NH-UNH: Sununu narrowly leads Hassan, Ayotte trails, Bolduc/Lewandowski behind by double digits

[VAR]

February 18-22
1676 likely voters
MoE: 2.4%

Sununu (R) 48%
Hassan (D, inc.) 46%
Other 2%
Don’t know/undecided 5%

Hassan (D, inc.) 48%
Ayotte (R) 43%
Other 3%
Don’t know/undecided 6%

Hassan (D, inc.) 52%
Bolduc (R) 39%
Other 2%
Don’t know/undecided 7%

Hassan (D, inc.) 53%
Lewandowski (R) 34%
Other 3%
Don’t know/undecided 9%

Favorabilities:

Hassan: 42/38 (+4)
Sununu: 55/19 (+36)
Ayotte: 29/30 (-1)
Bolduc: 13/18 (-5)
Lewandowski: 16/36 (-20)

https://htv-prod-media.s3.amazonaws.com/files/unhsenatepoll-1614221938.pdf

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hassan is gonna win with these poll numbers, Sununu isn't the prohibited fav

[KaiserDave]

Not great numbers for Sununu, should show that his approval ratings aren't a shoo in for anything.

This is a tossup, and I go as far to estimate Hassan should have the long term edge here.

Note: This is also the polling firm from my election game. Ahahahaha.

[MT Treasurer]

These are relatively poor results for Sununu/the GOP (worse than I expected) given Hassan's underwhelming favorability numbers and Sununu's sky-high approval rating. Hassan is vulnerable, but the fundamentals of the state work against the GOP here in a way they don’t (or at least do far less) in AZ/NV, which is why I don’t buy that Hassan is (especially 'by far') the most vulnerable D incumbent even if she attracts a top-tier recruit. I’m not basing this on this or any other poll (especially from UNH), but underestimating the state's strong and stubborn Democratic lean at the federal level is foolish.

[KaiserDave]

These are relatively poor results for Sununu/the GOP (worse than I expected) given Hassan's underwhelming favorability numbers and Sununu's sky-high approval rating. Hassan is vulnerable, but the fundamentals of the state work against the GOP here in a way they don’t (or at least do far less) in AZ/NV, which is why I don’t buy that Hassan is (especially 'by far') the most vulnerable D incumbent even if she attracts a top-tier recruit. I’m not basing this on this or any other poll (especially from UNH), but underestimating the state's strong and stubborn Democratic lean at the federal level is foolish.

Ah, old IndyRep is back! Glorious news! The Angry Women will never give in!

[WD]

Surprisingly decent numbers for Hassan.

[KaiserDave]

I really do see New Hampshire ending up more like Massachusetts and Vermont in the future. It's a state that is educated, secular, and socially libertarian, not exactly where the GOP is at right now.

[TML]

It goes to show that Sununu could definitely turn into the Republican version of Steve Bullock or Mike Sullivan should he decide to challenge Hassan.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bullock lost due to fact Green New Deal hurt his chances in Oil enriched MT and so did Boiler.

If Joe Kennedy won the primary instead of Market, Joe Kennedy would of campaigned for Bullock they were friends and Green New Deal wouldn't have damaged Bullock as much.

That's why I am supporting Fetterman he can campaign for other D's not just himself.

No one wanted Market or Kenynetta to campaign for them

Joe Kennedy and Fetterman will campaign for other Ds

[SnowLabrador]

This makes me feel a bit better about Hassan's odds; Sununu's numbers are probably best right now before he announces his campaign. That said, Hassan isn't doing herself any favors by opposing the minimum wage increase.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

There is always the risk of this being a Weld situation like in 1996. A popular Governor doesn't always translate that popularity to a Senate bid, especially when the state is hostile territory overall for that party.

[Left Wing]

Also worth noting that University of New Hampshire actually underestimated Shaheen in their final polls for 2020.

[MT Treasurer]

Ah, old IndyRep is back! Glorious news! The Angry Women will never give in!

