santamaría. She's the more capable and competitive, despite her mistakes and failures as Deputy PM. I think Cospedal would be eaten by Rivera (the Cs leader) and Casado isn't convincing (the master, his proximity to Aznar and Aguirre...)

However, who said that party grassroots are clever?

When a party is a "party of power", grassroots have to be cleaver enough to elect the most electable candidate, because the party isn't speaking just to itself, it is also speaking to the country and potential swing voters.

Now, it seems that turnout could be above 70%. Until 6:00, 65.8% of PP members cast a ballot. I've read on Electomania that Cospedal may be leading, but this could also be a way to shore up the Santamaría potential voters.

[Velasco]

Booths closed in mainland Spain. Maybe we'll have  some provisional results in acouple of hours.

Apparently Casado id winning in Madrid by a landslide. Santamaría would be winning in Andalusia, followed by Casado. At least, that's what some people is saying in La Sexta.

[Former President tack50]

According to ABC, with 44% of the vote in:

Casado: 11176
Santamaria: 8822
Cospedal: 7290

They also showed the results for the other 3, but without telling who is who. In any case, their results are 348, 355 and 72 votes. Terrible result for Margallo, especially if Joserra (who is completely unknown actually beats him or is anywhere close)

[Mike88]

42,000 votes counted:

15,971 39.9% Casado
13,604 34.0% Santamaría
10,460 26.4% Cospedal
     552   1.4% Margallo

It seems that Andalucia and Castilla La Mancha are still out. This could be good news for Santamaría and Cospedal.

[Former President tack50]

Santamaria finally wins

Santamaria: 21500
Casado: 19900
Cospedal: 15000

[Mike88]

Total final results:

21,513 37.0% Santamaría
19,967 34.4% Casado
15,090 26.0% Cospedal
     680   1.2% Margallo
     668   1.2% Hernandéz
     185   0.3% Cabanes
     202   0.4% Blank/Invalid ballots            

58,305 87.4% Turnout

Now, how will the runoff play out in the congress? Will Cospedal throw her support to Casado in order to stop Santamaría, or will there be a consensus to support the most voted candidate in the 1st round?