British States

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For incorporation of Britain into the US in my TL, i included 6 states:
Scotland, Northumbria, Merica, Wales, Wessex, and Anglia.  The idea wasn't mine though.  I saw it on a website one time, where a British citizen was proposing them himself.

Northumbria=Solid Dem, Wales=Solid Dem, Mercia=lean Dem, Scotland=Solid Dem, Anglia=lean GOP, Wessex=dunno

[Filuwaúrdjan]

After doing a little research......

What-if 2000 Election with British Isles

Existing 50 states as per OTL.

England : 84 ev
Gore (D): 48.5%
Bush (R): 35.2%
Nader (G): 13%

Wales: 7 ev
Gore (D): 48.9 %
Bush (R): 21 %
Jones (PC): 14.3%
Nader (G): 13.8%

Scotland: 12 ev
Gore (D): 47.2 %
Swinney (SNP): 20.1%
Bush (R): 15.6 %
Nader (G): 12.5%

Ulster: 6 ev
Bush (R): 51.2%
Adams (SF): 21.7%
Gore (D): 17.5%
Nader (G): 7%

Ireland: 8 ev
Gore (D): 46.6 %
Bush (R): 41.6 %
Nader (G): 8.7 %
Adams (SF): 7.4 %


Final result
Gore (D): 376 ev, 48.2%
Bush (R): 276 ev, 45.1%
Nader (G):    0  ev,  4.6 %

I came up with the figures by using the UK 2001 Gen election results. Essentially

GB
Dem: 75% of Lab vote + 90% of LD vote
GOP: Con vote
Grn: UK Grn vote + 25% of Lab vote + 10% of LD Vote

NI
Dem: 75 % of SDLP vote + 50% of NI Alliance vote
GOP: DUP vote + UUP vote + Con vote + UKUP vote
Grn: 25% of SDLP Vote + 50%  NI Alliance vote

And for Ireland I used the results of 2002 parliamentary election and I also changed 5% from GOP to Dem as FF was in Govt whilist GOP was not  :

Dem: Fine Gael + 66% Labour + 66% Progessive Democrats
GOP: Fianna Fáil
Grn: Irish Greens vote + 33% Labour + 33% Progressive Democrats

If anyone can comment on the Irish modle that would be appreciated.

Not bad... a few comments:

a) Plaid would be a lobby group (as they were originally) and would not stand a presidential candidate. I'm not sure about the SNP
b) Nader would not win 25% of Labour's vote

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Here's my guess:


Northumbria

Gore: 75%
Bush: 23%
Nader: 2%

Wales

Gore: 72%
Bush: 27%
Nader: 1%

Scotland

Gore: 60%
Bush: 34%
Nader: 6%

Mercia

Gore: 58%
Bush: 40%
Nader: 2%

Anglia

Gore: 48%
Bush: 44%
Nader: 8%

Wessex

Gore: 48%
Bush: 48%
Nader: 4%

NOTE: these are only rough guestimates

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Thanks for the feedback:

-Nader and Labour: I figured that about 1/3 to 1/2 of Labour voters would be frustrated about US Dems not being left wing enough for their tastes. Now not all of those voters would change their votes but a large portion would hence there is where I picked the 25% amount.

25% is too high... it might be that high in middle class areas... but most of Labour's support still comes from lower income/working class people...
Nader would poll very badly in Wales and Northumbria (both are coal mining areas), although he would do well in Anglia and Scotland.

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Only 5% of the U.K electorate are die-hard LibDems... but they usually win between 20 and 15%. They vary a lot all over the place...
In Wales most LibDem voters are hill farmers (except Cardiff, where they are studenty types) so I'd guess they'd break towards the Dems... The Liberal/LD strength in the South West is very complex...

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Yeah... that's about right.

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Agreed

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Lib Dems USED to be the centrist party, they have moved left and Labour have moved right, Lib Dems are now the furthest left of the three big parties.

On SOCIAL issues this is true. But not on Economics.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I was interested in this thread as I was looking to do a TL ala VP Harry on an expanded US taking in what is now termed the Anglosphere (UK, Canada, Ireland, Australia, NZ). Apparently an old political rumor had Harold Wilson contemplating the idea in the late 60's with LBJ. In Political reality it is a Non Sequiter. But it makes great Mills and Boon for Psephologists.

Anyway I wasn't too confident about the UK, I can do Australia and NZ would you guys want to add in for the British Isles part ?

Sure

[Filuwaúrdjan]

hmm, I dunno if Harold Wilson would have done that, he refused to support USA on Vietnam.

