NH-UNH: Sununu narrowly leads Hassan, Ayotte trails, Bolduc/Lewandowski behind by double digits

[MT Treasurer]

These are relatively poor results for Sununu/the GOP (worse than I expected) given Hassan's underwhelming favorability numbers and Sununu's sky-high approval rating. Hassan is vulnerable, but the fundamentals of the state work against the GOP here in a way they don’t (or at least do far less) in AZ/NV, which is why I don’t buy that Hassan is (especially 'by far') the most vulnerable D incumbent even if she attracts a top-tier recruit. I’m not basing this on this or any other poll (especially from UNH), but underestimating the state's strong and stubborn Democratic lean at the federal level is foolish.

[MT Treasurer]

Ah, old IndyRep is back! Glorious news! The Angry Women will never give in!

I’ve been trying hard to restrain myself since 2018 in particular, but yes, Van Ostern losing by so much more than Molly Kelly was certainly... interesting, now wasn’t it? 7% of NH women are 'undecided' in this poll, as opposed to only 3% of NH men. Will be sad to see Sununu fall behind once Hassan ramps up her misandrist dog whistling 'unlocking New Hampshire women's potential'/'protecting Granite Staters' reproductive rights' campaign.

But tell me more about how Republicans need to run fiscally responsible, 'pro-choice' Republicans like Scott Brown and Chris Sununu to appeal to middle-aged Nashua women who listen to Cyndi Lauper on vinyl and think the GOP is a misogynist hate group.

Surprisingly decent numbers for Hassan.

Maybe, just maybe, it’s because NH is a blue state and not the absurdly elastic and unpredictable swing state people are making it out to be?

[MT Treasurer]

I really do see New Hampshire ending up more like Massachusetts and Vermont in the future. It's a state that is educated, secular, and socially libertarian, not exactly where the GOP is at right now.

It’s also a state where the GOP is extremely reliant on suburban/exurban strength (and many of those areas are quite affluent and/or home to Democratic-leaning commuters and/or prone to a moderate/liberal brand of conservatism which the GOP is increasingly abandoning, at least rhetorically) along the MA border and where even the potentially R-trending parts of the state in NH-02 are some of the most culturally liberal and/or educated rural/small-town areas of New England, which means that Democrats can always count on a solid floor there (unlike in ME-02). Really the only R-trending part of the state is probably the North Country at this point, but that’s obviously nowhere near enough to counteract the bleeding elsewhere.

NH has long been an anomaly and really doesn’t fit in with the current GOP coalition, not unlike what IA used to be for Democrats. Sununu may still win this race, but the fact that he needs everything to go his way doesn’t exactly inspire confidence about the state's long-term political trajectory. I do think the Senate races in NH and IA in 2014 were signs of things to come.

[MT Treasurer]

In all fairness, while this is a discouraging poll for the GOP, it should be pointed out that UNH has consistently understated Sununu's election day strength in all of his statewide campaigns so far:

Their final poll in 2016: Van Ostern +11 (actual result: Sununu +2)
Their final poll in 2018: TIE (actual margin: Sununu +7)
Their final poll in 2020: Sununu +24 (actual margin: Sununu +32)

Their polls also show these inexplicable fluctuations, so don’t be surprised if their next survey has him ahead by 9 and the poll after that shows Hassan leading by 5, etc.

A healthy dose of skepticism and/or concern about Republican chances is definitely warranted here, but I also think Sununu has a path to narrowly overcoming the state's partisanship even in a federal race. This will require a lot of theatrics and the seat will probably only be a one-term rental, but my suspicion is that his internal numbers currently paint a slightly less bleak picture for him than this survey does (and there were rumors a month or two ago about his lead being wider in Republican internals, although those may or may not be accurate). If he steers clear of emphasizing/being baited into emphasizing hot-button social issues, doesn’t cultivate the kind of national profile that makes it easy to paint him as out of step with the electorate and beholden to the national party (think of Ayotte and her outspoken opposition to the Iran nuclear deal), and refrains from needlessly alienating the Trump base without gaining any additional D crossover votes (which he wouldn’t), he can pull it off narrowly. It’s not easy for a Republican to de-emphasize partisan affiliation in a Senate race in a blue state, but if he melds his 'compassionate conservatism' shtick with some 'no-nonsense populism' that ties Hassan to the partisan gridlock/D.C. establishment, he probably still has a path unless the environment is relatively favorable to Democrats or the state really is completely gone for the GOP (both of which are not out of the question, although I wouldn’t bet on them either).

Fundamentals/trends of the state and partisanship of blue state voters both make this a tough race for the GOP, but I’ll stick with my Tossup/Tilt R rating for now, if only because I’m betting on Sununu having sharper political instincts than Hassan and Ayotte. We’ll see what happens, though. As windjammer said, the most promising R options haven’t even announced their candidacy yet.