I’ve been trying hard to restrain myself since 2018 in particular, but yes, Van Ostern losing by so much more than Molly Kelly was certainly... interesting, now wasn’t it? 7% of NH women are 'undecided' in this poll, as opposed to only 3% of NH men. Will be sad to see Sununu fall behind once Hassan ramps up her misandrist dog whistling 'unlocking New Hampshire women's potential'/'protecting Granite Staters' reproductive rights' campaign.

But tell me more about how Republicans need to run fiscally responsible, 'pro-choice' Republicans like Scott Brown and Chris Sununu to appeal to middle-aged Nashua women who listen to Cyndi Lauper on vinyl and think the GOP is a misogynist hate group.

Surprisingly decent numbers for Hassan.

Maybe, just maybe, it’s because NH is a blue state and not the absurdly elastic and unpredictable swing state people are making it out to be?

[Skye]

We're NOT having this discourse in February 2021.

[beesley]

I don't think these are wholly bad numbers for Sununu himself as the discussion might make out, but not as good as could've been. They are much better than the numbers for Ayotte, and Bolduc and Lewandowski would be terrible candidates as it stands.

[MT Treasurer]

I really do see New Hampshire ending up more like Massachusetts and Vermont in the future. It's a state that is educated, secular, and socially libertarian, not exactly where the GOP is at right now.

It’s also a state where the GOP is extremely reliant on suburban/exurban strength (and many of those areas are quite affluent and/or home to Democratic-leaning commuters and/or prone to a moderate/liberal brand of conservatism which the GOP is increasingly abandoning, at least rhetorically) along the MA border and where even the potentially R-trending parts of the state in NH-02 are some of the most culturally liberal and/or educated rural/small-town areas of New England, which means that Democrats can always count on a solid floor there (unlike in ME-02). Really the only R-trending part of the state is probably the North Country at this point, but that’s obviously nowhere near enough to counteract the bleeding elsewhere.

NH has long been an anomaly and really doesn’t fit in with the current GOP coalition, not unlike what IA used to be for Democrats. Sununu may still win this race, but the fact that he needs everything to go his way doesn’t exactly inspire confidence about the state's long-term political trajectory. I do think the Senate races in NH and IA in 2014 were signs of things to come.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I’ve been trying hard to restrain myself since 2018 in particular,

Has it really been that long?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Yeah if Sununu wins he's not going to win by much but I still feel he would be favored provided he doesn't cower to the right wingers in the legislature

[Hope For A New Era]

MT-SEN 2020.

Next!

[Pollster]

I mentioned this in another thread, but if Sununu's internal numbers look like these, it's really easy to see him opting for an easy reelection over a much more difficult Senate race.

On an unrelated note, I'm a bit surprised to see Ayotte's overall name recognition so low. According to the writeup, only 3% of voters don't know Hassan and 0% don't know Sununu, but 17% don't know Ayotte. This is quite high for someone who is only a few years out of office, after previously holding statewide posts for quite some time beforehand.

[kwabbit]

Very underwhelming for Sununu. If he was up by 10, then he would be more sure to run but up by 2 is a gamble. We'll have to wonder what this race will look like in 6 months.

I feel like if the Republican 'wave' ever materializes, it might come as a late surge a la 2014. Biden and the Democrats are going to have a lot of good news for the next year; it wouldn't surprise me for Biden to be at +15 approval on 1/20/22. When Biden has good approval, Democrats will be looking strong for 2022.

[VAR]

Guys, this is UNH.

[Left Wing]

Guys, this is UNH.

I can't tell if you are trying to disparage their polling or compliment it, anyway their final poll was Biden+8, Shaheen+11 so, decently accurate at least last year.

[Pericles]

Yeah I expected Sununu to have a stronger lead. On the other hand, this is likely a high point for Democrats in the national environment. By November 2022 the national environment is likely to shift to the right, maybe Sununu loses some personal popularity boost but makes up for it with the midterm environment shift. We'll need to see more polling for this race.

[WD]

Guys, this is UNH.

Their last 2020 poll was Biden+8, Shaheen+11. Not sure what the problem is.