Officially

[Filuwaúrdjan]

he refused to even send a marching band in lol. He didn't want to be seen to be supporting it at all.

He was worried about a backlash

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'll extrapoliate from the 1966 and 1970 results in the U.K... Wallace is a problem... I have a book about social changes in the U.K from the '30's onwards...time to read...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Did someone say Wallace-Powell in '68 ?

Ah... yeeessss... that *is* quite likely...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

1968

1st January
Anglia, Mercia, Wessex, Northumbria, Wales, Scotland and Ulster join the United States.
The Labour and Liberal parties merge into the Democratic Party, the Conservative and Ulster Unionist parties merge into the Republican party.

2nd-15th January
M.P's from each state form State Legislatures, elect Governers, and write State Constitutions.
The Governers are:

Northumbria: Harold Wilson, D
Wales: George Thomas, D
Anglia: Edward Heath, R
Mercia: Roy Jenkins, D
Scotland: Alec Douglas-Hume, R*
Wessex: Jeremy Thorpe, D*
Ulster: Terence O'Neill, R
*=elected on split vote

28th January

Irish Taoiseach, Jack Lynch, announces that Ireland will join the United States. This is supported by opposition leader Liam Cosgrave, but bitterly opposed by many in his own Fianna Fial party. Charles Haughey (FF) leads the opposition to the Union.

29 January
The House of Representatives votes to let Ireland join the U.S

30th January
By a margin of 1 vote, the Dail votes to join the US.
The Senate votes to let Ireland join the U.S

1st February
Ireland joins the United States. The Dail reforms itself as the State of Ireland House of Delagates and chooses Jack Lynch as Ireland's first Governer.
Fianna Fial-Lynch, most of Fine Gael and the Labour Party join the Democratic Party, while Fianna Fial-Haughey and the rest of Fine Gael merge into the Republican Party.

---end of part I---

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hey Al,

Is Ireland the entire emerald isle or split into Eire and Ulster? For this exercise it might be wise to remain divided to get four Senate seat instead of two!

It'll remain partitioned as O'Neill wouldn't want to upset his base.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Isn't that Home?

I think so...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hey Al,

Is Ireland the entire emerald isle or split into Eire and Ulster? For this exercise it might be wise to remain divided to get four Senate seat instead of two!

It'll remain partitioned as O'Neill wouldn't want to upset his base.

What would you do with County Cavan, County Donegal and County Monaghan? They are a part of both Eire and Ulster, but not of Northern Ireland.

Note also that Ireland could be split into the four traditional provinces, Connacht, Munster, Ulster and Leinster. England, unfortunately, does not have such convenient divisions. The only ones that come to mind are based on the Church of England's Provinces, Canterbury (Midlands and South of the Midlands) and York (North of the Midlands).

Ireland might be split again when (er... if) Haughey gets elected Governer.
I'm not sure what to do with Cavan, Donegal and Monaghan... I'll fiddle something...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hey Al,

Is Ireland the entire emerald isle or split into Eire and Ulster? For this exercise it might be wise to remain divided to get four Senate seat instead of two!

It'll remain partitioned as O'Neill wouldn't want to upset his base.

From a previous post it looks as if the "former" UK and Ireland combine for 16 Senators. Canada would nearly match that if each province became a state and might exceed that number depending on how the Yukon and NWT might be considered. How would that sit with the "former" UK and Ireland and how might that play out in Electoral College reform?

Yeah I was thinking that the atlantic provinces become one state.

But for the purposes of this TL we are looking for a Canadian to cover the great white north just like what Al is doing for the British Isles and for that matter we could give different parts of the US to peoplw who are knowlegdable about those areas.

I'm fairly knowledgeable about Canada... but a bit sketchy with Quebec and Alberta (strange combination...)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ideas for Part Three...

1) Does RFK win the Democrat nomination?
2) Who wins in the GOP dogfight?
3) Will Wilson be chosen as the Democrat VP? (I'm thinking yes, as if RFK wins the primary, then the general and is then shot (he's a Kennedy dammit!) I could then do Wilson's sudden resignation...)
4) When does the Wallace-Powell ticket start?
5) Could someone give me a Scottish Labour politician from the '60's/70's who can knock off Home? This is important.
6) Race riots?
7) The Troubles? Or not?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There ain't a hope in hell of Scotland electing Alec Douglas Home as its Senator/Governor...okay i'll keep him on my list!!! I think its likely that by 1976 at least, we'd see a Brit on one of the major tickets in an attempt to mop up EV's. Here's my list of Scottish Governors, PS, ive iv messed up the dates of re-election ill go back to it, take it as re-election every 2 years. Makes it more fun!

1968 William Ross (D/Lab)
1970 William Ross (D)
1972 William Ross (D)
1974 George Younger (R)
1976 Bruce Millan (D)
1978 George Younger (R)
1980 Donald Dewar (D)
1982 Donald Dewar (D)
1984 Donald Dewar (D)
1988 Malcolm Rifkind (R)
1990 John Smith (D)
1992 John Smith (D) died 1994
1994 Donald Dewar (D)
1996 Alex Salmond (Ind)
1998 Alex Salmond (Ind)
2000 Alistair Darling (D)
2002 Alistair Darling (D)

2004 Race:

Alistair Darling (D)
David McLetchie (R)
Margo McDonald (Ind)
George Galloway (Ind. Anti War)

Despite a challenge from Jim Murphy, Darling remains on the Democratic ticket. His support has been eaten away by the two independent candidates with some polls giving the moderate McLetchie a small lead in a traditionally Democratic state. Kerry is polling 61% here and it looks a safe bet for the Presidential election

Hell, I'd vote for McLetchie in this one!:)

I couldn't remember the names of any other Scottish politicians from the '60's... I've assumed that the Labour M.P's split two ways, allowing Home to be chosen as Governer.
He will be defeated in the election though.
This is important (Home is needed in Congress in 1973 (ie: Yom Kippur war) to make anti-semitic remarks a Jewish congressman called Gerald Kaufman).
I'll incorperate the list into the timeline. Thanks

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Part III...

February 3rd 1968

Canadian Prime Minister, Lester B. Pearson, narrowly survives an assaination attempt by Quebec seperatists as he left Parliament Hill at 5 AM.
Pearson had initially been sceptical about the "Atlantic Plan", but changes his mind at some point in hospital.

February 4th 1968

Harold Wilson endorses Robert Kennedy's Presidential bid.
An opinion poll shows over 70% of the Canadian public is now in favour of Union with the United States of the Atlantic.

February 5th 1968

In a televised speech to the House of Commons, Pearson announces that a vote on joining the United States will by held on the February 12th.
The vote has to pass the Federal Parliament aand 2/3rd's of provincial assemblies.
The bulk of the Liberal party is in favour of the Union, the Progressive Conservative party is broadly in favour, the NDP announces that it wishes it's MP's/MLA's to abstain, Social Credit is in favour.
In Quebec, the ruling Union Nationale is strongly opposed to the Union while the opposition Liberals are strongly in favour. The leader of the newly formed Parti Québécois, René Lévesque, claims that an independent Quebec is the only answer... and when pressed by journalists on the possible union with the US, he refuses to comment.

---end of part III---

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've done a bit of editing to part III

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It depends whether or not a 2/3rd's majority of all the provincial assemblies (including Quebec) vote for it, according to the rules Pearson set up on the 5th of February.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

1) He is the absolute front runner, I only put in Connally to show that there was southern discontentment as in OTL with the Democrats.

Agreed

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I think a really, really close primary is needed... decided by one state perhaps?

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How could a pipe-puffing folksy (in public) Yorkshireman not be electable?
The Wilson resignation has to come in somewhere though... maybe RFK has to resign because of a scandel?

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How does the 3rd of June 1968 sound?

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O.K
Which area goes up in flames first? Brixton or Bermondsey?

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Good idea

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Excellent!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well when nation can't make up its mind that usually what happens. Also in 1968 there weren't too many primaries only 15 I think. So it may be decided at the convention.

Decided at the convention sounds good.

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Northumbria and Wales would probably have caucus's...
Rockefeller would do better in the British primaries than Reagan.

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Sounds good

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think a riot in Brixton trigged by the Rivers of Blood speech and/or a visit by George Wallace, which leads to a worse riot in Bermondsey.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why not all of them at the same time?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As I recall, at the time Louis Farrakhan was actually IN Brixton, wasn't he kicked out of the USA?

Hmmm... how about this (please note it's only version 1) :

Powell makes speech
              |
Wallace visits the U.K and asks if Powell will be his running mate
              |
Powell accepts
              |
Farrakhan incites a crowd to riot in Brixton
              |
Farrakhan is shot dead
              |
More riots in Brixton
              |
Wallace-Powell visit Bermondsey
              |
Riots in Bermondsey. 12 police officers killed.